Momentum Trading DOW Stocks & ETFs … Stock Market Analysis ...

 
“Trade what you see; not what you think.” – The Old Fool, Richard McCranie, trader extraordinaire.
 
“Below is [a link to] my column in the New York Post on the expansion of the 14th Amendment theory to attempt to remove Republican candidates for Congress from the ballots. Dozens of Democratic members have already called for the disqualification of up to 126 Republican colleagues under the same sweeping theory. These efforts show how this theory could place this country on a slippery slope to political chaos if not clearly and finally rejected by the Supreme Court.” - Jonathan Turley, attorney, and professor at George Washington University Law School. Jonathan Turley, New York Post column at...
https://jonathanturley.org/2024/01/05/ballot-cleansing-democrats-are-moving-to-bar-republicans-from-ballots-nationwide/#more-213777
my cmt: The test for disqualification isn’t whether they “questioned’ the outcome of an election. Those who were part of an insurrection to overturn the 2020 Presidential election (primarily those who participated in a conspiracy to forward phony electoral college slates) should be disqualified from holding office. If that includes current members of Congress, so be it.  
 
“Attorneys for the former president want the case dismissed [in Georgia] on grounds that he has “presidential immunity” from actions while in office, that he was already acquitted for similar allegations in his second impeachment trial, and that he was never told that what he was doing in the state – where he is charged as part of an alleged racketeering scheme to unlawfully subvert the state’s election results – could be prosecuted.” – From the Independent at...
Trump claims he didn’t have ‘fair notice’ that Georgia actions could be illegal (msn.com)
My cmt: “He was never told...” Now his defense is stupidity?!? I am sorry if you are tired of me ragging on Trump. I continue to be surprised that he has any supporters. They aren’t Deplorables though – they are the Gullibles.
 
MARKET REPORT / ANALYSIS
-Monday the S&P 500 rose about 1.4% to 4764.
-VIX dipped about 2% to 13.08.
-The yield on the 10-year Treasury slipped to 4.027%.
 
PULLBACK DATA:
-Drop from Top: 0.7%. 25.4% max (on a closing basis).
-Trading Days since All-Time Top: 505-days. (The top was 3 January 2022.)
The S&P 500 is 8.9% ABOVE its 200-dMA and 4.7% ABOVE its 50-dMA.
*I won’t call the correction over until the S&P 500 makes a new all-time-high; however, the major bear-market bottom of the 25% decline was in the 3600 area and we called a buy on 4 October 2022.
 
MY TRADING POSITIONS:
XLK – Technology ETF (holding since the October 2022 lows).
XLY - Consumer Discretionary ETF. (Holding since the October 2022 lows - I bought more XLY 8/21/23.)
INTC – Added 12/6/2023.
 
BA – Added 12/6/2023.
DWCPF - Dow Jones U.S. Completion Total Stock Market Index. – Added 12/7/2023. This is a large position in my retirement account betting on Small Caps.
 
TODAY’S COMMENT:

That’s a nice bullish chart – up all day into the close.
 
The summary of indicators on Friday were 10-bear and 10-bull for a spread of zero The spread remained zero today, so I can’t say the mild pullback we have been observing is over. I would have preferred to see the Index pull back to its lower trendline.  That didn’t happen, but that isn’t necessarily a bearish sign.  Technology was the big winner today, up around 2.5%. Intel was up over 3% so it sure looked like we had the pullback that never was.
 
Monday was a statistically significant up-day. That just means that the price-volume move exceeded my statistical parameters. Statistics show that a statistically-significant, up-day is followed by a down-day about 60% of the time so we may still see market weakness. 
 
The daily spread of 20 Indicators (Bulls minus Bears) improved from -3 to zero (a positive number is bullish; negatives are bearish); the 10-day smoothed sum that smooths the daily fluctuations declined from +31 to +20. (The trend direction is more important than the actual number for the 10-day value.) These numbers sometimes change after I post the blog based on data that comes in late. Most of these 20 indicators are short-term so they tend to bounce around a lot.
 
LONG-TERM INDICATOR: The Long Term NTSM indicator remained HOLD: PRICE, VIX, VOLUME & SENTIMENT are neutral.
 
(One warning: The Long-Term Indicator is not a good top-indicator. It can signal BUY at a top.)
 
(The important major BUY in this indicator was on 21 October 2022, 7-days after the bear-market bottom. For my NTSM overall signal, I suggested that a short-term buying opportunity occurred on 27 September (based on improved market internals on the retest), although without market follow-thru, I was unwilling to call a buy; however, I did close shorts and increased stock holdings. I issued a Buy-Signal on 4 October, 6-days before the final bottom, based on stronger market action that confirmed the market internals signal. The NTSM sell-signal was issued 21 December, 9 sessions before the high of this recent bear market, based on the bearish “Friday Rundown” of indicators.)
 
BOTTOM LINE
I remain bullish. We still seem to be in a short-term pullback to the lower trend line, but signals are mixed today. A decline of about 3% more would be perfectly normal.
 
