Monday, February 23, 2026

Factory Orders … Momentum Trading DOW Stocks & ETFs … Stock Market Analysis

 
“Trade what you see; not what you think.” – The Old Fool, Richard McCranie, trader extraordinaire.
 
“Far more money has been lost by investors in preparing for corrections, or anticipating corrections, than has been lost in the corrections themselves.” - Peter Lynch, former manager of Fidelity’s Magellan® fund.
   
"This is maybe the most dangerous market of my career, and that includes 1987's crash, that includes the savings and loan debacle market of the early '90s, that includes the 1999 to 2009 lost decade in the S&P 500 in the dot-com bubble. This is the most difficult market of my 45 years." -  Bill Smead, Smead Value Fund (SMVLX), May 2025.”
 
THE TRUTH ABOUT TARIFFS (WSJ)
“The White House this week opened a new front in its war on the Federal Reserve: a fight about Fed research on the consequences of President Trump’s tariffs. If the tariffs are such an unambiguous economic and political winner, why is the Administration so defensive about them?
The flap concerns the analysis we told you about last week by four economists at the Federal Reserve Bank of New York. They found that American households and businesses are bearing nearly 90% of the cost of the Trump tariffs, contrary to Mr. Trump’s claim that foreigners will pay…
… If your tariff policy is so unpopular that you have to bully the central bank into not talking about it, maybe it’s time for a new policy.” – Opinion at…
 
HIGH BEEF PRICES SET TO LAST (WSJ)
“The Trump administration views easing beef prices as a top priority, enlisting top advisers to find solutions in policy meetings. This month, President Trump signed an executive order to quadruple beef imports from Argentina, though the volume is small, and to drop some tariffs on imports of Brazilian beef.” Story at…
My cmt: Trump claims tariffs don’t raise prices, but at the same time his administration is lowering tariffs on beef to reduce beef prices. Can’t have it both ways Donald. The liar-in-Chief strikes again.
 
FACTORY ORDERS (RTTNews)
“New orders for U.S. manufactured goods pulled back in line with expectations in the month of December, according to a report released by the Commerce Department on Monday…factory orders slid by 0.7 percent in December after surging by 2.7 percent in November.” Story at…
 
-Monday the S&P 500 declined about 1% to 6838.
-VIX rose about 10% to 21.01.
-The yield on the 10-year Treasury declined to 4.046% (compared to about this time prior market day).
 
MY TRADING POSITIONS
XLK – SOLD 2/11/2026
SPY – Added 12/1/2025.
NVDA – Added 12/1/2025 & 2/6/2026
 
CURRENT SUMMARY OF APPROXIMATELY 50 INDICATORS:
At the close today, of the 50-Indicators I track, 15 gave Bear-signs and 8 were Bullish. The rest are neutral. (It is normal to have a lot of neutral indicators since many of the indicators are top or bottom indicators that will signal only at extremes.)
 
TODAY’S COMMENT
The daily, bull-bear spread of 50-indicators declined to -7 (7 more Bear indicators than Bull indicators), a BEARISH indication. I consider +5 to -5 the neutral zone. The 10-dMA curve of the spread (purple on the chart above) that smooths daily fluctuations reversed down, a BEARISH sign.
 
Optimism about improved indicators vanished today.
 
Some new bear indicators:
-A return of the Fosback high-low logic index bearish signal.
-A new Bearish outside reversal.
-Bearish McClellan Oscillator.
-An S&P 500 drop below its 50-dMA
 
There was a new Hindenburg Omen today around mid-day. At closing, conditions improved enough to avoid the Omen, but the Fosback high-low logic index uses a similar methodology and it gave a bearish signal. The concern is that both new-highs and new-lows are elevated. That is showing an unhealthy market.
 
On Friday, PCE prices, the Fed’s preferred inflation gauge, was higher and GDP was an anemic 1.4%, nearly half the expected value. I wrote Friday that when the market goes up on bad news it’s a good sign, but I was not convinced. Today’s decline wasn’t much of a surprise. Recently, these small pullbacks have ended around the 100-dMA. We’re close enough that this decline could end now. I say, “Could.” Again, I am not convinced. The recent low was around 6800. I wouldn't be surprised to see markets get there again.
 
Levels of support are 6800, the 100-dMA and the 200-dMA: The S&P 500 is 0.2% above the 100-dMA and 4.6% above the 200-dMA.
 
BOTTOM LINE
I am remaining a nervous neutral on the markets.
 
ETF - MOMENTUM ANALYSIS:
TODAY’S RANKING OF 15 ETFs (Ranked Daily) ETF ranking follows:
 
The top ranked ETF receives 100%. The rest are then ranked based on their momentum relative to the leading ETF.
*For additional background on the ETF ranking system see NTSM Page at…
DOW STOCKS - TODAY’S MOMENTUM RANKING OF THE DOW 30 STOCKS (Ranked Daily)
 
 
The top ranked Stock receives 100%. The rest are then ranked based on their momentum relative to the leading Stock.
For more details, see NTSM Page at…
MONDAY MARKET INTERNALS (NYSE DATA)
My basket of Market Internals remained HOLD. (My basket of Market Internals is a decent trend-following analysis that is most useful when it diverges from the Index.) 
 
 
 
 
My invested position is about 55% stocks, including stock mutual funds and ETFs. 50% invested in stocks is a normal, conservative position for a retiree. (80% is my max stock allocation when I am confident that markets will continue higher; 30% in stocks is my Bear market position.)
                                              
I trade about 15-20% of the total portfolio using the momentum-based analysis I provide here although I don’t trade as much as I used to. When I see bullish signs, I add a lot more stocks to the portfolio, usually by using an S&P 500 ETF as I did back in October 2022 and 2023.
 
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