“The number of Americans filing for benefits jumped to
its highest level in more than two years last week amid a surge in applications
in hurricane-ravaged Texas. The underlying trend remained consistent with a
firming jobs market.” Story at…
https://www.cnbc.com/2017/09/07/us-weekly-jobless-claims-total-298000-vs-241000-claims-expected.html
CPI (MarketWatch)
“The consumer price index, or cost of living, surged 0.4%
last month to mark the biggest increase since January, the
government said Thursday.”
Story at…
My cmt: This was due primarily to gasoline price hikes.
SEPTEMBER CORRECTION? – PROBABLY NOT (Financial Sense)
“The S&P 500 has had quite a run since the early 2016
lows, not experiencing even a slight pullback of 5% or more, leading many to
believe that the market would wobble during the seasonally weak period of
August and September…Given little signs of anxiety coming from the credit
markets and a resurgence in market internal momentum, it appears as though the
path of least resistance is higher…” - Chris Puplava, Chief
Investment Officer at PFS Group. Commentary
at…
MARKET REPORT / ANALYSIS
-Thursday the S&P 500 dropped about 0.1% to 2496.
-VIX was down about 0.6% to 10.44.
-The yield on the 10-year Treasury slipped slightly to
2.186%.
Bearish Signs…
-Bollinger Bands remains neutral today as the upper band
climbed higher than the Index. It’s still elevated so this one leans toward
bearish.
-RSI remains elevated, but not yet overbought.
-The old standby advance-decline ratio remains
overbought.
-The sum of 17-indicators dipped slightly today.
Bull Signs…
-Advancing volume is still headed up.
-Money Trend moved up nicely. (This indicator attempts to
follow the general concept of Lowry
Research and their supply and demand methodology for stock market analysis.
Their concept is based on a detailed stock-by-stock analysis while mine is an
estimate based on readily available Macro data.
Theirs is much more accurate, but that doesn’t mean mine isn’t useful.)
-Smart Money remains headed up on a smoothed basis. (This
reflects late day action and that is considered to be an indication of what the
Pros are doing.)
-New-high/new-low data still looks good.
Overall the short-term indicators were Bullish to neutral
today.
Longer-term, I’m cautiously bullish; I will worry more if
the numbers deteriorate, but I remain fully invested. There isn’t any news now
that signals a bear market and long-term indicators remain neutral.
TODAY’S RANKING OF 15 ETFs (Ranked Daily)
The top ranked ETF receives 100%. The rest are then
ranked based on their momentum relative to the leading ETF. While momentum isn’t stock performance per
se, momentum is closely related to stock performance. For example, over the 4-months
from Oct thru mid-February 2016, the number 1 ranked Financials (XLF) outperformed
the S&P 500 by nearly 20%.
*For additional background on the ETF ranking system see
NTSM Page at…
Biotechnology (IBB) remained #1 today. Avoid XLE; its
120-day moving average is falling.
SHORT-TERM TRADING PORTFOLIO - 2017 (Small-% of the
total portfolio)
LONG
-“In a bull market, you can only be long or
neutral.” – D. Gartman
-“The best policy
is to avoid shorting unless a major bear market is underway and downside
momentum has been thoroughly established. Even then, your timing must sometimes
be perfect. In a bull market the trend is truly your friend, and trading
against the grain is usually a fool's errand.” – Clif Droke.
-“Commandment #1: “Thou Shall Not Trade Against the Trend.” - James P. Arthur Huprich
THURSDAY MARKET INTERNALS (NYSE DATA)
Market Internals
remained Positive on the market.
Market Internals are a decent trend-following analysis of
current market action, but should not be used alone for short term trading.
They are usually right, but they are often late. They are most useful when they diverge from
the Index. In 2014, using these
internals alone would have made a 9% return vs. 13% for the S&P 500 (in on Positive,
out on Negative – no shorting).
LONG TERM INDICATOR
Thursday, Price,
Sentiment, VIX & Volume indicators were neutral. With VIX recently
below 10 for a couple of days (May, June, July and August), VIX may be prone to
incorrect signals. Usually, a rising VIX is a bad market sign; now it may move
up, but that might just signal normalization of VIX, i.e., VIX and the Index
may both rise. As an indicator, VIX is out of the picture for a while.
MY INVESTED STOCK POSITION:
TSP (RETIREMENT ACCOUNT – GOV EMPLOYEES) ALLOCATION
I increased
stock allocation to 50% stocks in the S&P 500 Index fund (C-Fund) 24 March
2017 in my long-term accounts, based on short-term indicators. The remainder
is 50% G-Fund (Government securities). This is a conservative retiree
allocation, but I consider it fully invested for my situation.
