“Trade what you see; not what you think.” – The Old Fool, Richard McCranie, trader extraordinaire.
“So, is the U.S. stock market in bubble territory? High-profile investors like Warren Buffett seem to think so: Berkshire Hathaway’s cash as a percentage of assets hit a record high of 27% last quarter, and Buffett has even offloaded all of Berkshire’s market-tracking ETFs... The current value of the bubble detector— [is] an all-time high of 0.3655... Thanks to a “healthy” dose of helicopter money from the Fed during the pandemic, as well as (albeit exciting) AI-related breakthroughs in the U.S. tech industry, stocks have ripped higher for the last five years, outpacing growth in personal income per capita.” Story at...
Warren Buffett acts like the U.S. stock market is in bubble territory. He might be onto something
“Vice President J.D. Vance has caused a new international incident by lobbing insults at the United States' top ally. The Murdoch-owned U.K. tabloid The Sun reports that Britons of all political stripes are denouncing Vance after he described their nation as "some random country that hasn't fought a war in 30 or 40 years" during an appearance on Fox News Monday night. Of course, British troops fought side by side with American soldiers in both Iraq and Afghanistan, and The Sun notes that 636 U.K. soldiers died fighting in both wars.” Story at...
Fury in UK as JD Vance lobs new insult at America's top ally
My cmt: What an incompetent. His only talent seems to be that he is a Trump toady.
“Private sector employment increased by 77,000 jobs in February and annual pay was up 4.7 percent year-over-year, according to the February ADP® National Employment Report™... ‘Policy uncertainty and a slowdown in consumer spending might have led to layoffs or a slowdown in hiring last month," said Nela Richardson, chief economist, ADP. "Our data, combined with other recent indicators, suggests a hiring hesitancy among employers as they assess the economic climate ahead.’" Press release at...
https://www.prnewswire.com/news-releases/adp-national-employment-report-private-sector-employment-increased-by-77-000-jobs-in-february-annual-pay-was-up-4-7-302393083.html
My cmt: This was a very poor number.
“New orders for manufactured durable goods in January, up following two consecutive monthly decreases, increased $8.7 billion or 3.1% to $286.0 billion, the U.S. Census Bureau announced. This followed a 1.8% December decrease. Excluding transportation, new orders were virtually unchanged. Excluding defense, new orders increased 3.5%.” Report at...
https://www.census.gov/manufacturing/m3/adv/current/index.html
“Economic activity in the services sector expanded for the seventh consecutive month in January, say the nation's purchasing and supply executives... The Services PMI® registered 52.8 percent, indicating expansion for the 53rd time in 56 months since recovery from the coronavirus pandemic-induced recession began in June 2020.... ‘January was the second month in a row with all four subindexes that directly factor into the Services PMI® — Business Activity, New Orders, Employment and Supplier Deliveries — in expansion territory.’” Press release at...
https://www.prnewswire.com/news-releases/services-pmi-at-52-8-january-2025-services-ism-report-on-business-302367882.html
“New orders for U.S. manufactured goods surged by slightly more than expected in the month of January, according to a report released by the Commerce Department on Wednesday. The report said factory orders shot up by 1.7 percent in January after falling by a revised 0.6 percent in December.” Story at...
https://www.rttnews.com/3518967/u-s-factory-orders-jump-slightly-more-than-expected-in-january.aspx
-Wednesday the S&P 500 rose about 1.1% to 5843.
-VIX dropped about 7% to 21.93.
-The yield on the 10-year Treasury rose (compared to about this time, prior trading day) to 4.313%.
None
Today, of the 50-Indicators I track, 17 gave Bear-signs and 4 were Bullish. The rest are neutral. (It is normal to have a lot of neutral indicators since many of the indicators are top or bottom indicators that will signal only at extremes.)
We got a bounce, as we expected, due to the oversold conditions in Bollinger Bands and RSI. Or was it just the news? The news seems to be driving market direction, though it is not clear that this pullback is solely the result of Trump Tariffs. The high for the S&P 500 was about 2-weeks ago, while the Technology Sector Select Fund (KLK-ETF) peaked about 3 weeks ago. Tariffs were a concern then, but not the pressing issue they are now. Would an end to tariffs return the markets to new highs? Curiously, the buying-pressure/selling-pressure indicator peaked back in October, before Trump was elected, so it is always possible that there is more to this pullback than meets the eye.
Regardless, all I can do is read the indicator, tea-leaves and hope to call a bottom, near the bottom.
I am bearish with a very conservative allocation of only about 30% invested in stock holdings.
TODAY’S RANKING OF 15 ETFs (Ranked Daily) ETF ranking follows:
*For additional background on the ETF ranking system see NTSM Page at…
http://navigatethestockmarket.blogspot.com/p/exchange-traded-funds-etf-ranking.html
The top ranked Stock receives 100%. The rest are then ranked based on their momentum relative to the leading Stock.
For more details, see NTSM Page at…
https://navigatethestockmarket.blogspot.com/p/a-system-for-trading-dow-30-stocks-my_8.html
I trade about 15-20% of the total portfolio using the momentum-based analysis I provide here. When I see bullish signs, I add a lot more stocks to the portfolio, usually by using an S&P 500 ETF as I did back in October 2022 and 2023.
