“U.S. businesses sold goods and services at slightly
higher prices in August, though inflation pressures remained weak overall. The producer-price index, a measure of inflation experienced
by businesses, rose 0.2% in August from a month earlier…” Story at…
Crude Inventories (OilPrice.com)
“Crude oil prices inched up after the EIA reported a
smaller-than-expected build of 5.9 million barrels in crude oil inventories for
the week to September 8, after a 4.6-million-barrel
build in the prior week due to the Gulf Coast refinery
shutdowns.” Story at…
FEDGIBBERISH (Real Investment Advice)
“What Lael Brainard and her [Fed] colleagues fail to understand
is that excessive Fed policy has diverted capital away from productive
investments that would generate the inflation and economic growth she and her
colleagues so desperately seek to conjure. The bottom line is they do not
understand the effect that eight years of excessive stimulus have had on the
economy and are clearly unaware of what must be done to solve the global
economic malaise.” Commentary at…
MARKET REPORT / ANALYSIS
-Wednesday the S&P 500 rose about 0.1% to 2498
another all-time high.
-VIX was down about 1% to 10.5.
-The yield on the 10-year Treasury rose to 2.188%.
Bearish Signs…
-Bollinger Bands are back to neutral today as the upper
band climbed higher than the Index. It’s still elevated so this one leans
toward bearish.
-RSI remains elevated, but not yet overbought.
-The old standby advance-decline ratio remains
overbought.
Bull Signs…
-The sum of 17-indicators climbed higher on the day.
-Advancing volume is headed up and that’s a positive.
-Money Trend moved up.
-Smart Money bounced up.
-New-high/new-low data looks good.
Overall the short-term indicators were Bullish to neutral
today.
Longer-term, I’m cautiously bullish; I will worry more if
the numbers deteriorate, but I remain fully invested. There isn’t any news now
that signals a bear market and long-term indicators remain neutral.
TODAY’S RANKING OF 15 ETFs (Ranked Daily)
The top ranked ETF receives 100%. The rest are then ranked
based on their momentum relative to the leading ETF. While momentum isn’t stock performance per
se, momentum is closely related to stock performance. For example, over the 4-months
from Oct thru mid-February 2016, the number 1 ranked Financials (XLF) outperformed
the S&P 500 by nearly 20%.
*For additional background on the ETF ranking system see
NTSM Page at…
Biotechnology (IBB) remained #1 today. Avoid XLE; its
120-day moving average is falling.
SHORT-TERM TRADING PORTFOLIO - 2017 (Small-% of the
total portfolio)
LONG
-“In a
bull market, you can only be long or neutral.” – D. Gartman
-“The best policy
is to avoid shorting unless a major bear market is underway and downside
momentum has been thoroughly established. Even then, your timing must sometimes
be perfect. In a bull market the trend is truly your friend, and trading
against the grain is usually a fool's errand.” – Clif Droke.
-“Commandment #1: “Thou
Shall Not Trade Against the Trend.” - James P. Arthur Huprich
WEDNESDAY MARKET INTERNALS (NYSE DATA)
Market Internals
remained Positive on the market.
Market Internals are a decent trend-following analysis of
current market action, but should not be used alone for short term trading.
They are usually right, but they are often late. They are most useful when they diverge from
the Index. In 2014, using these
internals alone would have made a 9% return vs. 13% for the S&P 500 (in on Positive,
out on Negative – no shorting).
LONG TERM INDICATOR
Wednesday, Price,
Sentiment, VIX & Volume indicators were neutral. With VIX recently
below 10 for a couple of days (May, June, July and August), VIX may be prone to
incorrect signals. Usually, a rising VIX is a bad market sign; now it may move
up, but that might just signal normalization of VIX, i.e., VIX and the Index
may both rise. As an indicator, VIX is out of the picture for a while.
MY INVESTED STOCK POSITION:
TSP (RETIREMENT ACCOUNT – GOV EMPLOYEES) ALLOCATION
I increased
stock allocation to 50% stocks in the S&P 500 Index fund (C-Fund) 24 March
2017 in my long-term accounts, based on short-term indicators. The remainder
is 50% G-Fund (Government securities). This is a conservative retiree
allocation, but I consider it fully invested for my situation.
