JOLTS (Bloomberg)
“U.S. job openings decreased in February by the most
since 2015 while still exceeding the number of unemployed Americans, a sign of
some potential relaxation in what’s been a consistently tight labor market.”
Story at…
SMALL BUSINESS OPTIMISM (NFIB)
“The NFIB Small
Business Optimism Index increased 0.1 points to 101.8 in March,
a historically strong level and an indication that small businesses continue to
power the economy after being briefly shaken by January’s government shutdown.
Overall, the Index anticipates solid growth, keeping the economy at “full
employment” with no signs of a recession in the near term.” Press release at…
JUNK BONDS SAY BEARS ARE WRONG (Heritage Capital)
“High yield bonds continue to quietly shock and surprise
at all-time highs. I’ve been saying this for years, but certainly of late, bull
markets do NOT end with behavior like this. Junk bonds usually top out long
before the stock market. Risk on remains in place. The bears are and have been
wrong.” - Paul Schatz, President Heritage Capital. Commentary at…
OBAMACARE’S UNHAPPY ANNVERSARY (Ron Paul Institute)
“Since Obamacare was enacted, individual health insurance
premiums have more than doubled while small businesses have been discouraged
from providing health insurance benefits…As leading health care
scholar John C. Goodman observed…a cancer patient from my hometown of Lake
Jackson, Texas who obtains insurance through Obamacare’s exchanges cannot get
treatment at nearby MD Anderson, one of the country’s top cancer treatment
centers….Any system combing subsidies that artificially increase demand with
regulations and mandates that, by raising costs, artificially limit supply inevitably
results in shortages, rationing, and lower quality. Therefore, no matter how
much Democrats spend or how many “reforms” Republicans enact, Obamacare and
other types of government-controlled health care will never “work.” – Senator
Ron Paul. Commentary at…
MARKET REPORT / ANALYSIS
-Tuesday the S&P 500 was down about 0.6% to 2878.
-VIX rose about 8% to 14.28.
-The yield on the 10-year Treasury rose to 2.504%.
Repeating: Volume continues to be low. Tuesday, it was again about 15% below the
monthly average. We still have to wonder if buyers went on strike, but it may
just represent caution by investors. We
are nearing the old S&P 500 all-time high and Earnings Season is about to
get underway.
My daily sum of 20 Indicators plunged from +10 to -3 (a
positive number is bullish; negatives are bearish) while the 10-day smoothed
version that negates the daily fluctuations climbed from +38 to +39. Most of
these indicators are short-term. I can’t remember seeing a 13-point swing down
and that’s what we had today.
I’ll just watch this week and see what the markets are doing.
Earnings season may send tell me what to do investment wise. I am bullish now, but still looking for a
better entry point.
TOP / BOTTOM INDICATOR SCALE OF 1 TO 10
Today’s Reading: Zero (Solidly Neutral.)
Most Recent Day with a value other than Zero: 21 March
2019 value = -1
(1) +10 Max Bullish / -10 Max Bearish)
(2) -4 or below is a Sell sign. +4 or better is a Buy
Sign.
MOMENTUM ANALYSIS:
TODAY’S RANKING OF
15 ETFs (Ranked Daily)
The top ranked ETF receives 100%. The rest are then
ranked based on their momentum relative to the leading ETF. While momentum isn’t stock performance per
se, momentum is closely related to stock performance. For example, over the
4-months from Oct thru mid-February 2016, the number 1 ranked Financials (XLF)
outperformed the S&P 500 by nearly 20%. In 2017 Technology (XLK) was ranked
in the top 3 Momentum Plays for 52% of all trading days in 2017 (if I counted
correctly.) XLK was up 35% on the year while the S&P 500 was up 18%.
*For additional background on the ETF ranking system see
NTSM Page at…
TODAY’S RANKING OF THE DOW 30 STOCKS (Ranked Daily)
The top ranked stock receives 100%. The rest are then
ranked based on their momentum relative to the leading stock.
*I rank the Dow 30 similarly to the ETF ranking system.
For more details, see NTSM Page at…
TUESDAY MARKET INTERNALS (NYSE DATA)
Market Internals switched
to NEUTRAL on the market.
Market Internals are a decent trend-following analysis of
current market action but should not be used alone for short term trading. They
are usually right, but they are often late.
They are most useful when they diverge from the Index. In 2014, using these internals alone would
have made a 9% return vs. 13% for the S&P 500 (in on Positive, out on
Negative – no shorting).
My current stock allocation is about 30% invested in
stocks as of 9 January 2019.
INTERMEDIATE / LONG-TERM INDICATOR
Tuesday, the VOLUME
indicator was positive. The VIX, PRICE and SENTIMENT indicators were neutral.
Overall this is a NEUTRAL indication.
