“U.S. existing home sales slipped 0.4 percent in May, as
the prolonged shortage of properties on the market is deterring home-buying.”
Story at…
CRUDE INVENTORIES (OilPrice.com)
“Crude oil prices remained relatively stable after the
Energy Information Administration reported a
draw of 5.9 million barrels in U.S. crude oil inventories for the week to June
15.” Story at…
MARKET REPORT / ANALYSIS
-Wednesday the S&P 500 was up about 0.2% to 2767.
-VIX dropped about 4% to 12.79.
-The yield on the 10-year Treasury rose to 2.933%.
115 stocks made new-highs on the NYSE while only 38
stocks made new-lows. That’s a nice
switch from yesterday’s numbers.
New-high/new-low data is the aircraft carrier of indicators – it usually
takes a long time to turn around. The turn back to a positive spread today is a
nice sign.
My daily sum of 17 Indicators improved slightly from -6
to -5, while the 10-day smoothed version dropped from +14 to +4. A number above
zero shows most indicators are bullish. The improvement on the day was small, but I'll take an optimistic stance
and say the sum of indicators is Neutral.
Breadth, measured as the % of stocks on the NYSE that
advanced over the last 10-days, has dropped to 47.1%. (More stocks have been
going down over the last 2-weeks than have been going up.) This is generally bearish
and the market internals I track remain negative.
RSI is an elevated (but neutral) 71; the Bollinger Band
indicator is neutral.
My longer-term indicator system improved to bullish; I
remain a bull.
MOMENTUM ANALYSIS:
TODAY’S RANKING OF
15 ETFs (Ranked Daily)
The top ranked ETF receives 100%. The rest are then
ranked based on their momentum relative to the leading ETF. While momentum isn’t stock performance per
se, momentum is closely related to stock performance. For example, over the 4-months
from Oct thru mid-February 2016, the number 1 ranked Financials (XLF) outperformed
the S&P 500 by nearly 20%. In 2017 Technology (XLK) was ranked in the top 3
Momentum Plays for 52% of all trading days in 2017 (if I counted correctly.)
XLK was up 35% on the year while the S&P 500 was up 18%.
*For additional background on the ETF ranking system see
NTSM Page at…
TODAY’S RANKING OF THE DOW 30 STOCKS (Ranked Daily)
The top ranked stock receives 100%. The rest are then
ranked based on their momentum relative to the leading stock. (On 5 Apr 2018 I
corrected a coding/graphing error that had consistently shown Nike
incorrectly.)
*I rank the Dow 30 similarly to the ETF ranking system.
For more details, see NTSM Page at…
WEDNESDAY MARKET INTERNALS (NYSE DATA)
Market Internals remained
Negative on the market.
Market Internals are a decent trend-following analysis of
current market action but should not be used alone for short term trading. They
are usually right, but they are often late.
They are most useful when they diverge from the Index. In 2014, using these internals alone would
have made a 9% return vs. 13% for the S&P 500 (in on Positive, out on
Negative – no shorting).
18 Apr 2018 I
increased stock investments from 35% to 50% based on the Intermediate/Long-Term
Indicator that turned positive on the 17th. (It has since turned Neutral.) For
me, fully invested is a balanced 50% stock portfolio. 50% is my minimum unless
I am in full defense mode.
On 10 May 2018 I
added stock positions to increase Stock investments to 58% based on more
evidence that the correction is over. This is high for me given that we are
late in this cycle (and as a retiree), but it indicates my bullishness after
the correction. I’ll sell these new positions quickly if the market turns down.
INTERMEDIATE / LONG-TERM INDICATOR
Intermediate/Long-Term
Indicator: Wednesday, the Price & VIX indicators were positive; the
Sentiment & Volume indicators were neutral. Overall this is a BULLISH
indication.
