Friday, June 22, 2018

Bullish Stock Call … INTEL … Stock Market Analysis… ETF Trading … Dow 30 Ranking

ALL 35 TIMES STOCKS WERE HIGHER (CNBC)
"We're still overweight stocks at the expense of bonds and we really do expect to hold that positioning at least until the end of the year before we would potentially downshift to neutral," Tepper told CNBC's "Trading Nation" on Thursday. "Our research says absolutely no recession until 2020, so it does make sense to stay overweight stocks right now." Story at…
 
INTEL (CNBC)
“Shares of the chipmaker slid 2.38 percent on Thursday after Krzanich [CEO] resigned, effective immediately, for having what the company called a "consensual relationship with an Intel employee"…"What matters to me is that the stock is now too cheap to be ignored because at the same time they released [the] Krzanich [news], they also told you that business was better than expected thanks to strong growth across all segments," the host of "Mad Money" [Jim Cramer] said Thursday. "The stock looks good to me." Story at…
My cmt: The PE for Intel is 22.8. The Dow 30 PE was 24.2 according to Birinyi Associates.
 
MARKET REPORT / ANALYSIS         
-Friday the S&P 500 was up about 0.2% to 2755.
-VIX dipped about 6% to 13.77. 
-The yield on the 10-year Treasury slipped slightly to 2.893%.
 
My daily sum of 17 Indicators was unchanged at -6, while the 10-day smoothed version dropped from -7 to -18. A number below zero shows most indicators are bearish.
 
RSI (14-d,SMA) is a neutral 54; the Bollinger Band indicator is neutral.
 
Breadth, measured as the % of stocks on the NYSE that advanced over the last 10-days, improved a bit to 45.6%. (More stocks have been going down over the last 2-weeks than have been going up.) This is bearish and the market internals I track remain negative.
 
The most worrisome indicator right now remains the large spread between the Cyclical Industrials (XLI-ETF) and the S&P 500.  XLI is underperforming the S&P 500 on every time frame I track. When investors are worried they sell cyclicals.
 
The chart looks ok now so I won’t be concerned about the negative indicators for the time being.
 
My longer-term indicator system remained neutral. I remain cautiously bullish.
 
MOMENTUM ANALYSIS:  
TODAY’S RANKING OF  15 ETFs (Ranked Daily)
The top ranked ETF receives 100%. The rest are then ranked based on their momentum relative to the leading ETF.  While momentum isn’t stock performance per se, momentum is closely related to stock performance. For example, over the 4-months from Oct thru mid-February 2016, the number 1 ranked Financials (XLF) outperformed the S&P 500 by nearly 20%. In 2017 Technology (XLK) was ranked in the top 3 Momentum Plays for 52% of all trading days in 2017 (if I counted correctly.) XLK was up 35% on the year while the S&P 500 was up 18%.
*For additional background on the ETF ranking system see NTSM Page at…
 
TODAY’S RANKING OF THE DOW 30 STOCKS (Ranked Daily)
The top ranked stock receives 100%. The rest are then ranked based on their momentum relative to the leading stock. (On 5 Apr 2018 I corrected a coding/graphing error that had consistently shown Nike incorrectly.)
*I rank the Dow 30 similarly to the ETF ranking system. For more details, see NTSM Page at…
 
FRIDAY MARKET INTERNALS (NYSE DATA)
Market Internals remained Negative on the market.
Market Internals are a decent trend-following analysis of current market action but should not be used alone for short term trading. They are usually right, but they are often late.  They are most useful when they diverge from the Index.  In 2014, using these internals alone would have made a 9% return vs. 13% for the S&P 500 (in on Positive, out on Negative – no shorting).
 
 
18 Apr 2018 I increased stock investments from 35% to 50% based on the Intermediate/Long-Term Indicator that turned positive on the 17th. (It has since turned Neutral.) For me, fully invested is a balanced 50% stock portfolio. 50% is my minimum unless I am in full defense mode.
 
On 10 May 2018 I added stock positions to increase Stock investments to 58% based on more evidence that the correction is over. This is high for me given that we are late in this cycle (and as a retiree), but it indicates my bullishness after the correction. I’ll sell these new positions quickly if the market turns down.
 
INTERMEDIATE / LONG-TERM INDICATOR
Intermediate/Long-Term Indicator: Friday, the Price, Sentiment, VIX & Volume indicators were neutral. Overall this is a NEUTRAL indication.