Bullish Stock Call … INTEL … Stock Market Analysis… ETF Trading … Dow 30 Ranking

ALL 35 TIMES STOCKS WERE HIGHER (CNBC)

"We're still overweight stocks at the expense of bonds and we really do expect to hold that positioning at least until the end of the year before we would potentially downshift to neutral," Tepper told CNBC's "Trading Nation" on Thursday. "Our research says absolutely no recession until 2020, so it does make sense to stay overweight stocks right now." Story at…

https://www.cnbc.com/2018/06/22/all-35-times-markets-did-this-stocks-ended-the-year-higher.html

 

INTEL (CNBC)

“Shares of the chipmaker slid 2.38 percent on Thursday after Krzanich [CEO] resigned, effective immediately, for having what the company called a "consensual relationship with an Intel employee"…"What matters to me is that the stock is now too cheap to be ignored because at the same time they released [the] Krzanich [news], they also told you that business was better than expected thanks to strong growth across all segments," the host of "Mad Money" [Jim Cramer] said Thursday. "The stock looks good to me." Story at…

https://www.cnbc.com/2018/06/21/cramer-ceo-change-aside-intels-stock-is-too-cheap-at-these-levels.html

My cmt: The PE for Intel is 22.8. The Dow 30 PE was 24.2 according to Birinyi Associates.

 

MARKET REPORT / ANALYSIS         

-Friday the S&P 500 was up about 0.2% to 2755.

-VIX dipped about 6% to 13.77. 

-The yield on the 10-year Treasury slipped slightly to 2.893%.

 

My daily sum of 17 Indicators was unchanged at -6, while the 10-day smoothed version dropped from -7 to -18. A number below zero shows most indicators are bearish.

 

RSI (14-d,SMA) is a neutral 54; the Bollinger Band indicator is neutral.

 

Breadth, measured as the % of stocks on the NYSE that advanced over the last 10-days, improved a bit to 45.6%. (More stocks have been going down over the last 2-weeks than have been going up.) This is bearish and the market internals I track remain negative.

 

The most worrisome indicator right now remains the large spread between the Cyclical Industrials (XLI-ETF) and the S&P 500.  XLI is underperforming the S&P 500 on every time frame I track. When investors are worried they sell cyclicals.

 

The chart looks ok now so I won’t be concerned about the negative indicators for the time being.

 

My longer-term indicator system remained neutral. I remain cautiously bullish.

 

MOMENTUM ANALYSIS:  

TODAY’S RANKING OF  15 ETFs (Ranked Daily)

The top ranked ETF receives 100%. The rest are then ranked based on their momentum relative to the leading ETF.  While momentum isn’t stock performance per se, momentum is closely related to stock performance. For example, over the 4-months from Oct thru mid-February 2016, the number 1 ranked Financials (XLF) outperformed the S&P 500 by nearly 20%. In 2017 Technology (XLK) was ranked in the top 3 Momentum Plays for 52% of all trading days in 2017 (if I counted correctly.) XLK was up 35% on the year while the S&P 500 was up 18%.

*For additional background on the ETF ranking system see NTSM Page at…

http://navigatethestockmarket.blogspot.com/p/exchange-traded-funds-etf-ranking.html

 

TODAY’S RANKING OF THE DOW 30 STOCKS (Ranked Daily)

The top ranked stock receives 100%. The rest are then ranked based on their momentum relative to the leading stock. (On 5 Apr 2018 I corrected a coding/graphing error that had consistently shown Nike incorrectly.)

*I rank the Dow 30 similarly to the ETF ranking system. For more details, see NTSM Page at…

https://navigatethestockmarket.blogspot.com/p/a-system-for-trading-dow-30-stocks-my_8.html

 

FRIDAY MARKET INTERNALS (NYSE DATA)

Market Internals remained Negative on the market.

Market Internals are a decent trend-following analysis of current market action but should not be used alone for short term trading. They are usually right, but they are often late.  They are most useful when they diverge from the Index.  In 2014, using these internals alone would have made a 9% return vs. 13% for the S&P 500 (in on Positive, out on Negative – no shorting).

 

 

18 Apr 2018 I increased stock investments from 35% to 50% based on the Intermediate/Long-Term Indicator that turned positive on the 17th. (It has since turned Neutral.) For me, fully invested is a balanced 50% stock portfolio. 50% is my minimum unless I am in full defense mode.

 

On 10 May 2018 I added stock positions to increase Stock investments to 58% based on more evidence that the correction is over. This is high for me given that we are late in this cycle (and as a retiree), but it indicates my bullishness after the correction. I’ll sell these new positions quickly if the market turns down.

