“Trade what you see; not what you think.” – The Old Fool, Richard McCranie, trader extraordinaire.
“The core personal consumption expenditures price index increased 0.5% from the previous month and accelerated 5.1% over the past 12 months... Including food and energy, PCE inflation rose 0.3% for the month and 6.2% on a yearly basis, the same as in August...
...personal income increased 0.4% in September, one-tenth of a percentage point above the estimate. Spending as gauged through personal consumption expenditures increased 0.6%, more than the 0.4% estimate...
...employment costs rose 1.2% for the third quarter, in line with estimates, according to the Bureau of Labor Statistics. On an annual basis, the employment cost index increased 5%, slightly lower than the 5.1% pace in the second quarter.” Story at...
https://www.cnbc.com/2022/10/28/pce-inflation-september-2022-.html
https://coronavirus.jhu.edu/map.html
-Friday the S&P 500 rose about 2.5% to 3901.
-VIX dropped about 6% to 25.75.
-The yield on the 10-year Treasury rose to 4.016%.
-Drop from Top: 18.7% as of today. 25.4% max (on a closing basis).
-Trading Days since Top: 207-days.
The S&P 500 is 5.2% Below its 200-dMA & 1.5% ABOVE its 50-dMA.
*I won’t call the correction over until the S&P 500 makes a new-high; however, evidence suggests the bottom was / is in the 3600 area and I am fully invested with a higher percentage of stocks than normal.
XLI – Industrial ETF
QLD – 2x Nas 100
DDM – 2x Dow 30
XLK – Technology ETF
When the S&P 500 failed to make it above its 50-dMA a few days ago, I suggested it didn’t mean much and I thought the rally would continue. Today, that was proved true as the Index broke 1.5% above its 50-dMA. That will be a bullish sign assuming, the index stays above the 50-day on successive days; I expect it will. The Index closed slightly below its 100-dMA; I expect it to break above that level, too.
-The 10-dMA percentage of issues advancing on the NYSE (Breadth) is above 50%.
-MACD of S&P 500 price made a bullish crossover 13 Oct.
-The 52-week, New-high/new-low ratio improved by 3.5 standard deviations. More simply, the spread between new-highs and new-lows improved by 716 on 14 October. That’s another solid bottom sign at a retest.
-Issues advancing on the NYSE (Breadth) compared to the S&P 500 are bullish. (Breadth is ahead of the Index.)
-The longer-term, 50-dEMA, Fosback Hi-Low Logic Index is Bullish.
-On average, the size of up-moves has been larger than the size of down-moves over the last month.
-21 Oct was a Bullish Outside Reversal Day.
-Cyclical Industrials (XLI-ETF) are outpacing the S&P 500.
-17 and 18 Oct were back-to-back 80%+ up-volume days.
-S&P 500 is outperforming the Utilities (XLU).
-The smoothed advancing volume on the NYSE is rising.
-Smoothed Buying Pressure minus Selling Pressure is rising. (While it’s falling, there is a strong bullish divergence when today’s values are compared to the June lows.)
-McClellan Oscillator.
-The Smart Money (late-day action) suggests Pros are buying.
-There was a Follow-Thru Day 21 October that cancels prior Distribution Days.
-My Money Trend indicator turned up.
-Short-term new-high/new-low data.
-Long-term new-high/new-low data.
-Sentiment.
- 72% of the 15-ETFs that I track have been up over the last 10-days.
-Slope of the 40-dMA of New-highs is rising.
-The 5-10-20 Timer System is BUY; the 5-dEMA and 10-dEMA are both above the 20-dEMA. (The 5-day is above the 10-day so short-term momentum is bullish too.)
-MACD of the percentage of issues advancing on the NYSE (breadth) made a bullish crossover 26 Oct.
-There have been 9 up-days over the last 20 sessions.
-There have been 6 up-days over the last 10 sessions – neutral.
-There have been 4 Statistically-Significant days (big moves in price-volume) in the last 15-days.
-The S&P 500 is 5.2% below its 200-dMA. (Bull indicator is 12% below the 200-day, although this is based on “normal” pullbacks.)
-Bollinger Bands.
-RSI
-The short-term, 10-day, Fosback Hi-Low Logic Index.
-The Calm-before-the-Storm/Panic Indicator warned on 13 September - expired.
-There was an Inverse Zweig Breadth Collapse (negative Breadth Thrust) 21 June. That’s a rare, very-bearish sign, but it was several-weeks ago - expired.
-There was a Hindenburg Omen signal 8 April – expired.
-2.8% of all issues traded on the NYSE made new, 52-week highs when the S&P 500 made a new all-time-high, 3 January. (There is no bullish signal for this indicator.) This indicated that the advance was too narrow and a correction was likely to be >10%. – It proved correct, but is now Expired
-VIX indicator.
-The graph of the 100-day Count (the 100-day sum of up-days) is flat.
-Overbought/Oversold Index (Advance/Decline Ratio).
-The 50-dMA percentage of issues advancing on the NYSE (Breadth) is below 50.
-The 100-dMA percentage of issues advancing on the NYSE (Breadth) is below 50%
-The 50-dMA percentage of issues advancing on the NYSE (Breadth) has been below 50%, for 3 days in a row below 50% for my “correction-now” signal. – It hardly matters now.
TODAY’S RANKING OF 15 ETFs (Ranked Daily)
ETF ranking follows:
The top ranked ETF receives 100%. The rest are then ranked based on their momentum relative to the leading ETF.
#1. XLE #2. ITA #2. IBB
http://navigatethestockmarket.blogspot.com/p/exchange-traded-funds-etf-ranking.html
DOW 30 momentum ranking follows:
#1.CVX #2.CAT #3. AMGN
The top ranked Stock receives 100%. The rest are then ranked based on their momentum relative to the leading Stock.
For more details, see NTSM Page at…
https://navigatethestockmarket.blogspot.com/p/a-system-for-trading-dow-30-stocks-my_8.html
(Market Internals are a decent trend-following analysis of current market action, but should not be used alone for short term trading. They are most useful when they diverge from the Index.)
