PPI … Momentum Trading DOW Stocks & ETFs … Stock Market Analysis

 
“Trade what you see; not what you think.” – The Old Fool, Richard McCranie, trader extraordinaire.
 
“Far more money has been lost by investors in preparing for corrections, or anticipating corrections, than has been lost in the corrections themselves.” - Peter Lynch, former manager of Fidelity’s Magellan® fund.
 
“Never, never, never, believe any war will be smooth and easy, or that anyone who embarks on that strange voyage can measure the tides and hurricanes he will encounter. The Statesman who yields to war fever . . . is no longer the master of policy but the slave of unforeseeable and uncontrollable events.” - Winston Churchill.
 
PPI (CNBC)
“The producer price index, which measures the prices domestic producers get for their products before they reach the consumer, rose a seasonally adjusted 0.3% for the month… Stripping out food and energy, core PPI posted a 0.3% gain, meeting expectations. On an annual basis, headline PPI accelerated 6.5%...” Story at….
https://www.cnbc.com/2026/11/13/ppi-inflation-report-october-2026.html
 
QUICK MARKET SUMMARY
-Friday the S&P 500 declined about 0.4% to 7562.
-VIX rose about 3% to 19.3.
-The yield on the 10-year Treasury rose to 5.139% (compared to about this time most recent trading day).
 
MY TRADING POSITIONS
NVDA – Reduced position 10/7/2026
XLK – Added 6/5/2026. Reduced 11/10/2026
 
CURRENT SUMMARY OF APPROXIMATELY 50 INDICATORS:
At the close today, of the 50-Indicators I track, 18 gave Bear-signs and 4 were Bullish. The rest are neutral. (It is normal to have a lot of neutral indicators since many of the indicators are top or bottom indicators that will signal only at extremes.)

TODAY’S COMMENT
The daily, bull-bear spread of 50-indicators remained -14 (14 more Bear indicators than Bull indicators), a BEARISH indication. I consider +5 to -5 the neutral zone. The 10-dMA curve of the spread (purple on the chart above) that smooths daily fluctuations, continued sharply down, a BEARISH sign.
 
Where is the S&P 500?
          - 3.3% below its all-time high
          - 1.4% below its 50-dMA
          - 0.8% whisker below its 100-dMA
          - 3% above its 200-dMA
 
The S&P 500 was rejected in its attempt to cross above its 100-dMA. We continue to watch that key level along with the 50-dMA.
 
Headline Producer inflation at 6.5% year over year looks like a real worry to me. Add in the Iran conflict and I wonder again whether these issues are properly baked into stock prices.
 
The CME Group Fed Watch web site has an 89% expectation of a one quarter point rate hike and an 11% chance of a half point hike at the next Fed meeting (9 December). There is now a 68% possibility of another quarter point hike at the 27 January meeting and a 50% chance of a quarter point in March. From...
https://www.cmegroup.com/markets/interest-rates/cme-fedwatch-tool
 
 
BOTTOM LINE
I‘m NEUTRAL, but cautious. It wouldn’t take much to turn me Bearish. Thursday’s sharp drop in indicators is usually a sign of further declines in the S&P 500.
 
ETF - MOMENTUM ANALYSIS:
TODAY’S RANKING OF 15 ETFs (Ranked Daily) ETF ranking follows:

 
The top ranked ETF receives 100%. The rest are then ranked based on their momentum relative to the leading ETF.
*For additional background on the ETF ranking system see NTSM Page at…
http://navigatethestockmarket.blogspot.com/p/exchange-traded-funds-etf-ranking.html
 
DOW STOCKS - TODAY’S MOMENTUM RANKING OF THE DOW 30 STOCKS (Ranked Daily)

The top ranked Stock receives 100%. The rest are then ranked based on their momentum relative to the leading Stock.
For more details, see NTSM Page at…
https://navigatethestockmarket.blogspot.com/p/a-system-for-trading-dow-30-stocks-my_8.html
 
FRIDAY MARKET INTERNALS (NYSE DATA)-

My basket of Market Internals remained SELL. (My basket of Market Internals is a decent trend-following analysis that is most useful when it diverges from the Index.) 
 
                                                                         

My invested position is about 50% stocks, including stock mutual funds and ETFs. 50% invested in stocks is a normal, conservative position for a retiree. (80% is my max stock allocation when I am confident that markets will continue higher; 30% in stocks is my Bear market position.)
                                              
I trade about 15-20% of the total portfolio using the momentum-based analysis I provide here although I don’t trade as much as I used to. When I see bullish signs, I add a lot more stocks to the portfolio, usually by using an S&P 500 ETF as I did back in October 2022 and 2023.