(GLOBAL WARMING) LET’S WORK FOR SCIENCE WITH INTEGRITY
(Forbes)
“Contrary to popular belief, even the official assessment
reports – such as those by the UN’s Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change
and the US government’s National Climate Assessments — indicate that “significant
human-induced climate change would have negligible net economic impact on
either the world or the US economies by the end of this century”... Story
at...
My cmt: Who would guess that conclusion based on the
constant barrage of global warming scare tactics by the media?
NEW HOME SALES (Reuters)
“Sales of new U.S. single-family homes rose more than
expected in August, but there are signs that housing market momentum is slowing
as the tailwind from the COVID-19 pandemic fades. New home sales increased 1.5%
to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 740,000 units last month...” Story
at...
OIL ABOUT TO BREAKOUT FROM ITS LONGTERM DOWNTREND?
(Felder Report)
“There is a compelling case to be made for favoring value stocks
today. Among those, the energy sector remains the most
compelling by a long shot. In addition to being cheap, it’s
really the only sector within the broad market where insiders continue to
be very bullish (the
broad market, in contrast, continues to be sold by the
smartest of the smart money). So it would appear that insiders
believe oil prices are likely to breakout above critical resistance represented
by the upper trend line of its long-term downtrend channel.”
https://thefelderreport.com/2021/09/22/is-oil-about-to-breakout-of-its-long-term-downtrend/
My cmt: I am still holding the XLE-ETF. The dividend
remains nearly 4%.
RECORD NUMBER OF CARGO SHIPS STUCK OUTSIDE LA (msn.com)
“The bottleneck this week at America’s busiest port
complex [LA and Long Beach] is the result of a shortage of trucks and drivers
to pick up goods, coupled with an overwhelming demand for imported consumer
products. As of Wednesday, 62 container ships were waiting offshore to unload
cargo, according to the Marine Exchange of Southern California.” Story at...
A
record number of cargo ships are stuck outside LA. What’s happening? (msn.com)
“The trucking industry has about 80,000 fewer available drivers today compared to a year ago.”
From...
https://www.atbs.com/post/where-did-all-the-truck-drivers-go
The usual suspects: retirement eligible drivers left;
older drivers feared COVID and retired early; fearing Covid, many took
unemployment and stayed home.
CORONAVIRUS (NTSM)
Here’s the latest from the COVID19 Johns Hopkins website as
of 7:00 PM Friday. U.S. total case numbers are on the left axis; daily numbers
are on the right side of the graph in Red with the 10-dMA of daily numbers in
Green.
I added the smoothed 10-dMA of new cases (in purple) to
the chart.
MARKET REPORT / ANALYSIS
-Friday the S&P 500 rose about 0.2% to 4455.
-VIX dropped about 5% to 17.75.
-The yield on the 10-year Treasury rose to 1.454%.
Bull signs continue.
The Friday run-down of some important indicators turned bullish
(7-bear and 10
-bull). These indicators tend to be both long-term and
short-term, so they are different than the 20 that I report on daily. Details
follow:
BULL SIGNS
-The smoothed advancing volume on the NYSE is rising.
-There have been 6 Statistically-Significant days in the
last 15-days. This can be a bull or bear signal. Coming off the bottom – this
is bullish.
-The 10-dMA % of issues advancing on the NYSE
(Breadth) is above 50%.
-The 100-dMA % of issues advancing on the NYSE
(Breadth) is above 50%.
-MACD of the percentage of issues advancing on the NYSE
(breadth) made a bullish crossover 23 September.
-My Money Trend indicator.
-McClellan Oscillator.
-The Smart Money (late-day action) indicates the Pros are
bulish. (This indicator is based on the Smart Money Indicator developed by Don
Hayes).
-21 and 22 Sept were high up-volume days. Bullish
-The S&P 500 is out-performing the Utilities ETF (XLU).
NEUTRAL
-Distribution Days.
There have been 1 in the last 25-days, not enough to send a signal.
-The S&P 500 is 8.0% above its 200-dMA (Bear
indicator is 12%.). This value was 15.9% above the 200-dMA when the 10%
correction occurred in Sep 2020.
-Bollinger Bands
-RSI.
-Breadth on the NYSE compared to the S&P 500 index is
neutral.
-Calm-before-the-Storm Indicator – expired.
-There have been 9 up-days over the last 20 days. Neutral
-There have been 5 up-days over the last 10-days. Neutral
-There was a Follow-thru day on 15 Sept. This cancels any prior Distribution days, but
the signal has expired.
-The Fosback High-Low Logic Index is neutral.