ETF - MOMENTUM ANALYSIS:
TODAY’S RANKING OF 15 ETFs (Ranked Daily)
ETF ranking follows:

The top ranked ETF receives 100%. The rest are then ranked based on their momentum relative to the leading ETF.
*For additional background on the ETF ranking system see NTSM Page at…
http://navigatethestockmarket.blogspot.com/p/exchange-traded-funds-etf-ranking.html
DOW STOCKS - TODAY’S MOMENTUM RANKING OF THE DOW 30 STOCKS (Ranked Daily)
DOW 30 momentum ranking follows:

The top ranked Stock receives 100%. The rest are then ranked based on their momentum relative to the leading Stock.
For more details, see NTSM Page at…
https://navigatethestockmarket.blogspot.com/p/a-system-for-trading-dow-30-stocks-my_8.html

MONDAY MARKET INTERNALS (NYSE DATA)

My basket of Market Internals remained HOLD. (My basket of Market Internals is a decent trend-following analysis of current market action, but should not be used alone for short term trading. They are most useful when they diverge from the Index.) 
 

...My current invested position is about 65% stocks, including stock mutual funds and ETFs. I’m usually about 50% invested in stocks. I’m “over invested” now expecting new, all-time highs this year. That burns all the cash.  I have about 25% of the portfolio in bonds.
 
I trade about 15-20% of the total portfolio using the momentum-based analysis I provide here. When I see a definitive bottom, I add a lot more stocks to the portfolio using an S&P 500 ETF as I did back in October.

Payroll Report .... Unemployment Rate ... Factory Orders ... ISM Non-Manufacturing ... Momentum Trading DOW Stocks & ETFs … Stock Market Analysis ...

"The least productive Congress in decades." — Michael  Ramirez. Political commentary at...
https://michaelramirez.substack.com/p/michael-ramirez-christmas-returns?r=ntzh3&utm_campaign=post&utm_medium=web
 

Final Christmas Quiz: Name the carol about a Homo Sapien of Crystallized Vapor.

“Trade what you see; not what you think.” – The Old Fool, Richard McCranie, trader extraordinaire.
 
“The effort to submit slates of so-called "fake electors" in Michigan — which then-President Donald Trump narrowly lost in 2020 — appears to have been a project of the Trump campaign itself, according to a recent report. On Thursday night, the Detroit News reported on internal emails from the Trump campaign that showed how the former president's top legal advisers like John Eastman, Boris Epshteyn and Kenneth Chesebro (now cooperating in multiple states' fake elector investigations) "directly orchestrated" the effort to steal Electoral College votes from then-candidate Joe Biden.” Story at...
Trump campaign 'directly orchestrated' Mich. fake elector plot to 'maintain power': report (msn.com)
 
PAYROLL REPORT / UNEMPLOYMENT RATE (Yahoo Finance)
“U.S. employers hired more workers than expected in December while raising wages at a solid clip, casting some doubt on financial market expectations that the Federal Reserve would start cutting interest rates in March. Nonfarm payrolls increased by 216,000 jobs last month... The unemployment rate was unchanged at 3.7%.” Story at...
https://finance.yahoo.com/news/healthy-us-december-payrolls-gain-135258694.html
 
FACTORY ORDERS (Yahoo Finance)
“New orders for U.S.-made goods increased more than expected in November amid a surge in demand for civilian aircraft, government data showed on Friday
Factory orders rose 2.6%...” Story at... 
https://finance.yahoo.com/news/us-factory-orders-rebound-november-153910564.html
 
ISM NON-MANUFACTURING PMI (ISM via prnewswire)
"In December, the Services PMI® registered 50.6 percent, 2.1 percentage points lower than November's reading of 52.7 percent... "The services sector had a pullback in the rate of growth in December, attributed to the decrease in the rate of growth for new orders and contraction in employment.” Press release at...
https://www.prnewswire.com/news-releases/services-pmi-at-50-6-december-2023-services-ism-report-on-business-302026587.html
 
MARKET REPORT / ANALYSIS
-Friday the S&P 500 rose about 0.2% to 4697. (Yesterday’s close was 4689, not 4699.)
-VIX dipped about 6% to 13.35. (The Options Crowd isn’t worried about this pullback.
-The yield on the 10-year Treasury rose to 4.051%.
 
PULLBACK DATA:
-Drop from Top: 2.1%. 25.4% max (on a closing basis).
-Trading Days since All-Time Top: 504-days. (The top was 3 January 2022.)
The S&P 500 is 7.5% ABOVE its 200-dMA and 3.5% ABOVE its 50-dMA.
*I won’t call the correction over until the S&P 500 makes a new all-time-high; however, the major bear-market bottom of the 25% decline was in the 3600 area and we called a buy on 4 October 2022.
 
MY TRADING POSITIONS:
XLK – Technology ETF (holding since the October 2022 lows).
XLY - Consumer Discretionary ETF. (Holding since the October 2022 lows - I bought more XLY 8/21/23.)
INTC – Added 12/6/2023.
 
BA – Added 12/6/2023.
DWCPF - Dow Jones U.S. Completion Total Stock Market Index. – Added 12/7/2023. This is a large position in my retirement account betting on Small Caps.
 
TODAY’S COMMENT:
I sold SSO and QLD on 18 December based on top indications. That was less than 1% below the top of this recent weakness. That looks ok now, but short-term calls are not my specialty, so it may turn out that staying long would have been the better choice. I didn’t stay long because preserving capital is more important than earning every nickel...and leveraged positions lose money quickly in a declining market.
 
When I got ready to sell XLK (Technology Sector), I noticed that it was at its December support line, so I held off on selling for now. If it falls much further, I’ll sell. (I’ll probably regret this decision.)
 
