PCE ... Momentum Trading DOW Stocks & ETFs … Stock Market Analysis ...

 
My competition...
 
“Trade what you see; not what you think.” – The Old Fool, Richard McCranie, trader extraordinaire.
 
“Far more money has been lost by investors in preparing for corrections, or anticipating corrections, than has been lost in the corrections themselves.” - Peter Lynch, former manager of Fidelity’s Magellan® fund.
 
RECESSION ODDS RISE (CNBC)
“According to CNBC, the likelihood of a U.S. recession in the next year is nearing a coin flip, with a Deutsche Bank survey putting the odds at over 40%. Sentiment surveys suggest rising anxiety among consumers and business leaders, while unemployment remains low and some data indicate continued growth. Fed Chair Jerome Powell still views the economy as “strong overall,” but the Fed has trimmed its GDP outlook 2025 and raised its core inflation forecast.” Video at...
Deutsche Bank Puts U.S. Recession Odds Above 40% Amid Mixed Economic Data | Watch
 
PCE (CNBC)
“The core personal consumption expenditures price index showed a 0.4% increase for the month, the biggest monthly gain since January 2024, putting the 12-month inflation rate at 2.8%...In the all-items measure, the price index rose 0.3% on the month and 2.5% from a year ago, both in line with forecasts... Households also grew more cautious with their money, as the personal saving rate increased to 4.6%, the highest since June 2024.” Story at...
https://www.cnbc.com/2025/03/28/pce-inflation-february-2025-.html
 
MARKET REPORT / ANALYSIS AS OF 1PM FRIDAY
-Friday the S&P 500 fell about 2% to 5581.
-VIX rose about 16% to 21.65.
-The yield on the 10-year Treasury declined to 4.253% (compared to about this time prior market day).
 
MY TRADING POSITIONS:
SSO added 3/24/2025 SOLD 3/25/2025 (Decided to reduce risk and buy SPY instead.)
 
XLK added 3/24/2025
SPY added 3/25/2025
 
CURRENT SUMMARY OF APPROXIMATELY 50 INDICATORS:
Today, of the 50-Indicators I track, 16 gave Bear-signs and 4 were Bullish. The rest are neutral. (It is normal to have a lot of neutral indicators since many of the indicators are top or bottom indicators that will signal only at extremes.)
 

TODAY’S COMMENT
Breadth crashed today and down goes Frazier, down goes Frazier...no, but the indicators fell as fast as Frazier. The daily, bull-bear spread of 50-indicators fell sharply and turned bearish at -12 (12 more Bear indicators than Bull indicators). I can’t recall ever seeing such a big reversal in my indicators, although the 10-dMA of the spread is still moving higher - bullish sign.
 
Looks like investors made up their minds. A retest of the low of 5522 looks likely now. That is only about a 1% decline from today’s close. As of today, the drop from the all-time high is 9.2%.
 
We won’t know anything until the S&P 500 retests the old low.  When it does, we may have a better idea whether there will be more downside.
 
BOTTOM LINE
I am neutral.
 
ETF - MOMENTUM ANALYSIS:
TODAY’S RANKING OF 15 ETFs (Ranked Daily) ETF ranking follows:
 

The top ranked ETF receives 100%. The rest are then ranked based on their momentum relative to the leading ETF.
*For additional background on the ETF ranking system see NTSM Page at…
http://navigatethestockmarket.blogspot.com/p/exchange-traded-funds-etf-ranking.html
 
DOW STOCKS - TODAY’S MOMENTUM RANKING OF THE DOW 30 STOCKS (Ranked Daily)
 

The top ranked Stock receives 100%. The rest are then ranked based on their momentum relative to the leading Stock.
For more details, see NTSM Page at…
https://navigatethestockmarket.blogspot.com/p/a-system-for-trading-dow-30-stocks-my_8.html
 
FRIDAY MARKET INTERNALS (NYSE DATA)

My basket of Market Internals fell to SELL. (My basket of Market Internals is a decent trend-following analysis that is most useful when it diverges from the Index.) 
 
 
 

...My current invested position is about 50% stocks, including stock mutual funds and ETFs. 50% invested in stocks is a normal position. (75% is my max stock allocation when I am confident that markets will continue higher; 30% in stocks is my Bear market position.)
                                             
I trade about 15-20% of the total portfolio using the momentum-based analysis I provide here. When I see bullish signs, I add a lot more stocks to the portfolio, usually by using an S&P 500 ETF as I did back in October 2022 and 2023.