“New orders for U.S.-made goods rebounded in February,
boosted by strong demand for transportation equipment and a range of other
products, pointing to a strengthening manufacturing sector.” Story at…
ISM SERVICES
The Institute of Supply Management's measure of
non-manufacturing firms ticked down to 58.8 in March, slightly lower than the
expected 59. Growth in the service sector slowed for the second month in a row.”
Story at…
CRUDE INVENTORIES (oilprice.com)
“The Energy Information Administration reported a
4.6-million draw in crude oil inventories for the week to March 30…A day
earlier [Tuesday], the American Petroleum Institute surprised traders with a
crude oil inventory draw of 3.28 million barrels…” Story at…
MARKET REPORT / ANALYSIS
-Wednesday the S&P 500 was Up about 1.2% to 2645.
-VIX was Down about 5% to 20.06.
-The yield on the 10-year Treasury rose to 2.811%.
I noted yesterday that Capitulation marks the bottom when
investors throw in the towel and panic-sell. I overstated the Tick value when I
said I’d like to see a -1000 value in Tick to call a bottom. That might be true
for a major crash. For normal run-of-the-mill corrections there is a slight
tendency for Tick to be negative, but we wouldn’t expect a huge minus number. On the other hand, the large positive number
(+804) that we saw Monday would not be normal for a bottom or a re-test of the bottom.
-My daily sum of 17 Indicators improved from +1 to +4; the
10-day smoothed version was improved from -46 to -33.
Correction Update:
Today was trading-day 47 since the prior top. The S&P
500 was 7.9% below the top and was 2.2% above the prior correction bottom. On average, corrections >10% have lasted
68-days…Corrections <10% have lasted 32-days.
Chart-wise, the Index made a triple bottom Monday and
that is bullish, but I still can’t call a bottom. We’ve seen too much
conflicting evidence; however, that doesn’t mean we couldn’t get a BUY signal tomorrow.
We’ll see…
MOMENTUM ANALYSIS IS NOW NEARLY WORTHLESS. As one can see
below in both momentum charts, most of the issues I track are now in negative
territory, i.e., few have any upward momentum. That’s just an indication that
the market is in correction mode and most stocks have been headed down.
TODAY’S RANKING OF
15 ETFs (Ranked Daily)
*For additional background on the ETF ranking system see
NTSM Page at…
TODAY’S RANKING OF THE DOW 30 STOCKS (Ranked Daily)
The top ranked stock receives 100%. The rest are then
ranked based on their momentum relative to the leading stock.
*I rank the Dow 30 similarly to the ETF ranking system.
For more details, see NTSM Page at…
WEDNESDAY MARKET INTERNALS (NYSE DATA)
Market Internals remained
Neutral on the market.
Market Internals are a decent trend-following analysis of
current market action but should not be used alone for short term trading. They
are usually right, but they are often late.
They are most useful when they diverge from the Index. In 2014, using these internals alone would
have made a 9% return vs. 13% for the S&P 500 (in on Positive, out on
Negative – no shorting).
INTERMEDIATE / LONG-TERM INDICATOR
21 March, I cut
stock holdings from 50% to 35% with the remainder in a mix of stocks and
(mostly short-term) bonds. I previously reduced stock exposure on 31 Jan.
Intermediate/Long-Term
Indicator: Wednesday, the VIX and Price indicators turned bullish; the Volume
indicator was negative; Sentiment was elevated but remained neutral. Overall,
the Intermediate/Long-term Indicator remains Neutral.