We look at a summary of indicators on Friday. (These indicators tend to be both long-term and short-term, so they are different than the 20 that I report on daily.) The weekly rundown of indicators slipped a little toward the bear side, but remained bullish this week: now 10-bear and 10-bull.
 
BULL SIGNS
-The 10-dMA percentage of issues advancing on the NYSE (Breadth) is above 50%.
-The 50-dMA percentage of issues advancing on the NYSE (Breadth) is above 50%.
-The 100-dMA percentage of issues advancing on the NYSE (Breadth) is above 50%
-MACD of the percentage of issues advancing on the NYSE (breadth) made a bullish crossover 12 October.
-Long-term new-high/new-low data.
-The short-term, 10-day EMA, Fosback Hi-Low Logic Index.
-Slope of the 40-dMA of New-highs is rising.
-There was a high up-volume day on 21 December canceling the High down-volume day on 20 December. In addition, there were back-to-back, high up-volume days (80%+) on the NYSE 13 & 14 Dec.
-The 5-10-20 Timer System is BUY.
-61% of the 15-ETFs that I track have been up over the last 10-days. (45-55% is neutral.)
 
NEUTRAL
-There have been 4 Distribution Days since the last Follow-thru Day.
 -There has been 1 Statistically-Significant days (big moves in price-volume) in the last 15-days.
-Bollinger Bands.
-Overbought/Oversold Index (Advance/Decline Ratio).
-Sentiment.
-Bollinger Band Squeeze 28 April - expired.
-The 50-dMA percentage of issues advancing on the NYSE (Breadth) has not been below 50%, for more than 3 days in a row.
-On average, the size of up-moves has been larger than the size of down-moves over the last month, but not enough to send a signal.
-Smoothed Buying Pressure minus Selling Pressure.
-VIX indicator.
-The long-term, 50-dEMA, Fosback Hi-Low Logic Index.
-There have been 14 up-days over the last 20 sessions.
-There have been 6 up-days over the last 10 sessions.
-RSI.
-XLI-ETF (Cyclical Industrials) vs the S&P 500.
-The Calm-before-the-Storm/Panic Indicator flashed a top warning signal 15 Sept., but it may well have been a bottom signal. - Expired
-There was a New-high/New-low spread reversal on 4 October (based on std deviation of spread). - Expired
-The S&P 500 is 7.5% above its 200-dMA. (Bear indicator is 12% above the 200-day.)
-There were Hindenburg Omen signals 11 & 12 Sept 2023 – expired. The McClellan Oscillator turned positive.
-2.8% of all issues traded on the NYSE made new, 52-week highs when the S&P 500 made a new all-time-high, 3 January 2022. (There is no bullish signal for this indicator.) This indicated that the advance was too narrow and a correction was likely to be >10%. It proved correct, but is now Expired.
-20 December there was a Bearish Outside Reversal Day, but the S&P 500 closed above the high for 20 December, 4778, on 27 & 28 December so this one is now neutral.
-There was a Zweig Breadth Thrust 3 November. That’s a rare, very-bullish sign, but the McClellan Oscillator turned negative.
 
BEAR SIGNS
-The smoothed advancing volume on the NYSE is falling.
-Issues advancing on the NYSE (Breadth) compared to the S&P 500.
-MACD of S&P 500 price made a bearish crossover 29 Dec.
-My Money Trend indicator.
-Short-term new-high/new-low data.
-The 5-day EMA is below the 10-day EMA, so short-term momentum is bearish.
-The Smart Money (late-day action).
-The graph of the 100-day Count (the 100-day sum of up-days).
-McClellan Oscillator.
-S&P 500 spread vs. Utilities (XLU-ETF).
 
On Monday’s update of the Friday summary of indicators (20 December 2021), 9 days before the top of the current 25% correction, there were 21 bear-signs and zero bull-signs. Now there are 10 bear-signs and 10-Bull. Last week, there were 6 bear-sign and 18 bull-signs.
 
The daily spread of 20 Indicators (Bulls minus Bears) remained -3 (a positive number is bullish; negatives are bearish); the 10-day smoothed sum that smooths the daily fluctuations declined from +44 to +31. (The trend direction is more important than the actual number for the 10-day value.) These numbers sometimes change after I post the blog based on data that comes in late. Most of these 20 indicators are short-term so they tend to bounce around a lot.
 
LONG-TERM INDICATOR: The Long Term NTSM indicator remained HOLD: PRICE, VIX, VOLUME & SENTIMENT are neutral.
 
(One warning: The Long-Term Indicator is not a good top-indicator. It can signal BUY at a top.)
 
(The important major BUY in this indicator was on 21 October 2022, 7-days after the bear-market bottom. For my NTSM overall signal, I suggested that a short-term buying opportunity occurred on 27 September (based on improved market internals on the retest), although without market follow-thru, I was unwilling to call a buy; however, I did close shorts and increased stock holdings. I issued a Buy-Signal on 4 October, 6-days before the final bottom, based on stronger market action that confirmed the market internals signal. The NTSM sell-signal was issued 21 December, 9 sessions before the high of this recent bear market, based on the bearish “Friday Rundown” of indicators.)
 
BOTTOM LINE
I remain bullish. We are in a short-term pullback to the lower trend line. A decline of about 3% more would be perfectly normal.
 
