“Trade what you see; not what you think.” – The Old Fool,
Richard McCranie, trader extraordinaire.
“Far
more money has been lost by investors in preparing for corrections, or anticipating
corrections, than has been lost in the corrections themselves.” - Peter
Lynch, former manager of Fidelity’s Magellan® fund.
“Tariffs proposed by U.S. President Donald
Trump are a "tax cut for Americans," White House Press
Secretary Karoline Leavitt said on Tuesday at a tense press conference...”
Story at...
White House tensions explode as Karoline Leavitt claims tariffs are a 'tax cut for Americans'
My cmt: She’s dumber than Biden's Press Secretary.
CAPITAL HILL’S REPUBLICAN SYCOPHANT CONGRESS (WSJ –
Excerpt)
“‘I don’t mind what Trump does, because I trust Trump.’ Thus spoke Sen. Lindsey Graham last week, cheerfully declaring the unconditional surrender of not only his own judgment, his freedom of thought, his relevance and his dignity, but—and this one actually matters—his role as a leading member of one of the elected branches of the U.S. government... As the president ventures further down a “diplomatic” track that punishes and alienates for no good reason our closest neighbor and ally, that rewards the tyranny of a murderous and implacable foe of America, that nods approvingly as the dictator of that country carries out the rape of a free nation, that casually slashes at the bonds of alliance that have served this country well and enhanced its global power and standing for decades, my question is: When is someone going to say something? By someone, I mean a member of the world’s greatest deliberative body—and maybe its junior partner across Capitol Hill too.” – Gerard Baker, Editor at Large, WSJ. Commentary at...
https://www.wsj.com/opinion/capitol-hills-republican-sycophant-caucus-trump-gop-congress-4e3056a5?mod=opinion_lead_pos6
My cmt: The WSJ is a right-wing paper.
NFIB BUSINESS OPTIMISM
“The NFIB Small Business Optimism Index fell by 2.1 points in February to 100.7. This is the fourth consecutive month above the 51-year average of 98 and is 4.4 points below its most recent peak of 105.1 in December. The Uncertainty Index rose four points to 104 – the second highest recorded reading...The net percent of owners expecting the economy to improve fell ten points from January to a net 37% (seasonally adjusted).” Story at...
https://www.nfib.com/news-article/monthly_report/sbet/
MARKET REPORT / ANALYSIS AS OF 1PM FRIDAY
-Tuesday the S&P 500 fell about 0.8% to 5572.
-VIX slipped about 3% to 27.89.
-The yield on the 10-year Treasury rose (compared to about this time, prior trading day) to 4.282%.
MY TRADING POSITIONS:
None
CURRENT SUMMARY OF APPROXIMATELY 50 INDICATORS:
Today, of the 50-Indicators I track, 18 gave Bear-signs and 5were Bullish. The rest are neutral. (It is normal to have a lot of neutral indicators since many of the indicators are top or bottom indicators that will signal only at extremes.)
TODAY’S COMMENT
As of today’s close, the S&P 500 was down 8.9% from its all-time high. The S&P 500 closed 2.9% below its 200-day.
The daily, bull-bear spread of 50-indicators declined to
a Bearish -13 (13 more Bear indicators than Bull indicators). The
10-dMA of the spread continues to move higher – that is a bullish sign, but
there has been no confirmation of this bullish trend so far.
We did note that volume was lower today than the volume yesterday
while the S&P 500 made a new low. That suggests some possible slowing of
the decline. We also see that unchanged
volume was very high. As I’ve often said, many believe that this indicator
suggests investor confusion at market turning points. Are markets turning back
up? Perhaps, the best we can say is that investors are confused. The
Buying-Pressure minus Selling Pressure indicator is still falling sharply so it
is not confirming reduced selling yet.
While volume did decline, but it was still about 20%
above the monthly average. Internals were worse today than yesterday – that’s
not a good sign. Still, we may be getting nearer to the end of this decline.
RSI and Bollinger Bands were both oversold so perhaps we’ll
see stocks bounce Wednesday.
BOTTOM LINE
No bottom yet. I am bearish with a very conservative allocation of only about 30% invested in stock holdings.
ETF - MOMENTUM ANALYSIS:
TODAY’S RANKING OF 15 ETFs (Ranked Daily) ETF ranking follows:
The top ranked ETF receives
100%. The rest are then ranked based on their momentum relative to the leading
ETF.
