“U.S. home sales increased for a second straight month in
March amid a rebound in activity in the Northeast and Midwest regions, but a
dearth of houses on the market and higher prices remain headwinds as the spring
selling season kicks off… The National Association of Realtors said on Monday
that existing home sales rose 1.1 percent…” Story at…
MARKET REPORT / ANALYSIS
-Monday the S&P 500 was essentially unchanged at
2670.
-VIX was Down about 3% to 16.34.
-The yield on the 10-year Treasury rose to 2.975%.
-My daily sum of 17 Indicators dipped from +1 to -1;
the 10-day smoothed version dipped from +25 to +21. Not much change. Indicators
are generally neutral as these numbers imply.
The S&P 500 remained below its lower trend line and
the 50-dMA for a second day. We don’t like to see that. The Index is 3% above
the correction low so if there is a retest, it won’t have far to fall. Of course, we have to hope the retest, if it
were to occur, would be a successful one.
Smart Money continues buying late in the day even on the
down days, so this indicator has turned positive and is moving sharply up – a bullish
indication. Closing Tick has been positive too. It was +201 today.
Money Trend remains sharply positive.
While some indicators are very bullish, overall, Indicators
are only tipped slightly to the Bull side. I got back in at a fully invested
position because of falling VIX. Naturally,
VIX has been rising since then.
There is still a chance the
S&P 500 will retest the 8 Feb low, but I am following my long-term
indicator. If the 10-year rates continue up, (now 2.975%) this could turn out
to be a mistake. We’ll see.
MOMENTUM ANALYSIS IS STILL QUESTIONABLE BUT GETTING
BETTER. As one can see below in both momentum charts, there are still a lot of
issues in negative territory, i.e., they have weak upward momentum. That’s just
an indication that the market is in correction mode and most stocks have been
headed down.
TODAY’S RANKING OF
15 ETFs (Ranked Daily)
The top ranked ETF receives 100%. The rest are then
ranked based on their momentum relative to the leading ETF. While momentum isn’t stock performance per
se, momentum is closely related to stock performance. For example, over the 4-months
from Oct thru mid-February 2016, the number 1 ranked Financials (XLF) outperformed
the S&P 500 by nearly 20%. In 2017 Technology (XLK) was ranked in the top 3
Momentum Plays for 52% of all trading days in 2017 (if I counted correctly.)
XLK was up 35% on the year while the S&P 500 was up 18%.
*For additional background on the ETF ranking system see
NTSM Page at…
TODAY’S RANKING OF THE DOW 30 STOCKS (Ranked Daily)
The top ranked stock receives 100%. The rest are then
ranked based on their momentum relative to the leading stock. (On 5 Apr 2018 I
corrected a coding/graphing error that has consistently shown Nike
incorrectly.)
*I rank the Dow 30 similarly to the ETF ranking system.
For more details, see NTSM Page at…
MONDAY MARKET INTERNALS (NYSE DATA)
Market Internals
remained Neutral on the market.
Market Internals are a decent trend-following analysis of
current market action but should not be used alone for short term trading. They
are usually right, but they are often late.
They are most useful when they diverge from the Index. In 2014, using these internals alone would
have made a 9% return vs. 13% for the S&P 500 (in on Positive, out on
Negative – no shorting).
Wednesday, 18 Apr
2018 I increased stock investments from 35% to 50% based on the
Intermediate/Long-Term Indicator that turned positive on the 17th. For me,
fully invested is a balanced 50% stock portfolio.
INTERMEDIATE / LONG-TERM INDICATOR
Intermediate/Long-Term
Indicator: Monday, the VIX, Volume, Price and Sentiment indicators were
neutral. Overall this is a NEUTRAL indication.