ETF - MOMENTUM ANALYSIS:
TODAY’S RANKING OF 15 ETFs (Ranked Daily)
ETF ranking follows:

The top ranked ETF receives 100%. The rest are then ranked based on their momentum relative to the leading ETF.
*For additional background on the ETF ranking system see NTSM Page at…
http://navigatethestockmarket.blogspot.com/p/exchange-traded-funds-etf-ranking.html
 
DOW STOCKS - TODAY’S MOMENTUM RANKING OF THE DOW 30 STOCKS (Ranked Daily)
DOW 30 momentum ranking follows:

The top ranked Stock receives 100%. The rest are then ranked based on their momentum relative to the leading Stock.
For more details, see NTSM Page at…
https://navigatethestockmarket.blogspot.com/p/a-system-for-trading-dow-30-stocks-my_8.html
 
FRIDAY MARKET INTERNALS (NYSE DATA)

My basket of Market Internals remained HOLD. (My basket of Market Internals is a decent trend-following analysis of current market action, but should not be used alone for short term trading. They are most useful when they diverge from the Index.) 
 

...My current invested position is about 65% stocks, including stock mutual funds and ETFs. I’m usually about 50% invested in stocks. I’m “over invested” now expecting new, all-time highs this year relatively soon. 
 
I trade about 15-20% of the total portfolio using the momentum-based analysis I provide here. When I see a definitive bottom, I add a lot more stocks to the portfolio using an S&P 500 ETF as I did back in October.
 
CHRISTMAS QUIZ: Ans.
"Frosty the Snowman" is a popular Christmas song written by Walter "Jack" Rollins and Steve Nelson, and first recorded by Gene Autry and the Cass County Boys in 1950 and later recorded by Jimmy Durante in that year.” – Wikipedia.

Jobless Claims .... ADP Employment ... Crude Oil Inventories ... Momentum Trading DOW Stocks & ETFs … Stock Market Analysis ...

 
CHRISTMAS QUIZ: Name the Christmas Carol about a Quadruped with Crimson Proboscis. Answer at end of Blog.
 
“Trade what you see; not what you think.” – The Old Fool, Richard McCranie, trader extraordinaire.
 
“My 40-year career in the U.S. Forest Service leads me to believe that your editorial “Biden’s New Forest Plan Will Backfire” (Dec. 22) is correct. Banning the harvest of timber on 25 million acres of “old growth” forest will have the direct opposite effect on carbon emissions that the Biden administration wants by precluding the effective protection of those lands from devastating wildfires.” - Richard Chase, WSJ letters to the Editor.
My cmt: The Democrats keep doing things that sound good instead of actually helping the environment. The Keystone pipeline was another example.  There, they canceled the pipeline to reduce global warming, but oil still has to get to the refineries. Now it travels by rail at higher carbon impact, more risk of spills and at higher cost. Go figure....?
 
ADP EMPLOYMENT CHANGE (ADP)
“Private sector employment increased by 164,000 jobs in December and annual pay was up 5.4 percent year-over-year, according to the December ADP® National Employment Report produced by the ADP Research Institute® in collaboration with the Stanford Digital Economy Lab ("Stanford Lab").” Press release at...
https://www.prnewswire.com/news-releases/adp-national-employment-report-private-sector-employment-increased-by-164-000-jobs-in-december-annual-pay-was-up-5-4-302026295.html
 
JOBLESS CLAIMS (AP News)
“The number of Americans applying for unemployment benefits fell last week as the labor market continues to show resilience despite elevated interest rates. Jobless claims fell to 202,000 for the week ending Dec. 30, down by 18,000 from the previous week...” Story at...
https://apnews.com/article/unemployment-benefits-jobless-claims-layoffs-labord0c029590a524133ab596fd5ed3ad6bd
 
EIA CRUDE OIL INVENTORIES (EIA)
“U.S. commercial crude oil inventories (excluding those in the Strategic Petroleum Reserve) decreased by 5.5 million barrels from the previous week. At 431.1 million barrels, U.S. crude oil inventories are about 2% below the five-year average for this time of year.” Report at...
https://ir.eia.gov/wpsr/wpsrsummary.pdf
 
MARKET REPORT / ANALYSIS
-Thursday the S&P 500 declined about 0.1% to 4699.
-VIX dipped about 1% to 13.91. (The Options Crowd isn’t worried about this pullback.)
-The yield on the 10-year Treasury rose to 4.003%.
 
PULLBACK DATA:
-Drop from Top: 1.9%. 25.4% max (on a closing basis).
-Trading Days since All-Time Top: 503-days. (The top was 3 January 2022.)
The S&P 500 is 7.4% ABOVE its 200-dMA and 3.5% ABOVE its 50-dMA.
*I won’t call the correction over until the S&P 500 makes a new all-time-high; however, evidence suggests the major bear-market bottom of the 25% decline was in the 3600 area and we called a buy on 4 October 2022.
 
MY TRADING POSITIONS:
XLK – Technology ETF (holding since the October 2022 lows).
XLY - Consumer Discretionary ETF. (Holding since the October 2022 lows - I bought more XLY 8/21/23.)
INTC – Added 12/6/2023.
 
BA – Added 12/6/2023.
DWCPF - Dow Jones U.S. Completion Total Stock Market Index. – Added 12/7/2023. This is a large position in my retirement account betting on Small Caps.
 
