Philly Fed … Global PMI … Jobless Claims … Building Permits … Momentum Trading DOW Stocks & ETFs … Stock Market Analysis

 
“Trade what you see; not what you think.” – The Old Fool, Richard McCranie, trader extraordinaire.
 
“Far more money has been lost by investors in preparing for corrections, or anticipating corrections, than has been lost in the corrections themselves.” - Peter Lynch, former manager of Fidelity’s Magellan® fund.
 
“Never, never, never, believe any war will be smooth and easy, or that anyone who embarks on that strange voyage can measure the tides and hurricanes he will encounter. The Statesman who yields to war fever . . . is no longer the master of policy but the slave of unforeseeable and uncontrollable events.” - Winston Churchill.
 
“One of the painful signs of years of dumbed-down education is how many people are unable to make a coherent argument. They can vent their emotions, question other people’s motives, make bold assertions, repeat slogans—anything except reason.” ― Thomas Sowell, senior fellow at the Hoover Institution.
 
PHILLY FED (WSJ)
“Growth in manufacturing activity in the Philadelphia Fed’s region pulled back in May, although firms remained optimistic about the forward outlook. The Philly Fed’s monthly Manufacturing Business Outlook Survey showed its headline index falling to -0.4 this month, from 26.7 in April. Negative numbers indicate a contraction in the manufacturing sector.” Story at…
https://www.wsj.com/economy/central-banking/philly-fed-survey-shows-regional-manufacturing-stalled-a9d70c99
 
JOBLESS CLAIMS (ABC News)
“Fewer Americans filed for jobless aid last week as layoffs remain low despite a number of uncertainties that continue to cloud the economy. U.S. applications for unemployment benefits for the week ending May 16 fell by 3,000 to 209,000…” Story at…
https://abcnews.com/Business/wireStory/us-jobless-aid-filings-fell-209000-week-layoffs-133182650
 
BUILDING PERMITS (Advisor Perspectives)
“Building permits rose 5.8% to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 1.442 million. The latest reading exceeded the forecast of 1.380 million. Building permits are down 0.2% from the previous year.” Story at…
https://www.advisorperspectives.com/dshort/updates/2026/05/21/building-permits-rise-5-8-in-april-higher-than-expected?topic=real-estate
 
MANUFACTURING PMI (Reuters)
“U.S. manufacturing activity strengthened in ​May, scaling the highest level in four years, as businesses boosted inventories to guard against ‌potential shortages and rising prices related to the war with Iran.
S&P Global said its flash manufacturing PMI increased to 55.3 this month, the highest reading since May 2022…” Story at…
https://www.reuters.com/business/us-manufacturing-activity-rises-four-year-high-may-sp-global-survey-shows-2026-05-21/
 
QUICK MARKET SUMMARY
-Thursday the S&P 500 rose about 0.2% to 7446.
-VIX declined about 4% to 16.76.
-The yield on the 10-year Treasury declined to 4.574% (compared to about this time prior market day).
 
MY TRADING POSITIONS
NVDA – Added 12/1/2025 & 2/6/2026
“According to the 54 analysts' twelve-month price targets for NVIDIA, the average price target is $278.73. The highest price target for NVDA is $360.00, while the lowest price target for NVDA is $205.00.”- MarketBeat at… 
https://www.marketbeat.com/stocks/NASDAQ/NVDA/forecast/
5/20/26: Nvidia beats on revenue and guidance, adds $80 billion to buyback plan.
 
CURRENT SUMMARY OF APPROXIMATELY 50 INDICATORS:
At the close today, of the 50-Indicators I track, 14 gave Bear-signs and 10 were Bullish. The rest are neutral. (It is normal to have a lot of neutral indicators since many of the indicators are top or bottom indicators that will signal only at extremes.)
 
TODAY’S COMMENT
Pullback Data:
-Days since the top: 5
-Drop from the Top: 0.7%
-% above the 50-dMA: 6.8%
-% above the 200-dMA: 9.5%
Pullback? What pullback? Not much so far.
 
The daily, bull-bear spread of 50-indicators declined from -2 to -4 (4 more Bear indicators than Bull indicators), a NEUTRAL indication. I consider +5 to -5 the neutral zone. The 10-dMA curve of the spread (purple on the chart above) that smooths daily fluctuations continued down, a BEARISH sign that is more important than the daily numbers.
 
The Fosback Short-Term Hi/Low Index is still flashing sell today, Thursday. As noted previously, this is a reliable indicator.
 
Thursday, there we didn’t see another Hindenburg Omen. That doesn’t matter, we have seen enough of them already.  The Hindenburg Omen remains in place for 30-days unless the McClellan Oscillator is positive.
 
Breadth remains weak; only 47.5% of issues on the NYSE have been up over the last 2 weeks. For now, longer term breadth values are still ok.
 
Breadth, as measured by issues advancing on the NYSE, was ok at the top so that suggests that if we do see a correction that it would be less than 10%. On the low side, pullbacks of 3% to 5% are normal and happen all the time. Indicators are still neutral so the guess now is that we are likely to see a small correction. 
 
BOTTOM LINE
I am bearish in the short-term, still expecting a relatively small pullback.
 
ETF - MOMENTUM ANALYSIS:
TODAY’S RANKING OF 15 ETFs (Ranked Daily) ETF ranking follows:

The top ranked ETF receives 100%. The rest are then ranked based on their momentum relative to the leading ETF.
*For additional background on the ETF ranking system see NTSM Page at…
http://navigatethestockmarket.blogspot.com/p/exchange-traded-funds-etf-ranking.html
 
DOW STOCKS - TODAY’S MOMENTUM RANKING OF THE DOW 30 STOCKS (Ranked Daily)
 

The top ranked Stock receives 100%. The rest are then ranked based on their momentum relative to the leading Stock.
For more details, see NTSM Page at…
https://navigatethestockmarket.blogspot.com/p/a-system-for-trading-dow-30-stocks-my_8.html
 
THURSDAY MARKET INTERNALS (NYSE DATA)

My basket of Market Internals remained SELL. (My basket of Market Internals is a decent trend-following analysis that is most useful when it diverges from the Index.) 
 
 

My invested position is about 50% stocks, including stock mutual funds and ETFs. 50% invested in stocks is a normal, conservative position for a retiree. (80% is my max stock allocation when I am confident that markets will continue higher; 30% in stocks is my Bear market position.)
                                              
I trade about 15-20% of the total portfolio using the momentum-based analysis I provide here although I don’t trade as much as I used to. When I see bullish signs, I add a lot more stocks to the portfolio, usually by using an S&P 500 ETF as I did back in October 2022 and 2023.