“Trade what you see; not what you think.” – The Old Fool, Richard McCranie, trader extraordinaire.
“Never, never, never, believe any war will be smooth and easy, or that anyone who embarks on that strange voyage can measure the tides and hurricanes he will encounter. The Statesman who yields to war fever . . . is no longer the master of policy but the slave of unforeseeable and uncontrollable events.” - Winston Churchill.
“StubHub’s lobbying expenses have reached an all-time high in California …The company’s record spending follows AB 1720, a bill from state assembly member Matt Haney introduced in February that, if passed, would limit concert ticket resale prices to no more than 10 percent higher than a ticket’s original price.” Story at…
https://www.hollywoodreporter.com/music/music-industry-news/stubhub-lobbying-spending-concert-ticket-bill-1236664212/
My cmt: StubHub is a ticket resale platform that enables companies who buy blocks of tickets and resell them. There aren’t many ideas out of California that I endorse, but this looks like a good idea to me.
“The producer price index, a measure of underlying inflation pressures, was unchanged for the month, below the 0.2% Dow Jones consensus estimate and after falling 0.1% in June. The June figure was revised from a previously reported decline of 0.3%.” Story at…
https://www.cnbc.com/2026/08/13/wholesale-prices-were-flat-in-july-below-expectations-for-0point2percent-increase.html
“U.S. applications for unemployment benefits rose last week, but layoffs remain at historically healthy levels.
The Labor Department reported Thursday that 209,000 people filed jobless claims last week, up from a revised 200,000 the week before and higher than the 205,000 forecasters had expected.” Story at…
https://abcnews.com/Business/wireStory/us-unemployment-claims-rise-remain-healthy-level-135607988
-Thursday the S&P 500 rose about 0.7% to 7800.
-VIX rose about 0.6% to 14.63.
-The yield on the 10-year Treasury declined to 4.647% (compared to about this time prior market day).
QLD – Added 5/28/2026
NVDA – Added 12/1/2025, 2/6/2026 & 8/3/2026
XLK – Added 6/5/2026
At the close today, of the 50-Indicators I track, 2 gave Bear-signs and 19 were Bullish. The rest are neutral. (It is normal to have a lot of neutral indicators since many of the indicators are top or bottom indicators that will signal only at extremes.)
The daily, bull-bear spread of 50-indicators improved from +13 to +17 (17 more Bull indicators than Bear indicators), a BULLISH indication. I consider +5 to -5 the neutral zone. The 10-dMA curve of the spread (purple on the chart above) that smooths daily fluctuations continued higher, a BULLISH sign.
but, the Iran conflict could always surprise markets to the downside.
I’m bullish.
TODAY’S RANKING OF 15 ETFs (Ranked Daily) ETF ranking follows:
The top ranked ETF receives 100%. The rest are then ranked based on their momentum relative to the leading ETF.
*For additional background on the ETF ranking system see NTSM Page at…
http://navigatethestockmarket.blogspot.com/p/exchange-traded-funds-etf-ranking.html
The top ranked Stock receives 100%. The rest are then ranked based on their momentum relative to the leading Stock.
For more details, see NTSM Page at…
https://navigatethestockmarket.blogspot.com/p/a-system-for-trading-dow-30-stocks-my_8.html
My invested position is about 60% stocks, including stock mutual funds and ETFs. 50% invested in stocks is a normal, conservative position for a retiree. (80% is my max stock allocation when I am confident that markets will continue higher; 30% in stocks is my Bear market position.)
I trade about 15-20% of the total portfolio using the momentum-based analysis I provide here although I don’t trade as much as I used to. When I see bullish signs, I add a lot more stocks to the portfolio, usually by using an S&P 500 ETF as I did back in October 2022 and 2023.