TODAY’S COMMENT:
Apple and Microsoft are selling due to their relatively high PEs. Those 2 stocks make up half of XLK and that explains recent price action for the XLK. It has fallen out of my top 3 momentum plays so I will take profits in XLK. I’m leaning toward IBB as a replacement. ITA is a reasonable choice, but I already own Boeing and that’s nearly 20% of ITA. I can’t bring myself to buy the Financials (XLF), but I don’t have a good reason for avoiding them.
 
Once again, the S&P 500 faded toward the end of the day and that isn’t encouraging for ending the ongoing pullback.  Indicators fell into a neutral zone from a very bullish point suggesting a pullback.
The 50-dMA is now 4531.  It is not likely that the S&P 500 will fall that far; the 50-dMA is rising so my guess for worst case pullback is still in the 4550-4600 area (about 3% below today’s close).
 
The daily spread of 20 Indicators (Bulls minus Bears) improved from -4 to -3 (a positive number is bullish; negatives are bearish); the 10-day smoothed sum that smooths the daily fluctuations declined from +58 to +44. (The trend direction is more important than the actual number for the 10-day value.) These numbers sometimes change after I post the blog based on data that comes in late. Most of these 20 indicators are short-term so they tend to bounce around a lot.
 
LONG-TERM INDICATOR: The Long Term NTSM indicator remained HOLD: PRICE, VIX, VOLUME & SENTIMENT are neutral.
 
(One warning: The Long-Term Indicator is not a good top-indicator. It can signal BUY at a top.)
 
(The important major BUY in this indicator was on 21 October 2022, 7-days after the bear-market bottom. For my NTSM overall signal, I suggested that a short-term buying opportunity occurred on 27 September (based on improved market internals on the retest), although without market follow-thru, I was unwilling to call a buy; however, I did close shorts and increased stock holdings. I issued a Buy-Signal on 4 October, 6-days before the final bottom, based on stronger market action that confirmed the market internals signal. The NTSM sell-signal was issued 21 December, 9 sessions before the high of this recent bear market, based on the bearish “Friday Rundown” of indicators.)
 
BOTTOM LINE
I remain bullish, but indicators and markets are weak and a decline of 3-4% more would be perfectly normal.
 
ETF - MOMENTUM ANALYSIS:
TODAY’S RANKING OF 15 ETFs (Ranked Daily)
ETF ranking follows:

The top ranked ETF receives 100%. The rest are then ranked based on their momentum relative to the leading ETF.
*For additional background on the ETF ranking system see NTSM Page at…
http://navigatethestockmarket.blogspot.com/p/exchange-traded-funds-etf-ranking.html
 
DOW STOCKS - TODAY’S MOMENTUM RANKING OF THE DOW 30 STOCKS (Ranked Daily)
DOW 30 momentum ranking follows:

The top ranked Stock receives 100%. The rest are then ranked based on their momentum relative to the leading Stock.
For more details, see NTSM Page at…
https://navigatethestockmarket.blogspot.com/p/a-system-for-trading-dow-30-stocks-my_8.html
 
THURSDAY MARKET INTERNALS (NYSE DATA)

My basket of Market Internals remained HOLD. (My basket of Market Internals is a decent trend-following analysis of current market action, but should not be used alone for short term trading. They are most useful when they diverge from the Index.) 
 

...My current invested position is about 65% stocks, including stock mutual funds and ETFs. I’m usually about 50% invested in stocks. I’m “over invested” now expecting new, all-time highs this year. That burns all the cash.  I have about 25% of the portfolio in bonds.
 
I trade about 15-20% of the total portfolio using the momentum-based analysis I provide here. When I see a definitive bottom, I add a lot more stocks to the portfolio using an S&P 500 ETF as I did back in October.
 
CHRISTMAS QUIZ: Ans.
Rudolf the Red Nosed Reindeer. “Robert L. May created Rudolph in 1939 as an assignment for Chicago-based Montgomery Ward. The retailer had been buying and giving away coloring books for Christmas every year and it was decided that creating their own book would save money... While May was pondering how best to craft a Christmas story about a reindeer, while staring out his office window in downtown Chicago, a thick fog from Lake Michigan blocked his view—giving him a flash of inspiration. "Suddenly I had it!" he recalled. "A nose! A bright red nose that would shine through fog like a spotlight...” - Wikipedia.
 
Gene Autry wrote the song "Rudolph, the Red-Nosed Reindeer" along with “Santa Claus Is Comin' to Town", "Here Comes Santa Claus" and "Frosty the Snowman." 

FED Minutes ... ISM Manufacturing Index ... JOLTS Job Openings ... Momentum Trading DOW Stocks & ETFs … Stock Market Analysis ...

 
CHRISTMAS QUIZ: “When do the 12-days of Christmas begin?” Answer at end of Blog.
 
“Trade what you see; not what you think.” – The Old Fool, Richard McCranie, trader extraordinaire.
 
