“Trade what you see; not what you think.” – The Old Fool,
Richard McCranie, trader extraordinaire.
[Marjorie Taylor Greene, Republican Rep.,14th District of Georgia,
is] “Tonya Harding in a fur coat.” - Matthew Dowd, former chief
strategist for the George W. Bush’s 2004 presidential campaign
UNIV OF MICHIGAN SENTIMENT (Univ of Michigan)
“Consumer sentiment was essentially unchanged at 1.5 index points above January. Recent developments in the economy, both positive and negative, have led to mixed attitudes among consumers with little net change in February. After three consecutive months of increases, sentiment is now 6% above a year ago but still 14% below two years ago, prior to the current inflationary episode.” Press release at...
http://www.sca.isr.umich.edu/
DON’T WORRY ABOUT THE YIELD CURVE INVERSION (YahooFinance)
“The classic bond-market barometer of economic health - the yield curve - is still blaring a recession signal, but it may no longer be a reliable metric, according to Goldman Sachs. The widely followed indicator is near its most inverted level - meaning it's deviating from what's considered normal - in over 40 years, and such anomalies are typically taken by economists as a sign that a severe economic downturn is on the way. But this time round, that doesn't seem to hold true, Goldman strategists Praveen Korapaty and William Marshall said in a research note published Wednesday. Instead, the curve inversion may have been caused by low inflation-adjusted interest rates, they wrote.” Story at...
https://www.yahoo.com/lifestyle/bond-markets-classic-recession-indicator-163349183.html
COVID EMREGENCY MAY END (CNBC)
“Health Secretary Xavier Becerra officially informed the state governors on Thursday that he is renewing the Covid public health emergency a final time but will let it expire on May 11”. Story at...
https://www.cnbc.com/2023/02/09/the-covid-emergency-in-the-us-ends-may-11-hhs-officials-say-heres-what-to-expect.html
Really? I know more than a half dozen people who have had Covid recently; symptoms were light. I am surprised it’s still an emergency.
-Friday the S&P 500 rose about 0.2% to 4090.
-VIX slipped about 1% to 20.53.
-The yield on the 10-year Treasury rose to 3.738%.
PULLBACK DATA:
-Drop from Top: 14.7% as of today. 25.4% max (on a closing basis).
-Trading Days since Top: 278-days.
The S&P 500 is 3.7% ABOVE its 200-dMA & 3.1% ABOVE its 50-dMA.
*I won’t call the correction over until the S&P 500 makes a new-high; however, evidence suggests the bottom was in the 3600 area.
MY TRADING POSITIONS:
QLD – (2xNas 100) The XLK bottomed 12 October, about the same time as when the S&P 500 retested its low. QLD seems like a decent bet even though the CNBC crowd doesn’t like Tech.
XLK – Technology ETF.
SSO – 2x S&P 500.
XLE – Energy Sector ETF. Low PE; good Dividend; decent momentum, although momentum has been slipping recently.
BA – (Boeing) I am late on this one, but we’ll see.
XLY - Consumer Discretionary ETF. (I considered selling XLY. But it has been a good performer recently, so I’ll continue to watch it.)
SHY – Short term bonds. 30-day yield is 4.2%. (Trailing 1-year yield is 1.3%.) I’ll hold this, but if the market retests the lows, I’ll sell it and buy stocks.)
TODAY’S COMMENT:
The Fosback Hi-Low Logic Indexes (long-term and short-term) are still giving solidly bullish indications. These are powerful indicators that are based on the 52-week number of new-highs and new-lows. When new-highs and new-lows are both low for a period of time, it is a strong bullish sign. So far, this small retreat has not affected the bullish view of these indicators. If anything, they are more bullish now.
At the low today, the S&P 500 was about 2% above the
50-dMA. I thought we’d see a small decline to the vicinity of the 50-dMA. Not
sure if that will be enough. We may see some more weakness next week.
On Fridays, I summarize a number of indicators to get a
weekly feel for trend. The Friday rundown of indicators was even more less bullish
than last week (now 10-bear and 12-bull) and nearly neutral. (These indicators tend to be both
long-term and short-term, so they are different than the 20 that I report on
daily.)
[I need to fire my proof reader!]
BULL SIGNS
-The 50-dMA percentage of issues advancing on the NYSE (Breadth) is above 50%.
-The 100-dMA percentage of issues advancing on the NYSE (Breadth) is above 50%.
-There was a Zweig Breadth Thrust 12 January. That’s a rare, very-bullish sign.
-Smoothed Buying Pressure minus Selling Pressure is rising.