*For additional background on the ETF ranking system see NTSM Page at…
http://navigatethestockmarket.blogspot.com/p/exchange-traded-funds-etf-ranking.html
DOW STOCKS - TODAY’S MOMENTUM RANKING
OF THE DOW 30 STOCKS (Ranked Daily)
The top ranked Stock receives
100%. The rest are then ranked based on their momentum relative to the leading Stock.
For more details, see NTSM Page at…
https://navigatethestockmarket.blogspot.com/p/a-system-for-trading-dow-30-stocks-my_8.html
TUESDAY MARKET INTERNALS (NYSE
DATA)
My basket of Market Internals remained HOLD. (My basket of Market
Internals is a decent trend-following analysis that is most useful when it
diverges from the Index.)
...My current invested
position is about 30% stocks, including stock mutual funds and ETFs – extreme
bearish. (I’ll need to recalculate the %.) 50% invested in stocks is a normal
position. (75% is my max stock allocation when I am confident that markets will
continue higher; 30% in stocks is my Bear market position.)
I trade about 15-20% of the total portfolio using the momentum-based analysis I provide here. When I see bullish signs, I add a lot more stocks to the portfolio, usually by using an S&P 500 ETF as I did back in October 2022 and 2023.
White House tensions explode as Karoline Leavitt claims tariffs are a 'tax cut for Americans'
My cmt: She’s dumber than Biden's Press Secretary.
“‘I don’t mind what Trump does, because I trust Trump.’ Thus spoke Sen. Lindsey Graham last week, cheerfully declaring the unconditional surrender of not only his own judgment, his freedom of thought, his relevance and his dignity, but—and this one actually matters—his role as a leading member of one of the elected branches of the U.S. government... As the president ventures further down a “diplomatic” track that punishes and alienates for no good reason our closest neighbor and ally, that rewards the tyranny of a murderous and implacable foe of America, that nods approvingly as the dictator of that country carries out the rape of a free nation, that casually slashes at the bonds of alliance that have served this country well and enhanced its global power and standing for decades, my question is: When is someone going to say something? By someone, I mean a member of the world’s greatest deliberative body—and maybe its junior partner across Capitol Hill too.” – Gerard Baker, Editor at Large, WSJ. Commentary at...
https://www.wsj.com/opinion/capitol-hills-republican-sycophant-caucus-trump-gop-congress-4e3056a5?mod=opinion_lead_pos6
My cmt: The WSJ is a right-wing paper.
“The NFIB Small Business Optimism Index fell by 2.1 points in February to 100.7. This is the fourth consecutive month above the 51-year average of 98 and is 4.4 points below its most recent peak of 105.1 in December. The Uncertainty Index rose four points to 104 – the second highest recorded reading...The net percent of owners expecting the economy to improve fell ten points from January to a net 37% (seasonally adjusted).” Story at...
https://www.nfib.com/news-article/monthly_report/sbet/
-Tuesday the S&P 500 fell about 0.8% to 5572.
-VIX slipped about 3% to 27.89.
-The yield on the 10-year Treasury rose (compared to about this time, prior trading day) to 4.282%.
None
Today, of the 50-Indicators I track, 18 gave Bear-signs and 5were Bullish. The rest are neutral. (It is normal to have a lot of neutral indicators since many of the indicators are top or bottom indicators that will signal only at extremes.)
As of today’s close, the S&P 500 was down 8.9% from its all-time high. The S&P 500 closed 2.9% below its 200-day.
No bottom yet. I am bearish with a very conservative allocation of only about 30% invested in stock holdings.
TODAY’S RANKING OF 15 ETFs (Ranked Daily) ETF ranking follows:
*For additional background on the ETF ranking system see NTSM Page at…
http://navigatethestockmarket.blogspot.com/p/exchange-traded-funds-etf-ranking.html
For more details, see NTSM Page at…
https://navigatethestockmarket.blogspot.com/p/a-system-for-trading-dow-30-stocks-my_8.html
I trade about 15-20% of the total portfolio using the momentum-based analysis I provide here. When I see bullish signs, I add a lot more stocks to the portfolio, usually by using an S&P 500 ETF as I did back in October 2022 and 2023.
