Momentum Trading DOW Stocks & ETFs … Stock Market Analysis ...
“Trade what you see; not what you think.” – The Old Fool,
Richard McCranie, trader extraordinaire.
-The US has been attacked 150 times since the October 7
Hamas/Palestine attack on Israel. – Fox News.
“Mitch McConnell created a Beltway stir Thursday
when the press reported that the Senate GOP leader had cast doubt on a deal for
border security and aid to Ukraine and Israel... The Kentucky Republican was
noting the reality that the deal faces political headwinds, and he is right to
warn his colleagues that their window for a rare accomplishment is
waning. Donald Trump is
trying to torpedo any agreement, which could cause a GOP stampede away from a
deal.” – Editorial Board, WSJ. From...
https://www.wsj.com/articles/republicans-border-deal-mitch-mcconnell-mike-johnson-congress-president-biden-726b18e6
"Donald Trump has
decided the way to unite the GOP, after his 54% to 43% victory in New
Hampshire, is to purge Republicans who are still skeptical of him. Retribution
is at the top of his mind, as he said when launching his campaign... If Mr.
Trump and other MAGA figures spend the coming months trying to purify the GOP
of everyone who won’t kiss his ring, it will be a high act of self-sabotage. It
will also be a good reason to vote for someone else.” – Editorial Board, WSJ.
From...
https://www.wsj.com/articles/donald-trump-nikki-haley-republican-party-kari-lake-jeff-dewit-eb11df47
“There is much to agree with in your [WSJ] editorial “The 2024 Republican Choice” (Jan. 22), but it dismisses the
“dictatorship” risk, arguing that it “undersells the resilience of American
institutions, which have held up so far against the stress test of Mr. Trump.”
It wasn’t institutions, however, that spared us a constitutional catastrophe in
late 2020 and early 2021. It was people—Mike Pence, Bill
Barr, Pat Cipollone, Mark Milley and a long list of others who
put their oath above their boss’s demands.
Former President Donald Trump has made
clear that he intends to populate a second administration with sycophants. It
is easy to imagine those same institutions crumbling this time around. - Bill Goss, WSJ Letters to the Editor.
From...
https://www.wsj.com/articles/trump-jan-6-democracy-second-term-5aaf2ef0
MARKET REPORT / ANALYSIS
-Monday the S&P 500 rose about 0.8% to 4928.
-VIX rose about 3% to 13. 60. (VIX is a measure of future
volatility, up or down. It usually moves in the opposite direction from the
S&P 500, but not always.)
-The yield on the 10-year Treasury declined to 4.076.
MY TRADING POSITIONS:
UWM – Added 1/22/2024
XLK – Technology ETF (holding since the October 2022
lows).
INTC – Added 12/6/2023.
Intel beat on income and revenue, but guidance was poor
for the coming quarter.
“For the first quarter of fiscal 2024, Intel expects
earnings per share of 13 cents on between $12.2 billion and $13.2 billion in
sales, versus LSEG expectations of 33 cents per share on $14.15 billion of
revenue.” From...
https://www.cnbc.com/2024/01/25/intel-intc-earnings-report-q4-2023.html
CRM – Added 1/22/2024
BA – Added 12/6/2023. I plan to hold Boeing for the time
being. Could it get any worse for them? Yes, it could – more loose bolts found
Tuesday.
DWCPF - Dow Jones U.S. Completion Total Stock Market
Index. – Added 12/7/2023 when I sold the S&P 500. This is a large position
in my retirement account betting on Small Caps.
TODAY’S COMMENT:
My trading holdings were all over the place today: Boeing
was down a little; Intel was up about 0.4%; but Salesforce was the big winner,
up nearly 3%. (I’m not sure if I will continue to hold Boeing and Intel.)
The S&P 500 made another new all-time high Tuesday
and 5.6% of issues on the NYSE made new, 52-week highs. That’s an OK number. I calculated
a 5-year average a while back and it was 6.7% so today’s number is still below
average. I’ll continue to watch this stat since it can be an early warning for
the markets.
The daily spread of 20 Indicators (Bulls minus Bears) improved
from +4 to +9 (a positive number is bullish; negatives are bearish); the 10-day
smoothed sum that smooths the daily fluctuations improved from -28 to -11.
(The trend direction is more important than the actual number for the 10-day
value.) These numbers sometimes change after I post the blog based on data that
comes in late. Most of these 20 indicators are short-term so they tend to
bounce around a lot.
LONG-TERM INDICATOR: The Long Term NTSM indicator improved
to BUY: SENTIMENT, VOLUME & PRICE are bullish; VIX is neutral.
(One warning: The Long-Term Indicator is not a good
top-indicator. It can signal BUY at a top.)
(The important major BUY in this indicator was on 21
October 2022, 7-days after the bear-market bottom. For my NTSM overall signal,
I suggested that a short-term buying opportunity occurred on 27 September
(based on improved market internals on the retest), although without market
follow-thru, I was unwilling to call a buy; however, I did close shorts and
increased stock holdings. I issued a Buy-Signal on 4 October, 6-days before the
final bottom, based on stronger market action that confirmed the market internals
signal. The NTSM sell-signal was issued 21 December, 9 sessions before the high
of this recent bear market, based on the bearish “Friday Rundown” of
indicators.)
BOTTOM LINE
I remain bullish. Markets don’t look too stretched; I
think they can go higher.
ETF - MOMENTUM ANALYSIS:
TODAY’S RANKING OF 15 ETFs (Ranked Daily)
ETF ranking follows:
The top ranked ETF receives
100%. The rest are then ranked based on their momentum relative to the leading
ETF.
*For additional background on
the ETF ranking system see NTSM Page at…
http://navigatethestockmarket.blogspot.com/p/exchange-traded-funds-etf-ranking.html
DOW STOCKS - TODAY’S MOMENTUM RANKING
OF THE DOW 30 STOCKS (Ranked Daily)
DOW 30 momentum ranking
follows:
The top ranked Stock receives
100%. The rest are then ranked based on their momentum relative to the leading Stock.
For more details, see NTSM
Page at…
https://navigatethestockmarket.blogspot.com/p/a-system-for-trading-dow-30-stocks-my_8.html
MONDAY MARKET INTERNALS (NYSE
DATA)
My basket of Market Internals remained BUY. (My basket of Market
Internals is a decent trend-following analysis of current market action, but
should not be used alone for short term trading. They are most useful when they
diverge from the Index.)
...My current invested
position is about 65% stocks, including stock mutual funds and ETFs. I’m
usually about 50% invested in stocks. I’m “over invested” now expecting new,
all-time highs sooner rather than later.
I have about 25% of the portfolio in bonds.
I trade about 15-20% of the total portfolio using the
momentum-based analysis I provide here. When I see a definitive bottom, I add a
lot more stocks to the portfolio using an S&P 500 ETF as I did back in
October.