LET THE PEOPLE DECIDE (WSJ)
“Shenna Bellows, Maine’s secretary of state, has ordered Donald Trump’s name removed from the Republican primary ballot. Invoking Section 3 of the post-Civil War 14th Amendment, Ms. Bellows claims Mr. Trump engaged in insurrection against the U.S. when he did whatever he did, or didn’t do, on Jan. 6, three years ago this week. Recently, Colorado’s Supreme Court ordered Mr. Trump’s name deleted from that state’s Republican primary ballot for the same reason... In such a dispute, a democracy must revert to its essential idea: the sovereignty of the people. It isn’t for unelected judges, or provincial officials, to make such a decision. The people themselves, in their millions, must render their verdict in the voting booth.” – Lance Morrow, senior fellow at the Ethics and Public Policy Center. Opinion from the WSJ at... 
https://www.wsj.com/articles/trump-vs-the-woke-let-the-people-decide-if-he-is-on-the-ballot-maine-colorado-dcaf41ce
My cmt: Mr. Morrow’s opinion (“Trump vs. the Woke: Let the People Decide”) misses a crucial point. The insurrection wasn’t the riot on 6 January; Trump’s insurrection occurred when he put forth a phony slate of electoral college voters in multiple swing states in an attempt to “win” an election he clearly lost. He led an insurrection; he is not qualified to be President of the United States. Further, why should we trust voters? Right-wing-broadcasters bolstered Trump’s lies that gave him voter support he didn’t earn. If it weren’t for Fox Broadcasting, Trump probably would have been disqualified from running when he was impeached.
 
How will the Supreme Court rule? I wouldn’t be surprised if they push it back to the lower courts and wait for prosecutors to prove the case that Trump led the phony electors scheme. That way they will buy time.  They can hope (as most do) that Trump will not be the GOP candidate.
 
I am a right-wing guy, but I respect the Constitution while Trump ignores it. He only respects himself.
 
TRUMP PAID ME TO FIND VOTER FRAUD. THEN HE LIED AFTER I FOUND 2020 ELECTION WASN’T STOLEN (USA Today via msn.com)
“In November 2020, former President Donald Trump asserted that voter fraud had altered the outcome of the 2020 presidential election. The day after the election, his campaign hired an expert in voter data to attempt to prove Trump’s allegations and put him back in the White House. I am the expert... The findings of my company’s in-depth analysis...found no evidence of voter fraud sufficient to change the outcome of any election. That message was communicated directly to White House chief of staff Mark Meadows... More important, claims of voter fraud made by others were verified as false, including proof of why those claims were disproven.” Story at...
Trump paid me to find voter fraud. Then he lied after I found 2020 election wasn't stolen. (msn.com)
 
FOMC (FED) MINUTES (CNBC)
"Federal Reserve officials in December concluded that interest rate cuts are likely in 2024, though they appeared to provide little in the way of when that might occur, according to minutes from the meeting released Wednesday. At the meeting, the rate-setting Federal Open Market Committee agreed to hold its benchmark rate steady in a range between 5.25% and 5.5%. Members indicated that they expect three quarter-percentage point cuts by the end of 2024.” Story at...
https://www.cnbc.com/2024/01/03/fed-minutes-december-2023-.html
 
ISM MANUFACTURING INDEX (ISM)
“The Manufacturing PMI® registered 47.4 percent in December, up 0.7 percentage point from the 46.7 percent recorded in November. The overall economy continued in contraction for a third month after one month of weak expansion...” Report at...
https://www.ismworld.org/supply-management-news-and-reports/reports/ism-report-on-business/pmi/december/
 
JOLTS JOB OPENINGS (CNBC)
“Demand for workers fell to its lowest level in more than 2½ years in November while hirings and layoffs both moved lower, the Labor Department reported Wednesday. The department’s Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey showed employment listings nudged lower to 8.79 million...” Story at...
https://www.cnbc.com/2024/01/03/jolts-november-2023-job-openings-nudged-lower-down-to-1point4-per-available-worker.html
 
MARKET REPORT / ANALYSIS
-Wednesday the S&P 500 declined about 0.8% to 4705.
-VIX rose about 6% to 14.04.
-The yield on the 10-year Treasury slipped to 3.900%.
 
PULLBACK DATA:
-Drop from Top: 1.9%. 25.4% max (on a closing basis).
-Trading Days since All-Time Top: 502-days. (The top was 3 January 2022.)
The S&P 500 is 7.9% ABOVE its 200-dMA and 4.1% ABOVE its 50-dMA.
*I won’t call the correction over until the S&P 500 makes a new all-time-high; however, evidence suggests the major bear-market bottom of the 25% decline was in the 3600 area and we called a buy on 4 October 2022.
 
MY TRADING POSITIONS:
XLK – Technology ETF (holding since the October 2022 lows).
XLY - Consumer Discretionary ETF. (Holding since the October 2022 lows - I bought more XLY 8/21/23.)
INTC – Added 12/6/2023.
 
BA – Added 12/6/2023.
DWCPF - Dow Jones U.S. Completion Total Stock Market Index. – Added 12/7/2023. This is a large position in my retirement account betting on Small Caps.
 
TODAY’S COMMENT:
 

Today is the 2^nd anniversary of the last all-time high (4797) on the S&P 500. The Index has gone no where in 2 years while it experienced a 25% bear market in 2022 and a 10% correction in 2023. We can expect better in 2024.
 
The S&P 500 faded toward the end of the day and that isn’t encouraging for ending what appears to be an ongoing pullback.  Indicators have been fading and they got worse again today. The 50-dMA is now 4522.  It is not likely that the S&P 500 will fall that far; the 50-dMA is rising so my guess for worst case pullback is probably in the 4550-4600 area (about 3-4% below today’s close).
 

