Momentum Trading DOW Stocks & ETFs … Stock Market Analysis ...
“Trade what you see; not what you think.” – The Old Fool,
Richard McCranie, trader extraordinaire.
“Below is [a link to] my column in the New York Post on
the expansion of the 14th Amendment theory to attempt to remove Republican
candidates for Congress from the ballots. Dozens of Democratic members have
already called for the disqualification of up to 126 Republican colleagues
under the same sweeping theory. These efforts show how this theory could place
this country on a slippery slope to political chaos if not clearly and finally
rejected by the Supreme Court.” - Jonathan Turley, attorney, and professor at George
Washington University Law School. Jonathan Turley, New York Post column at...
https://jonathanturley.org/2024/01/05/ballot-cleansing-democrats-are-moving-to-bar-republicans-from-ballots-nationwide/#more-213777
my cmt: The test for disqualification isn’t whether they
“questioned’ the outcome of an election. Those who were part of an insurrection
to overturn the 2020 Presidential election (primarily those who participated in
a conspiracy to forward phony electoral college slates) should be disqualified
from holding office. If that includes current members of Congress, so be
it.
“Attorneys for the former president want the case dismissed [in Georgia] on grounds that he
has “presidential immunity” from actions while in office, that he
was already acquitted for similar allegations in his second
impeachment trial, and that he was never told that what he was doing in the
state – where he is charged as part of an alleged racketeering scheme to
unlawfully subvert the state’s election results – could be prosecuted.” – From the
Independent at...
Trump
claims he didn’t have ‘fair notice’ that Georgia actions could be illegal
(msn.com)
My cmt: “He was never told...” Now his defense is
stupidity?!? I am sorry if you are tired of me ragging on Trump. I continue to
be surprised that he has any supporters. They aren’t Deplorables though – they are
the Gullibles.
MARKET REPORT / ANALYSIS
-Monday the S&P 500 rose about 1.4% to 4764.
-VIX dipped about 2% to 13.08.
-The yield on the 10-year Treasury slipped to 4.027%.
PULLBACK DATA:
-Drop from Top: 0.7%. 25.4% max (on a closing basis).
-Trading Days since All-Time Top: 505-days. (The top was
3 January 2022.)
The S&P 500 is 8.9% ABOVE its 200-dMA and 4.7% ABOVE
its 50-dMA.
*I won’t call the correction over until the S&P 500
makes a new all-time-high; however, the major bear-market bottom of the 25%
decline was in the 3600 area and we called a buy on 4 October 2022.
MY TRADING POSITIONS:
XLK – Technology ETF (holding since the October 2022
lows).
XLY - Consumer Discretionary ETF. (Holding since the
October 2022 lows - I bought more XLY 8/21/23.)
INTC – Added 12/6/2023.
BA – Added 12/6/2023.
DWCPF - Dow Jones U.S. Completion Total Stock Market
Index. – Added 12/7/2023. This is a large position in my retirement account
betting on Small Caps.
TODAY’S COMMENT:
That’s a nice bullish chart – up all day into the close.
The summary of indicators on Friday were 10-bear and 10-bull
for a spread of zero The spread remained zero today, so I can’t say the mild
pullback we have been observing is over. I would have preferred to see the
Index pull back to its lower trendline.
That didn’t happen, but that isn’t necessarily a bearish sign. Technology was the big winner today, up
around 2.5%. Intel was up over 3% so it sure looked like we had the pullback that
never was.
Monday was a statistically significant up-day. That just means
that the price-volume move exceeded my statistical parameters. Statistics show
that a statistically-significant, up-day is followed by a down-day about 60% of
the time so we may still see market weakness.
The daily spread of 20 Indicators (Bulls minus Bears) improved
from -3 to zero (a positive number is bullish; negatives are bearish); the
10-day smoothed sum that smooths the daily fluctuations declined from +31
to +20. (The trend direction is more important than the actual number for the
10-day value.) These numbers sometimes change after I post the blog based on
data that comes in late. Most of these 20 indicators are short-term so they
tend to bounce around a lot.
LONG-TERM INDICATOR: The Long Term NTSM indicator
remained HOLD: PRICE, VIX, VOLUME & SENTIMENT are neutral.
(One warning: The Long-Term Indicator is not a good
top-indicator. It can signal BUY at a top.)
(The important major BUY in this indicator was on 21
October 2022, 7-days after the bear-market bottom. For my NTSM overall signal,
I suggested that a short-term buying opportunity occurred on 27 September
(based on improved market internals on the retest), although without market
follow-thru, I was unwilling to call a buy; however, I did close shorts and
increased stock holdings. I issued a Buy-Signal on 4 October, 6-days before the
final bottom, based on stronger market action that confirmed the market internals
signal. The NTSM sell-signal was issued 21 December, 9 sessions before the high
of this recent bear market, based on the bearish “Friday Rundown” of
indicators.)
BOTTOM LINE
I remain bullish. We still seem to be in a short-term
pullback to the lower trend line, but signals are mixed today. A decline of about
3% more would be perfectly normal.
ETF - MOMENTUM ANALYSIS:
TODAY’S RANKING OF 15 ETFs (Ranked Daily)
ETF ranking follows:
The top ranked ETF receives
100%. The rest are then ranked based on their momentum relative to the leading
ETF.
*For additional background on
the ETF ranking system see NTSM Page at…
http://navigatethestockmarket.blogspot.com/p/exchange-traded-funds-etf-ranking.html
DOW STOCKS - TODAY’S MOMENTUM RANKING
OF THE DOW 30 STOCKS (Ranked Daily)
DOW 30 momentum ranking
follows:
The top ranked Stock receives
100%. The rest are then ranked based on their momentum relative to the leading Stock.
For more details, see NTSM
Page at…
https://navigatethestockmarket.blogspot.com/p/a-system-for-trading-dow-30-stocks-my_8.html
MONDAY MARKET INTERNALS (NYSE
DATA)
My basket of Market Internals remained HOLD. (My basket of Market
Internals is a decent trend-following analysis of current market action, but
should not be used alone for short term trading. They are most useful when they
diverge from the Index.)
...My current invested
position is about 65% stocks, including stock mutual funds and ETFs. I’m
usually about 50% invested in stocks. I’m “over invested” now expecting new,
all-time highs this year. That burns all the cash. I have about 25% of the portfolio in bonds.
I trade about 15-20% of the total portfolio using the
momentum-based analysis I provide here. When I see a definitive bottom, I add a
lot more stocks to the portfolio using an S&P 500 ETF as I did back in
October.
