… Momentum Trading DOW Stocks & ETFs … Stock Market Analysis

 
“Trade what you see; not what you think.” – The Old Fool, Richard McCranie, trader extraordinaire.
 
“Far more money has been lost by investors in preparing for corrections, or anticipating corrections, than has been lost in the corrections themselves.” - Peter Lynch, former manager of Fidelity’s Magellan® fund.
 
“Never, never, never, believe any war will be smooth and easy, or that anyone who embarks on that strange voyage can measure the tides and hurricanes he will encounter. The Statesman who yields to war fever . . . is no longer the master of policy but the slave of unforeseeable and uncontrollable events.” - Winston Churchill.
 
“There’s a lot of exuberance out there,” Dimon continued. “But it was in 1972, 1986, 2000, 2007. That doesn’t give me comfort.” – Jamie Dimon
 
CAN DEMOCRATS RESIST SOCIALISM (WSJ-Excerpt)
“The official DSA [Democrat Socialists of America] platform is truly Bolshevik. It calls for “public ownership” of large corporations and “essential industries,” “aggressive wealth taxes,” defunding the “Department of War,” “publicly owned social housing,” abolishing police and prisons “fully,” abolishing the Senate, and making the Supreme Court and president subordinate to Congress. Its promise of a “classless” “world without war or poverty” is in keeping with the honeyed vows of failed socialist experiments through history, all of which ended in one-party dictatorship…That Mr. El-Sayed [DSA winner of the Michigan Senate Democrat primary] won only narrowly in a Democratic primary is proof that many Democrats are crying out for a noncrazy version of the El-Sayed energy. If Democratic leaders hope to save their party from a socialist takeover, they’ll have to find a backbone to do it themselves. No one is coming to save them.” – Kimberley Strassel, Opinion Columnist, Potomac Watch, The Wall Street Journal. Opinion at…
https://www.wsj.com/opinion/can-democrats-resist-socialism-20092dff
 
QUICK MARKET SUMMARY
-Monday the S&P 500 declined about 0.1% to 7753.
-VIX rose about 4% to 15.46.
-The yield on the 10-year Treasury rose to 4.705% (compared to about this time prior market day).
 
MY TRADING POSITIONS
QLD – Added 5/28/2026
NVDA – Added 12/1/2025, 2/6/2026 & 8/3/2026
XLK – Added 6/5/2026
 
CURRENT SUMMARY OF APPROXIMATELY 50 INDICATORS:
At the close today, of the 50-Indicators I track, 7 gave Bear-signs and 16 were Bullish. The rest are neutral. (It is normal to have a lot of neutral indicators since many of the indicators are top or bottom indicators that will signal only at extremes.)
 

TODAY’S COMMENT
The daily, bull-bear spread of 50-indicators declined from +17 to +9 (9 more Bull indicators than Bear indicators), a BULLISH indication. I consider +5 to -5 the neutral zone. The 10-dMA curve of the spread (purple on the chart above) that smooths daily fluctuations continued higher, a BULLISH sign.
 
McClellan Oscillator turned negative, but not by much. This is a breadth indicator. Most of the other breadth indicators are bullish.
 
Monday, there was another New Hindenburg Omen.
“The Hindenburg Omen is a technical analysis indicator that attempts to predict stock market crashes by identifying periods of market instability. It is named after the Hindenburg disaster, a German airship that caught fire in 1937. The omen is triggered when specific market conditions, such as a large number of stocks making both new 52-week highs and lows, occur within a short time frame.” – Investopedia.
 
Hindenburg Omens don’t have a great record of being correct; however, they do tend to give a good signal if there is a cluster of Omens. We’ve seen 2 in the last 3 trading-session, but only the 3 in the last 2 weeks. The Short-term Fosback High/Low Logic Index uses a similar methodology and it is very close to issuing a sell signal. These indicators, and a couple of the other bearish ones, are based on 52-week, New-High/New-low data.
 
The Smart Money indicator is bearish.
 
While there are some bearish signs, at this point, bull signs still outpace bear signs by 2 to 1 so no point in getting too worried.
 
BOTTOM LINE
I’m remain bullish, watching markets climb the wall of worry.
 
ETF - MOMENTUM ANALYSIS:
TODAY’S RANKING OF 15 ETFs (Ranked Daily) ETF ranking follows:
 

 
The top ranked ETF receives 100%. The rest are then ranked based on their momentum relative to the leading ETF.
*For additional background on the ETF ranking system see NTSM Page at…
http://navigatethestockmarket.blogspot.com/p/exchange-traded-funds-etf-ranking.html

DOW STOCKS - TODAY’S MOMENTUM RANKING OF THE DOW 30 STOCKS (Ranked Daily)
 

The top ranked Stock receives 100%. The rest are then ranked based on their momentum relative to the leading Stock.
For more details, see NTSM Page at…
https://navigatethestockmarket.blogspot.com/p/a-system-for-trading-dow-30-stocks-my_8.html

MONDAY MARKET INTERNALS (NYSE DATA)-

My basket of Market Internals declined to HOLD. (My basket of Market Internals is a decent trend-following analysis that is most useful when it diverges from the Index.) 
 
                                                                         

My invested position is about 60% stocks, including stock mutual funds and ETFs. 50% invested in stocks is a normal, conservative position for a retiree. (80% is my max stock allocation when I am confident that markets will continue higher; 30% in stocks is my Bear market position.)
                                              
I trade about 15-20% of the total portfolio using the momentum-based analysis I provide here although I don’t trade as much as I used to. When I see bullish signs, I add a lot more stocks to the portfolio, usually by using an S&P 500 ETF as I did back in October 2022 and 2023.