-7.7% of all issues traded on the NYSE made new, 52-week
highs when the S&P 500 made a new all-time-high 2 September. (There is no
bullish signal for this indicator.) This is above the average for all-time
highs and suggests that if we do have a pullback, it is likely to be less than
10%.
-Overbought/Oversold Index (Advance/Decline Ratio) is
neutral.
-The size of up-moves has been larger than the size of
down-moves over the last month, but not enough to give a signal.
-Statistically, the S&P 500 gave a panic-signal 17
Sept. Signal has expired.
-Non-crash Sentiment indicator remains neutral, but it is
very bullish and that means the signal is leaning bearish.
-21 Sep, the 52-week, New-high/new-low ratio improved by 0.2
standard deviations, somewhat bullish, but neutral.
-VIX is falling, but not fast enough to send a signal.
This is one of my more reliable indicators.
-There were 5 Hindenburg Omen signals 16-23 Aug. The McClellan Oscillator turned positive
afterward, so the Omens have been cancelled.
-49% (and headed higher) of the 15-ETFs that I track have
been up over the last 10-days.
BEAR SIGNS
-The 50-dMA % of issues advancing on the NYSE (Breadth)
is below 50%, but just barely.
-MACD of S&P 500 price made a bearish crossover, 9
September.
-Long-term new-high/new-low data is down.
-Short-term new-high/new-low data is falling.
-Slope of the 40-dMA of New-highs is down. This is one of
my favorite trend indicators.
-Cyclical Industrials (XLI-ETF) are under-performing the
S&P 500.
-The 5-10-20 Timer System is SELL; the 5-dEMA and 10-dEMA
are both below the 20-dEMA. It’s improving, but still in the bear side.
On Friday, 21 February, 2 days after the top of the
Coronavirus pullback, there were 10 bear-signs and 1 bull-sign. Now there
are 7 bear-signs and 10 bull-signs. Last week, there were 14 bear-signs and
3 bull-signs.
This week’s reading has switched to the bull side. It’s
not a hugely bullish signal, but considering where it was last week and the
number of indicators headed higher (even though they are now bearish) I think
this is a good result for the bulls. I
bumped my stocks holdings to 55% of the portfolio.
Looks like new highs are ahead.
The daily sum of 20 Indicators improved from -3 to -1 (a
positive number is bullish; negatives are bearish); the 10-day smoothed sum
that smooths the daily fluctuations improved from -77 to -73 (These numbers
sometimes change after I post the blog based on data that comes in late.) Most
of these indicators are short-term and many are trend following.
The Long Term NTSM indicator ensemble
remained HOLD. Volume, VIX, Price & Sentiment indicators are neutral.
I’m bullish. Today’s results
were further confirmation that the “bottom” was Tuesday. Now we’ll need to see
what the market looks like when it makes a new-high.
MOMENTUM ANALYSIS:
TODAY’S RANKING OF 15 ETFs
(Ranked Daily)
The top ranked ETF receives
100%. The rest are then ranked based on their momentum relative to the leading
ETF.
*For additional background on
the ETF ranking system see NTSM Page at…
http://navigatethestockmarket.blogspot.com/p/exchange-traded-funds-etf-ranking.html
TODAY’S RANKING OF THE DOW 30
STOCKS (Ranked Daily)
Here’s the revised DOW 30 and
its momentum analysis. The top ranked stock receives 100%. The rest are then
ranked based on their momentum relative to the leading stock.
For more details, see NTSM
Page at…
https://navigatethestockmarket.blogspot.com/p/a-system-for-trading-dow-30-stocks-my_8.html
FRIDAY MARKET INTERNALS (NYSE
DATA)
Market Internals remained NEUTRAL on the market.
Market Internals are a decent trend-following
analysis of current market action, but should not be used alone for short term
trading. They are usually right, but they are often late. They are most useful when they diverge from
the Index.
My stock-allocation in the
portfolio is now about 55% invested in stocks; this is slightly above my
“normal” fully invested allocation of 50%.
You may wish to have a higher
or lower % invested in stocks depending on your risk tolerance. 50% is a
conservative position that I consider fully invested for most retirees.
As a general rule, some
suggest that the % of portfolio invested in the stock market should be one’s
age subtracted from 100. So, a
30-year-old person would have 70% of the portfolio in stocks, stock mutual
funds and/or stock ETFs. That’s ok, but
for older investors, I usually don’t recommend keeping less than 50% invested
in stocks (as a fully invested position) since most people need some growth in
the portfolio to keep up with inflation.