-Long-term new-high/new-low data.
-The short-term, 10-dayEMA, Fosback Hi-Low Logic Index is bullish.
-The long-term, 50-dEMA, Fosback Hi-Low Logic Index is bullish.
-90% up-volume days - the last one was 31 Jan. and before that, 30 November. That’s pretty far apart, but I’ll still put this in the bullish column.
-The 5-day EMA is above the 10-day EMA so short-term momentum is bullish.
-The 5-10-20 Timer System is BUY; the 5-dEMA and 10-dEMA are both above the 20-dEMA.
-On average, the size of up-moves has been larger than the size of down-moves over the last month.
-S&P 500 is outperforming Utilities (XLU-ETF).
NEUTRAL
-There was a Distribution Day 9 Feb, however, it’s only 1 since the last Follow-thru day.
-There have only been 2 Statistically-Significant days (big moves in price-volume) in the last 15-days.
-Sentiment.
-Bollinger Bands.
-Overbought/Oversold Index (Advance/Decline Ratio).
-Issues advancing on the NYSE (Breadth) compared to the S&P 500.
-There have been 5 up-days over the last 10 sessions – neutral.
-There have been 10 up-days over the last 20 sessions - neutral.
-RSI
-The 50-dMA percentage of issues advancing on the NYSE (Breadth) has been above 50%, for 3 days in a row ending the “correction-now” signal.
-The Calm-before-the-Storm/Panic Indicator flashed a panic-buying signal 10 November - expired.
-VIX indicator.
-The S&P 500 is 3.7% above its 200-dMA. (Bull indicator is 12% below the 200-day, although this is based on “normal” pullbacks.)
-There was a Hindenburg Omen signal 8 April – expired.
-2.8% of all issues traded on the NYSE made new, 52-week highs when the S&P 500 made a new all-time-high, 3 January 2022. (There is no bullish signal for this indicator.) This indicated that the advance was too narrow and a correction was likely to be >10%. It proved correct, but is now Expired
-The 52-week, New-high/new-low ratio improved by 3.5 standard deviations. More simply, the spread between new-highs and new-lows improved by 716 on 14 October. That’s a solid bottom sign at a retest. – Expired.
-13 & 21 Oct were Bullish Outside Reversal Days with no Bearish Outside Reversal days since then - expired.
-The Smart Money (late-day action) is neutral.
-XLI-ETF (Cyclical Industrials) is outperforming the S&P 500. The Long-term value is turning down sharply, but the short-term value is now headed up. Let’s call it Neutral.
BEAR SIGNS
-The 10-dMA percentage of issues advancing on the NYSE (Breadth) is below 50%.
-The smoothed advancing volume on the NYSE is falling.
-MACD of the percentage of issues advancing on the NYSE (breadth) made a bearish crossover 6 Feb.
-MACD of S&P 500 price made a bearish crossover 10 Feb.
-My Money Trend indicator is falling.
-Short-term new-high/new-low data.
-Slope of the 40-dMA of New-highs is falling.
-McClellan Oscillator.
-The graph of the 100-day Count (the 100-day sum of up-days) is falling.
-43% of the 15-ETFs that I track have been up over the last 10-days.
On Friday, 21 February, 2 days after the top before the
Coronavirus pullback, there were 10 bear-signs and 1 bull-sign. Now there
are 10 bear-signs and 12-Bull. Last week, there were 2 bear-sign and 23
bull-signs.
The Friday rundown has shifted to a near neutral, slightly
bullish indication.
Today, the daily spread of 20 Indicators (Bulls minus
Bears) declined from +2 to -1 (a positive number is bullish; negatives are
bearish); the 10-day smoothed sum that smooths the daily fluctuations slipped
from +75 to 68. (The trend direction is more important than the actual number
for the 10-day value.) These numbers sometimes change after I post the blog
based on data that comes in late. Most of these 20 indicators are short-term so
they tend to bounce around a lot.
LONG-TERM INDICATOR: The Long Term NTSM indicator slipped
to HOLD: PRICE is positive. VOLUME, VIX & SENTIMENT are neutral.
(The important BUY in this indicator was on 21 October, 7-days after the bottom. For my NTSM overall signal, I suggested that a short-term buying opportunity occurred on 27 September (based on improved market internals on the retest), although without market follow-thru, I was unwilling to call a buy; however, I did close shorts and increased stock holdings. I issued a Buy-Signal on 4 October, 6-days before the final bottom, based on stronger market action that confirmed the market internals signal.)
Bottom line: I’m a BULL.