The daily spread of 20 Indicators (Bulls minus Bears) declined from -1 to -5 (a positive number is bullish; negatives are bearish); the 10-day smoothed sum that smooths the daily fluctuations declined from +67 to +57. (The trend direction is more important than the actual number for the 10-day value.) These numbers sometimes change after I post the blog based on data that comes in late. Most of these 20 indicators are short-term so they tend to bounce around a lot.
 
LONG-TERM INDICATOR: The Long Term NTSM indicator declined to HOLD: PRICE, VIX, VOLUME & SENTIMENT are neutral.
 
(One warning: The Long-Term Indicator is not a good top-indicator. It can signal BUY at a top.)
 
(The important major BUY in this indicator was on 21 October 2022, 7-days after the bear-market bottom. For my NTSM overall signal, I suggested that a short-term buying opportunity occurred on 27 September (based on improved market internals on the retest), although without market follow-thru, I was unwilling to call a buy; however, I did close shorts and increased stock holdings. I issued a Buy-Signal on 4 October, 6-days before the final bottom, based on stronger market action that confirmed the market internals signal. The NTSM sell-signal was issued 21 December, 9 sessions before the high of this recent bear market, based on the bearish “Friday Rundown” of indicators.)
 
BOTTOM LINE
I remain bullish, but indicators and markets are weak and a decline of 3-4% more would be perfectly normal.
 
ETF - MOMENTUM ANALYSIS:
TODAY’S RANKING OF 15 ETFs (Ranked Daily)
ETF ranking follows:

The top ranked ETF receives 100%. The rest are then ranked based on their momentum relative to the leading ETF.
*For additional background on the ETF ranking system see NTSM Page at…
http://navigatethestockmarket.blogspot.com/p/exchange-traded-funds-etf-ranking.html
 
DOW STOCKS - TODAY’S MOMENTUM RANKING OF THE DOW 30 STOCKS (Ranked Daily)
DOW 30 momentum ranking follows:

The top ranked Stock receives 100%. The rest are then ranked based on their momentum relative to the leading Stock.
For more details, see NTSM Page at…
https://navigatethestockmarket.blogspot.com/p/a-system-for-trading-dow-30-stocks-my_8.html
 
WEDNESDAY MARKET INTERNALS (NYSE DATA)

My basket of Market Internals remained HOLD. (My basket of Market Internals is a decent trend-following analysis of current market action, but should not be used alone for short term trading. They are most useful when they diverge from the Index.)  
 

...My current invested position is about 65% stocks, including stock mutual funds and ETFs. I’m usually about 50% invested in stocks. I’m “over invested” now expecting new, all-time highs this year. That burns all the cash.  I have about 25% of the portfolio in bonds.
 
I trade about 15-20% of the total portfolio using the momentum-based analysis I provide here. When I see a definitive bottom, I add a lot more stocks to the portfolio using an S&P 500 ETF as I did back in October.
 
CHRISTMAS QUIZ: Ans.
“The 12 days of Christmas is the period in Christian theology that marks the span between the birth of Christ and the coming of the Magi, the three wise men. It begins on December 25 (Christmas) and runs through January 6 (the Epiphany, sometimes also called Three Kings’ Day). The four weeks preceding Christmas are collectively known as Advent, which begins four Sundays before Christmas and ends on December 24.” From...
https://www.vox.com/21796404/12-days-of-christmas-explained
 

Construction Spending ... Momentum Trading DOW Stocks & ETFs … Stock Market Analysis

 

Political commentary by Michael Ramirez from...
https://michaelpramirez.com/index.html
 
CHRISTMAS QUIZ: Who sang the original and [arguably] most famous version of the “Little Drummer Boy?” Answer at end of blog. 
 
“Trade what you see; not what you think.” – The Old Fool, Richard McCranie, trader extraordinaire.
 
“My 2024 prediction: Trump will be a massive complaining, belly-aching, whining, weak, soft, annoying, incredibly sheepish, victim this entire coming year. And his sheep will desperately look at him with googly eyes for inspiration as they mimic his victimness." – Adam Kinziger, Former Republican Representative. 
 
“I’ve never seen this much anger at the two major parties and this high a disappointment about the fact that we may be left with a choice of Presidents Trump and Biden, once again.” - Joe Lieberman, former Senator and founder of No Labels.
 

Slide from Chris Ciovacco’s presentation at...
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ekwoBMmj9Ik
My cmt: To be clear, Chris Ciovacco is suggesting that the current Secular Bull Trend could last until 2035.
 
“Earlier this month, Barron’s highlighted the 2024 S&P 500 targets for six investment strategists including yours truly. Our target is the highest at 5,400, based on projected S&P 500 earnings per share of $250 next year... Last week, we raised our 2025 target for the S&P 500 price index to 6,000, as our “Roaring 2020s” scenario is looking not only possible, but also probable.” – Ed Yardini, Yardini Research. From...
Ed Yardeni: 12 reasons why you’ll see the S&P 500 at 5,400 in 2024 (msn.com)
 
CONSTRUCTION SPENDING
“US construction spending rose less than expected in November amid a decline in outlays on public projects, but data for the prior month was revised sharply higher suggesting underlying strength in the sector. The Commerce Department said on Tuesday that construction spending increased 0.4%.” Story at...
https://finance.yahoo.com/news/us-construction-spending-rises-less-153328561.html
 
MARKET REPORT / ANALYSIS
-Tuesday the S&P 500 dipped about 0.6% to 4743.
-VIX rose about 6% to 13.2.
-The yield on the 10-year Treasury rose to 3.941%.
 
