JOBLESS CLAIMS (Bloomberg)
“Filings for U.S. unemployment benefits unexpectedly
dropped, falling to the lowest level since October 1969 and suggesting little
sign of cooling in a tight labor market. Jobless claims decreased to 196,000 in
the week ended April 6…” Story at…
PPI (MarketWatch)
“The wholesale cost of U.S. goods and services surged in
March, but almost all of the increase reflected the higher cost of gas.
Evidence of rising inflation was otherwise largely absent.
MARKET REPORT / ANALYSIS
-Thursday the S&P 500 was up a fraction remaining at 2888.
-VIX dropped about 2% to 13.02.
-The yield on the 10-year Treasury rose to 2.503%.
This will sound like another repeat (because it is), but little has changed…
We still have the problem of too many positive days. Markets don’t go up forever. As of today, 9 of the last 10 days have been
up-days. Over the last month 14-days have been up-days; the monthly number is
not bad, so this isn't a disaster for the bulls. Overall, this indicator is mildly bearish and
we might expect a few down-days in response.
Volume continues to be low…still. Thursday, it was again about 15% below the
monthly average. We still have to wonder if buyers went on strike, but it may
just represent caution by investors. We
are nearing the old S&P 500 all-time high and Earnings Season is about to
get underway.
My daily sum of 20 Indicators improved from +3 to zero (a
positive number is bullish; negatives are bearish) while the 10-day smoothed
version that negates the daily fluctuations climbed from +43 to +45. Most of
these indicators are short-term.
I’ll just watch a bit longer and see what the markets are
doing. I still am looking for a couple of down days. Earnings season may send
tell me what to do investment wise. I am
bullish now, but still looking for a better entry point.
TOP / BOTTOM INDICATOR SCALE OF 1 TO 10
Today’s Reading: Zero (Solidly Neutral.)
Most Recent Day with a value other than Zero: 21 March
2019 value = -1
(1) +10 Max Bullish / -10 Max Bearish)
(2) -4 or below is a Sell sign. +4 or better is a Buy
Sign.
MOMENTUM ANALYSIS:
TODAY’S RANKING OF
15 ETFs (Ranked Daily)
The top ranked ETF receives 100%. The rest are then
ranked based on their momentum relative to the leading ETF. While momentum isn’t stock performance per
se, momentum is closely related to stock performance. For example, over the
4-months from Oct thru mid-February 2016, the number 1 ranked Financials (XLF)
outperformed the S&P 500 by nearly 20%. In 2017 Technology (XLK) was ranked
in the top 3 Momentum Plays for 52% of all trading days in 2017 (if I counted correctly.)
XLK was up 35% on the year while the S&P 500 was up 18%.
*For additional background on the ETF ranking system see
NTSM Page at…
TODAY’S RANKING OF THE DOW 30 STOCKS (Ranked Daily)
The top ranked stock receives 100%. The rest are then
ranked based on their momentum relative to the leading stock.
*I rank the Dow 30 similarly to the ETF ranking system.
For more details, see NTSM Page at…
THURSDAY MARKET INTERNALS (NYSE DATA)
Market Internals
remained NEUTRAL on the market.
Market Internals are a decent trend-following analysis of
current market action but should not be used alone for short term trading. They
are usually right, but they are often late.
They are most useful when they diverge from the Index. In 2014, using these internals alone would
have made a 9% return vs. 13% for the S&P 500 (in on Positive, out on
Negative – no shorting).
My current stock allocation is about 30% invested in
stocks as of 9 January 2019.
INTERMEDIATE / LONG-TERM INDICATOR
Thursday, the VOLUME,
VIX, PRICE and SENTIMENT indicators were neutral. Overall this is a NEUTRAL
indication.