BEST ETFs - MOMENTUM ANALYSIS:
TODAY’S RANKING OF 15 ETFs (Ranked Daily)
ETF ranking follows:
The top ranked ETF receives 100%. The rest are then ranked based on their momentum relative to the leading ETF.
*For additional background on the ETF ranking system see NTSM Page at…
http://navigatethestockmarket.blogspot.com/p/exchange-traded-funds-etf-ranking.html
BEST DOW STOCKS - TODAY’S MOMENTUM
RANKING OF THE DOW 30 STOCKS (Ranked Daily)
DOW 30 momentum ranking follows:
The top ranked Stock receives 100%. The rest are then ranked based on their momentum relative to the leading Stock.
For more details, see NTSM Page at…
https://navigatethestockmarket.blogspot.com/p/a-system-for-trading-dow-30-stocks-my_8.html
FRIDAY MARKET INTERNALS (NYSE
DATA)
My basket of Market Internals remained short-term SELL. (Market Internals are a decent trend-following analysis of current market action, but should not be used alone for short term trading. They are most useful when they diverge from the Index.)
...My current invested
position is about 75% stocks, including stock mutual funds and ETFs. I’m
usually about 50% invested in stocks.
I trade about 15-20% of the
total portfolio using the momentum-based analysis I provide here. If I can see
a definitive bottom, I’ll add a lot more stocks to the portfolio using an
S&P 500 ETF.
“Consumer sentiment was essentially unchanged at 1.5 index points above January. Recent developments in the economy, both positive and negative, have led to mixed attitudes among consumers with little net change in February. After three consecutive months of increases, sentiment is now 6% above a year ago but still 14% below two years ago, prior to the current inflationary episode.” Press release at...
http://www.sca.isr.umich.edu/
“The classic bond-market barometer of economic health - the yield curve - is still blaring a recession signal, but it may no longer be a reliable metric, according to Goldman Sachs. The widely followed indicator is near its most inverted level - meaning it's deviating from what's considered normal - in over 40 years, and such anomalies are typically taken by economists as a sign that a severe economic downturn is on the way. But this time round, that doesn't seem to hold true, Goldman strategists Praveen Korapaty and William Marshall said in a research note published Wednesday. Instead, the curve inversion may have been caused by low inflation-adjusted interest rates, they wrote.” Story at...
https://www.yahoo.com/lifestyle/bond-markets-classic-recession-indicator-163349183.html
“Health Secretary Xavier Becerra officially informed the state governors on Thursday that he is renewing the Covid public health emergency a final time but will let it expire on May 11”. Story at...
https://www.cnbc.com/2023/02/09/the-covid-emergency-in-the-us-ends-may-11-hhs-officials-say-heres-what-to-expect.html
Really? I know more than a half dozen people who have had Covid recently; symptoms were light. I am surprised it’s still an emergency.
-Friday the S&P 500 rose about 0.2% to 4090.
-VIX slipped about 1% to 20.53.
-The yield on the 10-year Treasury rose to 3.738%.
-Drop from Top: 14.7% as of today. 25.4% max (on a closing basis).
-Trading Days since Top: 278-days.
The S&P 500 is 3.7% ABOVE its 200-dMA & 3.1% ABOVE its 50-dMA.
*I won’t call the correction over until the S&P 500 makes a new-high; however, evidence suggests the bottom was in the 3600 area.
QLD – (2xNas 100) The XLK bottomed 12 October, about the same time as when the S&P 500 retested its low. QLD seems like a decent bet even though the CNBC crowd doesn’t like Tech.
XLK – Technology ETF.
SSO – 2x S&P 500.
XLE – Energy Sector ETF. Low PE; good Dividend; decent momentum, although momentum has been slipping recently.
BA – (Boeing) I am late on this one, but we’ll see.
XLY - Consumer Discretionary ETF. (I considered selling XLY. But it has been a good performer recently, so I’ll continue to watch it.)
SHY – Short term bonds. 30-day yield is 4.2%. (Trailing 1-year yield is 1.3%.) I’ll hold this, but if the market retests the lows, I’ll sell it and buy stocks.)
The Fosback Hi-Low Logic Indexes (long-term and short-term) are still giving solidly bullish indications. These are powerful indicators that are based on the 52-week number of new-highs and new-lows. When new-highs and new-lows are both low for a period of time, it is a strong bullish sign. So far, this small retreat has not affected the bullish view of these indicators. If anything, they are more bullish now.
-The 50-dMA percentage of issues advancing on the NYSE (Breadth) is above 50%.
-The 100-dMA percentage of issues advancing on the NYSE (Breadth) is above 50%.
