“Trade what you see; not what you think.” – The Old Fool,
Richard McCranie, trader extraordinaire.
“The big money is not in the buying and selling. But in
the waiting.” - Charlie Munger, Vice Chairman, Berkshire Hathaway
JOBLESS CLAIMS (YahooFinance)
“New weekly jobless claims unexpectedly increased last
week, even
as a broadening vaccination program and the return of some high-contact service
jobs took place...Initial jobless claims, week ended March 27: 719,000
vs. 675,000 expected and a revised 658,000 during the prior week...” Story
at...
ISM MANUFACTURING (ISM via PRnewswire)
"The March Manufacturing PMI® registered
64.7 percent, an increase of 3.9 percentage points from the February reading of
60.8 percent. This figure indicates expansion in the overall economy for the
10th month in a row...The manufacturing economy continued its recovery in
March. However, Survey Committee Members reported that their companies and
suppliers continue to struggle to meet increasing rates of demand due to coronavirus
(COVID-19) impacts limiting availability of parts and materials.” Press release
at...
CONSTRUCTION SPENDING (baynews9)
“U.S. construction spending fell in February after
several months of steady gains, likely because of unseasonably cold weather and
winter storms in the south. The Commerce Department said Thursday that spending
on building projects slipped 0.8% in February, after a 1.2% gain in January.”
Story at...
10 TRILLION FOR CLIMATE AND INFRASTRUCTURE (Mish Talk)
“On Monday, Sen. Edward J. Markey (D-Mass.) and Rep.
Debbie Dingell (D-Mich.) unveiled a climate and infrastructure plan that called
for $10 trillion in spending over the next decade.” – April Fools! Not the day;
these politicians. This is real.
“The saving grace of capitalism is failure. Good ideas
are rewarded, bad ideas fail. We don't have failure, we have bank bailouts,
student loan bailouts, housing bailouts, and so many moral hazard market
interventions by the Fed and Congress I cannot even name all the facilities or
tools. And without failure, you don't have capitalism.” – Mish Shedlock. Commentary
at...
My worry is that the spending won’t be covered by
revenues. Even Biden’s proposed increase
in Corporate taxes is short on revenue; it will raise a trillion dollars over
10 years, but his 2-trillion infrastructure spending would be spent in a much
shorter time. More $ to the National Debt that is already at WWII levels.
CORONAVIRUS (NTSM)
Here’s the latest from the COVID19 Johns Hopkins website
as of 5:45pm Thursday. US total case numbers are on the left axis; daily numbers
are on the right side of the graph with the 10-dMA of daily numbers in Green.
The trend is heading up, so we can see what CDC was worried about. Let’s hope
it levels off.
MARKET REPORT / ANALYSIS
-Thursday the S&P 500 rose
about 1.2% to 4020.
-VIX dipped about 11% to 17.33.
-The yield on the 10-year
Treasury dipped to 1.676%.
The S&P 500 made another new-high
today and the % of new-highs on the NYSE looks about average which is good. Breadth
improved with the % of issues advancing on the NYSE now at 53.8% over the last
10-days.
The daily sum of 20 Indicators
improved from +1 to +8 (a positive number is bullish; negatives are bearish);
the 10-day smoothed sum that smooths the daily fluctuations improved from -26
to -19 (These numbers sometimes change after I post the blog based on data that
comes in late.) Most of these indicators are short-term and many are trend
following.
The Long Term NTSM indicator
ensemble remained BUY. Price, Volume & VIX are bullish; Sentiment is
neutral.
I remain Bullish.
MOMENTUM ANALYSIS:
TODAY’S RANKING OF 15 ETFs
(Ranked Daily)
The top ranked ETF receives
100%. The rest are then ranked based on their momentum relative to the leading
ETF.
*For additional background on
the ETF ranking system see NTSM Page at…
http://navigatethestockmarket.blogspot.com/p/exchange-traded-funds-etf-ranking.html
TODAY’S RANKING OF THE DOW 30
STOCKS (Ranked Daily)
Here’s the revised DOW 30 and
its momentum analysis. The top ranked stock receives 100%. The rest are then
ranked based on their momentum relative to the leading stock.
For more details, see NTSM
Page at…
https://navigatethestockmarket.blogspot.com/p/a-system-for-trading-dow-30-stocks-my_8.html
THURSDAY MARKET INTERNALS
(NYSE DATA)
Market Internals remained NEUTRAL on the market.
Market Internals are a decent
trend-following analysis of current market action, but should not be used alone
for short term trading. They are usually right, but they are often late. They are most useful when they diverge from
the Index.
Using the Short-term indicator
in 2018 in SPY would have made a 5% gain instead of a 6% loss for buy-and-hold.
The methodology was Buy on a POSITIVE indication and Sell on a NEGATIVE
indication and stay out until the next POSITIVE indication. The back-test
included 13-buys and 13-sells, or a trade every 2-weeks on average.
As of 9 March, my stock-allocation
is about 60% invested in stocks. You may wish to have a higher or lower %
invested in stocks depending on your risk tolerance. 50% is a conservative
position that I consider fully invested for most retirees.
As a retiree, 50% in the stock
market is about fully invested for me – it is a cautious and conservative
number. If I feel very confident, I might go to 60%; if a correction is deep
enough, and I can call a bottom, 80% would not be out of the question.
The markets have not
retested the lows on recent corrections and that left me under-invested on the
bounces. I will need to put less reliance on retests in the future.
