Jobless Claims … Productivity … Construction Spending … Momentum Trading DOW Stocks & ETFs … Stock Market Analysis

 
“Trade what you see; not what you think.” – The Old Fool, Richard McCranie, trader extraordinaire.
 
“Far more money has been lost by investors in preparing for corrections, or anticipating corrections, than has been lost in the corrections themselves.” - Peter Lynch, former manager of Fidelity’s Magellan® fund.
 
“Never, never, never, believe any war will be smooth and easy, or that anyone who embarks on that strange voyage can measure the tides and hurricanes he will encounter. The Statesman who yields to war fever . . . is no longer the master of policy but the slave of unforeseeable and uncontrollable events.” - Winston Churchill.
 
JOBLESS CLAIMS / PRODUCTIVTY (Reuters)
“The number of Americans filing claims for unemployment benefits rose moderately last week amid low layoffs, underscoring labor market stability and strengthening financial market expectations that the Federal Reserve will not cut interest rates this year…A separate report from the Labor Department's Bureau of Labor Statistics showed nonfarm productivity, which measures hourly output per worker, increased at a 0.8% annualized rate in the first quarter…” Story at…
https://www.reuters.com/business/world-at-work/us-jobless-claims-increase-less-than-expected-amid-low-layoffs-2026-05-07/
 
CONSTRUCTION SPENDING (Colorado Biz)
“U.S. construction spending increased 0.6% from February to March as gains in residential construction and data center-related projects offset continued weakness in manufacturing and other nonresidential segments…” Story at…
https://coloradobiz.com/us-construction-spending-rises-6-percent-march/
 
QUICK MARKET SUMMARY
-Thursday the S&P 500 declined about 0.4% to 7337.
-VIX declined about 0.1% to 17.15.
-The yield on the 10-year Treasury declined to 4.386% (compared to about this time prior market day).
 
MY TRADING POSITIONS
SPY – Added 12/1/2025.
NVDA – Added 12/1/2025 & 2/6/2026
“Despite all the bearish noise, Goldman Sachs isn’t backing down on Nvidia (NVDA) stock yet. After another stellar GTC showing, the bank reiterated its $250 price target and maintained a buy rating, underscoring confidence in the AI giant’s tremendous upside from current levels.” Story at…  
Goldman Sachs sends blunt message on Nvidia stock after GTC
 
CURRENT SUMMARY OF APPROXIMATELY 50 INDICATORS:
At the close today, of the 50-Indicators I track, 7 gave Bear-signs and 15 were Bullish. The rest are neutral. (It is normal to have a lot of neutral indicators since many of the indicators are top or bottom indicators that will signal only at extremes.)
 

TODAY’S COMMENT
The daily, bull-bear spread of 50-indicators declined from +14 to +8 (8 more Bear indicators than Bull indicators), a BULLISH indication. I consider +5 to -5 the neutral zone. The 10-dMA curve of the spread (purple on the chart above) that smooths daily fluctuations reversed back lower, a BEARISH sign that is more important than the daily numbers.
 
Oops. I bought a trading position in a leveraged long position (SSO) because at 3PM, the 10-dMA of indicator spread was positive. It switched to a negative position on declining internals/indicators late in the day. That’s disappointing.
 
I’ll wait for indicators to improve before I slowly add more stock positions.
 
BOTTOM LINE
I am cautiously bullish; we may see some flattening of the FOMO trade.
 
ETF - MOMENTUM ANALYSIS:
TODAY’S RANKING OF 15 ETFs (Ranked Daily) ETF ranking follows:

The top ranked ETF receives 100%. The rest are then ranked based on their momentum relative to the leading ETF.
*For additional background on the ETF ranking system see NTSM Page at…
http://navigatethestockmarket.blogspot.com/p/exchange-traded-funds-etf-ranking.html
 
DOW STOCKS - TODAY’S MOMENTUM RANKING OF THE DOW 30 STOCKS (Ranked Daily)
 

The top ranked Stock receives 100%. The rest are then ranked based on their momentum relative to the leading Stock.
For more details, see NTSM Page at…
https://navigatethestockmarket.blogspot.com/p/a-system-for-trading-dow-30-stocks-my_8.html
 
THURSDAY MARKET INTERNALS (NYSE DATA)

My basket of Market Internals declined to HOLD. (My basket of Market Internals is a decent trend-following analysis that is most useful when it diverges from the Index.) 
 
 

My invested position is about 60% stocks, including stock mutual funds and ETFs. 50% invested in stocks is a normal, conservative position for a retiree. (80% is my max stock allocation when I am confident that markets will continue higher; 30% in stocks is my Bear market position.)
                                              
I trade about 15-20% of the total portfolio using the momentum-based analysis I provide here although I don’t trade as much as I used to. When I see bullish signs, I add a lot more stocks to the portfolio, usually by using an S&P 500 ETF as I did back in October 2022 and 2023.