-There was a Zweig Breadth Thrust 12 January. That’s a rare, very-bullish sign.
-Smoothed Buying Pressure minus Selling Pressure is rising.
-Long-term new-high/new-low data.
-The short-term, 10-dayEMA, Fosback Hi-Low Logic Index is bullish.
-The long-term, 50-dEMA, Fosback Hi-Low Logic Index is bullish.
-90% up-volume days - the last one was 31 Jan. and before that, 30 November. That’s pretty far apart, but I’ll still put this in the bullish column.
-The 5-day EMA is above the 10-day EMA so short-term momentum is bullish.
-The 5-10-20 Timer System is BUY; the 5-dEMA and 10-dEMA are both above the 20-dEMA.
-On average, the size of up-moves has been larger than the size of down-moves over the last month.
-S&P 500 is outperforming Utilities (XLU-ETF).
-There was a Distribution Day 9 Feb, however, it’s only 1 since the last Follow-thru day.
-There have only been 2 Statistically-Significant days (big moves in price-volume) in the last 15-days.
-Sentiment.
-Bollinger Bands.
-Overbought/Oversold Index (Advance/Decline Ratio).
-Issues advancing on the NYSE (Breadth) compared to the S&P 500.
-There have been 5 up-days over the last 10 sessions – neutral.
-There have been 10 up-days over the last 20 sessions - neutral.
-RSI
-The 50-dMA percentage of issues advancing on the NYSE (Breadth) has been above 50%, for 3 days in a row ending the “correction-now” signal.
-The Calm-before-the-Storm/Panic Indicator flashed a panic-buying signal 10 November - expired.
-VIX indicator.
-The S&P 500 is 3.7% above its 200-dMA. (Bull indicator is 12% below the 200-day, although this is based on “normal” pullbacks.)
-There was a Hindenburg Omen signal 8 April – expired.
-2.8% of all issues traded on the NYSE made new, 52-week highs when the S&P 500 made a new all-time-high, 3 January 2022. (There is no bullish signal for this indicator.) This indicated that the advance was too narrow and a correction was likely to be >10%. It proved correct, but is now Expired
-The 52-week, New-high/new-low ratio improved by 3.5 standard deviations. More simply, the spread between new-highs and new-lows improved by 716 on 14 October. That’s a solid bottom sign at a retest. – Expired.
-13 & 21 Oct were Bullish Outside Reversal Days with no Bearish Outside Reversal days since then - expired.
-The Smart Money (late-day action) is neutral.
-XLI-ETF (Cyclical Industrials) is outperforming the S&P 500. The Long-term value is turning down sharply, but the short-term value is now headed up. Let’s call it Neutral.
-The 10-dMA percentage of issues advancing on the NYSE (Breadth) is below 50%.
-The smoothed advancing volume on the NYSE is falling.
-MACD of the percentage of issues advancing on the NYSE (breadth) made a bearish crossover 6 Feb.
-MACD of S&P 500 price made a bearish crossover 10 Feb.
-My Money Trend indicator is falling.
-Short-term new-high/new-low data.
-Slope of the 40-dMA of New-highs is falling.
-McClellan Oscillator.
-The graph of the 100-day Count (the 100-day sum of up-days) is falling.
-43% of the 15-ETFs that I track have been up over the last 10-days.
(The important BUY in this indicator was on 21 October, 7-days after the bottom. For my NTSM overall signal, I suggested that a short-term buying opportunity occurred on 27 September (based on improved market internals on the retest), although without market follow-thru, I was unwilling to call a buy; however, I did close shorts and increased stock holdings. I issued a Buy-Signal on 4 October, 6-days before the final bottom, based on stronger market action that confirmed the market internals signal.)
BEST ETFs - MOMENTUM ANALYSIS:
TODAY’S RANKING OF 15 ETFs (Ranked Daily)
ETF ranking follows:
The top ranked ETF receives 100%. The rest are then ranked based on their momentum relative to the leading ETF.
*For additional background on the ETF ranking system see NTSM Page at…
http://navigatethestockmarket.blogspot.com/p/exchange-traded-funds-etf-ranking.html
DOW 30 momentum ranking follows:
The top ranked Stock receives 100%. The rest are then ranked based on their momentum relative to the leading Stock.
For more details, see NTSM Page at…
https://navigatethestockmarket.blogspot.com/p/a-system-for-trading-dow-30-stocks-my_8.html
My basket of Market Internals remained short-term SELL. (Market Internals are a decent trend-following analysis of current market action, but should not be used alone for short term trading. They are most useful when they diverge from the Index.)
