Major automakers on Tuesday reported higher new vehicles
sales for March on the back of a strong U.S. economy and big consumer
discounts, sending shares in Detroit’s automakers up in morning trading.” Story
at…
INTEL (CNBC)
“Intel's stock dropped sharply on Monday after Bloomberg
reported that Apple would ditch Intel chips for an in-house model on Mac
computers. Stifel reiterates its buy rating for Intel shares. The firm
estimates Apple generated only 4 percent of Intel's revenue last year and less
than 1 percent of its profits.” Story at…
MARKET REPORT / ANALYSIS
-Tuesday the S&P 500 was Up about 1.3% to 2614.
-VIX was Down about 11% to 21.1.
-The yield on the 10-year Treasury rose to 2.781%.
Correction Update:
Today was trading-day 46 since the prior top. The S&P
500 was 9% below the top and was 1.1% above the prior correction bottom. On average, corrections >10% last
68-days…Corrections <10% have lasted 32-days.
Capitulation marks the bottom when investors throw in the
towel and panic-sell. Looking at yesterday’s numbers we note that there was
strong buying from 2PM into the close and the closing Tick (sum final trades of
the day, up or down) was a huge +804. To have capitulation, we need to see a
number more like a minus 804
or even lower. A -1000 would make me happy. My guess is: No end for the
correction yet. We’ll see.
Here’s a rundown of today’s indicators.
-My daily sum of 17 Indicators improved from -4 to +1;
that’s a reversal of Friday’s numbers that went from -4 to +3. The 10-day
smoothed version was improved from -50 to -46.
-RSI was improved from yesterday’s oversold reading and
was 33.
-Money Trend is now slightly bullish.
-Smart Money (based on late day action) was slightly
bullish.
-The cyclical industrials are now flat and seem to be
trying to reverse upward compared to the S&P 500. If it continues that would be a bullish sign.
-Market Internals improved from Negative to Neutral on
the Market.
-Up-volume was strong today and on a 10-day basis is now
headed up, a bullish indication.
MOMENTUM ANALYSIS IS NOW NEARLY WORTHLESS. As one can see
below in both momentum charts, most of the issues I track are now in negative
territory, i.e., few have any upward momentum. That’s just an indication that
the market is in correction mode and most stocks have been headed down.
TODAY’S RANKING OF
15 ETFs (Ranked Daily)
The top ranked ETF receives 100%. The rest are then
ranked based on their momentum relative to the leading ETF. While momentum isn’t stock performance per
se, momentum is closely related to stock performance. For example, over the 4-months
from Oct thru mid-February 2016, the number 1 ranked Financials (XLF) outperformed
the S&P 500 by nearly 20%. In 2017 Technology (XLK) was ranked in the top 3
Momentum Plays for 52% of all trading days in 2017 (if I counted correctly.)
XLK was up 35% on the year while the S&P 500 was up 18%.
*For additional background on the ETF ranking system see
NTSM Page at…
TODAY’S RANKING OF THE DOW 30 STOCKS (Ranked Daily)
The top ranked stock receives 100%. The rest are then
ranked based on their momentum relative to the leading stock.
*I rank the Dow 30 similarly to the ETF ranking system.
For more details, see NTSM Page at…
TUESDAY MARKET INTERNALS (NYSE DATA)
Market Internals improved
to Neutral on the market.
Market Internals are a decent trend-following analysis of
current market action but should not be used alone for short term trading. They
are usually right, but they are often late.
They are most useful when they diverge from the Index. In 2014, using these internals alone would
have made a 9% return vs. 13% for the S&P 500 (in on Positive, out on
Negative – no shorting).
INTERMEDIATE / LONG-TERM INDICATOR
21 March, I cut
stock holdings from 50% to 35% with the remainder in a mix of stocks and
(mostly short-term) bonds. I previously reduced stock exposure on 31 Jan.
Intermediate/Long-Term
Model: Tuesday, the VIX and Volume indicators were negative; Price &
Sentiment were neutral.