PULLBACK DATA:
-Drop from Top: 1.1%. 25.4% max (on a closing basis).
-Trading Days since All-Time Top: 500-days. (The top was 3 January 2022.)
The S&P 500 is 8.8% ABOVE its 200-dMA and 5.1% ABOVE its 50-dMA.
*I won’t call the correction over until the S&P 500 makes a new-high; however, evidence suggests the major bear-market bottom of the 25% decline was in the 3600 area and we called a buy on 4 October 2022.
 
MY TRADING POSITIONS:
XLK – Technology ETF (holding since the October 2022 lows).
XLY - Consumer Discretionary ETF. (Holding since the October 2022 lows - I bought more XLY 8/21/23.)
INTC – Added 12/6/2023.
 
BA – Added 12/6/2023.
DWCPF - Dow Jones U.S. Completion Total Stock Market Index. – Added 12/7/2023. This is a large position in my retirement account betting on Small Caps.
 
TODAY’S COMMENT:
“As a reminder, at this time in 2022, predictions of recession were the norm—and on some measures stronger than they had ever been outside an actual recession.” – James Mackintosh, WSJ Op-Ed.
We were bullish almost the entire year and over-invested for all of it.  We listened to the stock markets and they were telling us no recession. “This is not the recession you are looking for. You can go about your business.  Move along.”
 
I am bullish for this year, too, but the markets are starting the year with some profit taking for those who wanted to delay tax gains until 2024. The 2023 winners were losers for day one of trading including Boeing and Intel, two that I own. Let’s hope their declines are short-term.  
 
My “Friday” Summary of Indicators dropped to 11-Bear and 15-Bull indicators from 6-Bear and 18-Bull Friday.
 
The daily spread of 20 Indicators (Bulls minus Bears) declined from +2 to -1 (a positive number is bullish; negatives are bearish); the 10-day smoothed sum that smooths the daily fluctuations declined from +81 to +67. (The trend direction is more important than the actual number for the 10-day value.) These numbers sometimes change after I post the blog based on data that comes in late. Most of these 20 indicators are short-term so they tend to bounce around a lot.
 
LONG-TERM INDICATOR: The Long Term NTSM indicator declined to HOLD: PRICE is bullish; VIX, VOLUME & SENTIMENT are neutral. (One warning: The Long-Term Indicator is not a good top-indicator. It can signal BUY at a top.)
 
(The important major BUY in this indicator was on 21 October 2022, 7-days after the bear-market bottom. For my NTSM overall signal, I suggested that a short-term buying opportunity occurred on 27 September (based on improved market internals on the retest), although without market follow-thru, I was unwilling to call a buy; however, I did close shorts and increased stock holdings. I issued a Buy-Signal on 4 October, 6-days before the final bottom, based on stronger market action that confirmed the market internals signal. The NTSM sell-signal was issued 21 December, 9 sessions before the high of this recent bear market, based on the bearish “Friday Rundown” of indicators.)
 
BOTTOM LINE
I remain bullish, but markets appear weak (based on falling indicators) and a decline of 3-5% would be perfectly normal.
 
ETF - MOMENTUM ANALYSIS:
TODAY’S RANKING OF 15 ETFs (Ranked Daily)
ETF ranking follows:

The top ranked ETF receives 100%. The rest are then ranked based on their momentum relative to the leading ETF.
*For additional background on the ETF ranking system see NTSM Page at…
http://navigatethestockmarket.blogspot.com/p/exchange-traded-funds-etf-ranking.html

DOW STOCKS - TODAY’S MOMENTUM RANKING OF THE DOW 30 STOCKS (Ranked Daily)
DOW 30 momentum ranking follows:

The top ranked Stock receives 100%. The rest are then ranked based on their momentum relative to the leading Stock.
For more details, see NTSM Page at…
https://navigatethestockmarket.blogspot.com/p/a-system-for-trading-dow-30-stocks-my_8.html

TUESDAY MARKET INTERNALS (NYSE DATA)

My basket of Market Internals remained HOLD. (My basket of Market Internals is a decent trend-following analysis of current market action, but should not be used alone for short term trading. They are most useful when they diverge from the Index.)  THIS INDICATOR GET’S CONFUSED WHEN VOLUMES ARE CONSISTENTLY LOW, LIKE DURING THE HOLIDAYS.
 

...My current invested position is about 65% stocks, including stock mutual funds and ETFs. I’m usually about 50% invested in stocks. I’m “over invested” now expecting new, all-time highs this year. That burns all the cash.  I have about 25% of the portfolio in bonds.
 
I trade about 15-20% of the total portfolio using the momentum-based analysis I provide here. When I see a definitive bottom, I add a lot more stocks to the portfolio using an S&P 500 ETF as I did back in October.
 
CHRISTMAS QUIZ: Ans. Harry Simeone Chorale. Harry Moses Simeone (May 9, 1910 – February 22, 2005) was an American music arranger, conductor and composer who popularized the Christmas song "The Little Drummer Boy"... The single "The Little Drummer Boy" quickly became extremely popular and scored on the U.S. music charts from 1958 to 1962. The Simeone Chorale had another Christmas success during 1962, with their rendition of the then-new song "Do You Hear What I Hear?" for Mercury Records.” – Wikipedia.