Monday, May 11, 2026

Home Sales … Momentum Trading DOW Stocks & ETFs … Stock Market Analysis

“Trade what you see; not what you think.” – The Old Fool, Richard McCranie, trader extraordinaire.
 
“Far more money has been lost by investors in preparing for corrections, or anticipating corrections, than has been lost in the corrections themselves.” - Peter Lynch, former manager of Fidelity’s Magellan® fund.
 
“Never, never, never, believe any war will be smooth and easy, or that anyone who embarks on that strange voyage can measure the tides and hurricanes he will encounter. The Statesman who yields to war fever . . . is no longer the master of policy but the slave of unforeseeable and uncontrollable events.” - Winston Churchill.
 
“Chief Justice Roberts a couple of years ago famously said: ‘We don’t have Obama judges, and Biden judges, and Trump judges. We just have judges.’ So I would reject the label of a conservative justice, but I would say that I’m an originalist justice… I view myself as bound to apply the text of the Constitution—as I was saying, you know, I’m bound to apply the text of statutes—and to leave more things to the democratic process, that unless the Constitution speaks to it, then I think change should come through the ratification process. Change should come from the people.” - Amy Coney Barrett, Justice Supreme Court.  
 
“If Abigail Spanberger and Virginia Democrats had paid attention my October 2025 AG’s Opinion that made clear this scheme was unconstitutional and illegal, they could have saved more than $70 million, countless headaches, and months of obnoxious television ads defending the indefensible. Instead, they ignored the law, wasted taxpayer money on running a special election, and dragged Virginians through a completely avoidable mess,” - General Jason Miyares, former Virginia Attorney General commenting on the failed Virginia Gerrymandering that was rejected by the Virginia Supreme Court.
 
UNEQUAL BATTLE BETWEEN NEW YORK MAYOR ZOHRAN MAMDANI AND CITADEL CEO KEN GIRFFIN (WSJ-excerpt)
“In a video, the mayor complained that “rich” owners of second homes in his city don’t pay their fair share, pointing to “this penthouse, which hedge-fund CEO Ken Griffin bought for $238 million.”
Citadel in 2022 moved its headquarters from Chicago to Miami, but it still maintains a large New York presence—which made it a daft target to pick. The hedge fund’s team members have paid nearly $2.3 billion in city and state taxes in the past five years, while Citadel is deciding whether to redevelop a Park Avenue office that would create 15,000 permanent Midtown Manhattan jobs…
…“When we moved from Chicago, there was a debate between New York and Miami. It’s unquestionably true that we made the right choice,” he said. “And now what the mayor of New York has made clear to my partners, and principally my New York partners… is that we need to double down on our bet in Miami. Because we want to be in a state that embraces business, that embraces education, that embraces personal freedom and liberty, and that embraces people having an opportunity to live the American dream. And a dream of earned success, not a dream of redistributive handouts that leave people dependent on government for their lives and their livelihoods in a way that takes away dignity and honor.” - Kimberley A. Strassel, member of the editorial board for The Wall Street Journal. Opinion at…
 
ARE WE RELIVING THE LAST MONTH OF 1999 (CNBC)
“Stocks are not up or down because of jobs or consumer sentiment,” Burry [Michael Burry of “Big Short fame] wrote. “They are going straight up because they have been going straight up. On a two letter thesis that everyone thinks they understand... Feeling like the last months of the 1999-2000 bubble.”
Burry compared the recent trajectory of the Philadelphia Semiconductor Index (SOX) with the run-up that preceded the collapse of technology stocks in March 2000.” – Story at… 
 
EXISTING HOME SALES (RTTnews)
“After reporting a sharp pullback by U.S. existing home sales in the previous month, the National Association of Realtors released a report on Monday showing existing home sales rebounded by much less than expected in the month of April. NAR said existing home sales crept up by 0.2 percent to an annual rate of 4.02 million in April after plunging by 2.9 percent to a revised rate of 4.01 million in March.” Story at…
 
QUICK MARKET SUMMARY
-Monday the S&P 500 rose about 0.2% to 7413.
-VIX rose about 7% to 18.38.
-The yield on the 10-year Treasury rose to 4.412% (compared to about this time prior market day).
 
MY TRADING POSITIONS
SPY – Added 12/1/2025.
NVDA – Added 12/1/2025 & 2/6/2026
“Despite all the bearish noise, Goldman Sachs isn’t backing down on Nvidia (NVDA) stock yet. After another stellar GTC showing, the bank reiterated its $250 price target and maintained a buy rating, underscoring confidence in the AI giant’s tremendous upside from current levels.” Story at…  
SSO – Added 5/7/2026.
 
CURRENT SUMMARY OF APPROXIMATELY 50 INDICATORS:
At the close today, of the 50-Indicators I track, 5 gave Bear-signs and 17 were Bullish. The rest are neutral. (It is normal to have a lot of neutral indicators since many of the indicators are top or bottom indicators that will signal only at extremes.)
 

TODAY’S COMMENT
The daily, bull-bear spread of 50-indicators remained +12 (12 more Bull indicators than Bear indicators), a BULLISH indication. I consider +5 to -5 the neutral zone. The 10-dMA curve of the spread (purple on the chart above) that smooths daily fluctuations continued higher, a BULLISH sign that is more important than the daily numbers.
 
The S&P 500 made a new, all-time, high today (Monday). 140 issues on the NYSE made new, 52-week-highs today; that is below the 5-year average for this stat, but high enough to avoid trouble. Breadth, as measured by issues advancing on the NYSE, is ok too; we don’t need to worry about a correction >10% anytime soon. Concerns remain though.
 
As noted yesterday, the S&P 500 has gotten too far ahead of breadth-measures. Bollinger Bands are very close to overbought and RSI is elevated too. These signals will swing my top indicators to a short-term, top-warning if the S&P 500 rises by about 1% Tuesday. That would signal that a 3-5% decline is likely. I will sell leveraged positions when I get a top-warning.
 
I’ll wait for indicators to improve before I add more stock positions. If we do get a 3-5% decline, it will be time to buy-the-dip.
 
BOTTOM LINE
I am cautiously bullish.
 
ETF - MOMENTUM ANALYSIS:
TODAY’S RANKING OF 15 ETFs (Ranked Daily) ETF ranking follows:

The top ranked ETF receives 100%. The rest are then ranked based on their momentum relative to the leading ETF.
*For additional background on the ETF ranking system see NTSM Page at…

DOW STOCKS - TODAY’S MOMENTUM RANKING OF THE DOW 30 STOCKS (Ranked Daily)
 

The top ranked Stock receives 100%. The rest are then ranked based on their momentum relative to the leading Stock.
For more details, see NTSM Page at…

MONDAY MARKET INTERNALS (NYSE DATA)
My basket of Market Internals remained HOLD. (My basket of Market Internals is a decent trend-following analysis that is most useful when it diverges from the Index.) 
 
 
My invested position is about 60% stocks, including stock mutual funds and ETFs. 50% invested in stocks is a normal, conservative position for a retiree. (80% is my max stock allocation when I am confident that markets will continue higher; 30% in stocks is my Bear market position.)
                                              
I trade about 15-20% of the total portfolio using the momentum-based analysis I provide here although I don’t trade as much as I used to. When I see bullish signs, I add a lot more stocks to the portfolio, usually by using an S&P 500 ETF as I did back in October 2022 and 2023. 

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