“Trade what you see; not what you think.” – The Old Fool,
Richard McCranie, trader extraordinaire.
“The big money is not in the buying and selling. But in
the waiting.” - Charlie Munger, Vice Chairman, Berkshire Hathaway
“In my decades of investing experience, I have not seen
such mindless and uninformed speculation as I have witnessed
recently. Indeed, in nominal dollar terms...it is far in excess of the dot.com
boom.” – Doug Cass.
FOMC MINUTES (CNBC)
“The meeting summary indicated that while officials saw
the economy gaining substantially, they see much more progress needed before
ultra-easy policy changes. Members said the $120 billion a month in bond
purchases “were providing substantial support to the economy. Participants
noted that it would likely be some time until substantial further progress
toward the Committee’s maximum-employment and price-stability goals would be
realized and that, consistent with the Committee’s outcome-based guidance,
asset purchases would continue at least at the current pace until then.” Story
at...
https://www.cnbc.com/2021/04/07/federal-reserve-minutes-from-march-meeting-.html
EIA CRUDE INVENTORIES (EIA)
“U.S. commercial crude oil inventories (excluding those
in the Strategic Petroleum Reserve) decreased by 3.5 million barrels from the
previous week. At 498.3 million barrels, U.S. crude oil inventories are about
3% above the five year average for this time of year.” Press release at...
https://ir.eia.gov/wpsr/wpsrsummary.pdf
THE PROGRESSIVE CASE FOR LIBEL REFORM (WSJ)
“Judge Laurence Silberman recently urged the Supreme
Court to overturn New York
Times v. Sullivan (1964), the landmark
decision that severely curtails the ability of public officials and (under
later precedents) public figures to secure damages for lies about them. Judge
Silberman is a conservative, but progressives should join him in calling for a
reconsideration of Sullivan. Reforming speech law may be our
best chance to confront America’s escalating crisis of truth as algorithmically
charged echo chambers exploit cognitive biases, and the sheer volume of digital
content makes fact-checking impossible.” – Jeremy Lewin, 2nd Year Harvard
Law student. Commentary at...
https://www.wsj.com/articles/the-progressive-case-for-libel-reform-11617638828
CORONAVIRUS (NTSM)
Here’s the latest from the COVID19 Johns Hopkins website as
of 5:45pm Wednesday. US total case numbers are on the left axis; daily numbers
are on the right side of the graph with the 10-dMA of daily numbers in Green.
MARKET REPORT / ANALYSIS
-Wednesday the S&P 500 rose
about 0.2% to 4080.
-VIX dipped about 5% to 17.16.
-The yield on the 10-year
Treasury rose to 1.674%.
Bollinger Bands are very close
to overbought today; RSI is not, so for now, I’ll ignore the Bollinger Band
warning. Top Indicators have improved and the only Top Indicator warning today
is: The S&P 500 is 14.4% above its 200-dM.
The daily sum of 20 Indicators
improved from +8 to +10 (a positive number is bullish; negatives are bearish);
the 10-day smoothed sum that smooths the daily fluctuations improved from +2 to
+18 (These numbers sometimes change after I post the blog based on data that
comes in late.) Most of these indicators are short-term and many are trend
following.
The Long Term NTSM indicator
ensemble remained BUY. Price, VIX & Volume are bullish; Sentiment is
neutral.
I remain Bullish, but I will pay attention and consider
cutting stock allocation back to 50% if we see too many negative signs.
MOMENTUM ANALYSIS:
TODAY’S RANKING OF 15 ETFs
(Ranked Daily)
The top ranked ETF receives
100%. The rest are then ranked based on their momentum relative to the leading
ETF.
*For additional background on
the ETF ranking system see NTSM Page at…
http://navigatethestockmarket.blogspot.com/p/exchange-traded-funds-etf-ranking.html
TODAY’S RANKING OF THE DOW 30
STOCKS (Ranked Daily)
Here’s the revised DOW 30 and
its momentum analysis. The top ranked stock receives 100%. The rest are then
ranked based on their momentum relative to the leading stock.
For more details, see NTSM
Page at…
https://navigatethestockmarket.blogspot.com/p/a-system-for-trading-dow-30-stocks-my_8.html
WEDNESDAY MARKET INTERNALS
(NYSE DATA)
Market Internals remained BULLISH on the market.
Market Internals are a decent
trend-following analysis of current market action, but should not be used alone
for short term trading. They are usually right, but they are often late. They are most useful when they diverge from
the Index.
Using the Short-term indicator in 2018 in SPY would have made a 5% gain instead of a 6% loss for buy-and-hold. The methodology was Buy on a POSITIVE indication and Sell on a NEGATIVE indication and stay out until the next POSITIVE indication. The back-test included 13-buys and 13-sells, or a trade every 2-weeks on average.
As of 9 March, my
stock-allocation is about 60% invested in stocks. You may wish to have a higher
or lower % invested in stocks depending on your risk tolerance. 50% is a
conservative position that I consider fully invested for most retirees.
As a retiree, 50% in the stock
market is about fully invested for me – it is a cautious and conservative
number. If I feel very confident, I might go to 60%; if a correction is deep
enough, and I can call a bottom, 80% would not be out of the question.
The markets have not
retested the lows on recent corrections and that left me under-invested on the
bounces. I will need to put less reliance on retests in the future.