 

INTERMEDIATE / LONG-TERM INDICATOR

Intermediate/Long-Term Indicator: Friday, the Price, Sentiment, VIX & Volume indicators were neutral. Overall this is a NEUTRAL indication.

Jobless Claims … Philadelphia Fed … Leading Economic Indicators (LEI) … Fair Trade; it Doesn’t Exist – But German Automakers Back Dropping Tariffs … Stock Market Analysis… ETF Trading … Dow 30 Ranking

JOBLESS CLAIMS (MarketWatch)

“The number of Americans losing their jobs fell for the fourth week in a row in mid-June, keeping the rate of layoffs near levels last seen in the early 1970s. Initial jobless claims declined by 3,000 to 218,000 in the seven days ended June 16, in line with the MarketWatch forecast.” Story at…

https://www.marketwatch.com/story/jobless-claims-drop-fourth-week-in-a-row-to-218000-2018-06-21

 

PHILADELPHIA FED (MarketsInsider)

“A report released by the Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia on Thursday showed a much bigger than expected slowdown in the pace of growth in regional manufacturing activity in the month of June. The Philly Fed said its index for current general activity slumped to 19.9 in June from 34.4 in May.” Story at…

http://markets.businessinsider.com/news/interestrates/philly-fed-index-indicates-notably-slower-growth-in-june-1027307755

My cmt: A number above zero indicates growth. Manufacturing in the region is still growing – just slower. 

 

LEI – June 21 (Conference Board)

“The Conference Board Leading Economic Index® (LEI) for the U.S. increased 0.2 percent in May to 109.5 (2016 = 100), following a 0.4 percent increase in April, and a 0.4 percent increase in March. “While May’s increase in the U.S. LEI was slower than in recent months, the improvements in a majority of its components offset the declines in leading indicators of labor markets and residential construction,” said Ataman Ozyildirim, Director of Business Cycles and Growth Research at The Conference Board. “The U.S. LEI still points to solid growth but the current trend, which is moderating, indicates that economic activity is not likely to accelerate.” Press release at…

https://www.conference-board.org/data/bcicountry.cfm?cid=1

 

GERMAN AUTO-MAKERS OFFER ZERO TARIFF (WSJ)

“Germany’s leading auto makers have thrown their support behind the abolition of all import tariffs for cars between the European Union and the U.S. in an effort to find a peaceful solution to the brewing trade war…That would mean scrapping the EU’s 10% tax on auto imports from the U.S. and other countries and the 2.5% duty on auto imports in the U.S. As a prerequisite, the Europeans want President Donald Trump’s threat of imposing a 25% border tax on European auto imports off the table.” Story at…

https://www.wsj.com/articles/germanys-largest-auto-makers-back-abolition-of-eu-u-s-car-import-tariffs-1529492027?ns=prod/accounts-wsj

My cmt: What the #$%^? So…the Germans have had a 10% tariff on US cars while the US has had a 2.5% tariff on German cars????? So much for fair trade! I have never been a big Trump supporter, but I understand and support his efforts to level the playing field with our trading partners. How are we doing with other questionable partners like the Chinese? They impose a 25% tariff on US cars. One wonders why the US would grant them “most favoured nation” status. We may not need America First, but we need America fair and even. As my wife says, “We are the big Santa Claus to the World.” Perhaps, but it shouldn’t apply to trade.

 

MARKET REPORT / ANALYSIS         

-Thursday the S&P 500 was down about 0.6% to 2750.

-VIX rose about 14% to 14.64. 

-The yield on the 10-year Treasury slipped to 2.895%.

 

The S&P 500 dropped to a point near the lower trend line. It was on a big day (statistically) that often indicates a turn-around point. About 60% of the time we’d expect an up-day tomorrow.  Any further significant declines will be cause for concern. We also need to see the indicators turn upward soon. Otherwise, further selling may be a sign of longer term weakness. On a positive note, the Index is 1.4% above its 50-dMA and a drop to that level is always possible.  

 

RSI is a neutral 56; the Bollinger Band indicator is neutral.

 

My daily sum of 17 Indicators declined slightly from -5 to -6, while the 10-day smoothed version dropped from +4 to -7. A number below zero shows most indicators are bearish.

 

Breadth, measured as the % of stocks on the NYSE that advanced over the last 10-days, dropped all the way down to 44.9%. (More stocks have been going down over the last 2-weeks than have been going up.) This is bearish and the market internals I track remain negative.

 

The most worrisome indicator right now is the large spread between the Cyclical Industrials (XLI-ETF) and the S&P 500.  XLI is underperforming the S&P 500 on every time frame I track. When investors are worried they sell cyclicals.

 

The best news is the chart; it doesn’t look bad now as long as the Index doesn’t drop much further.

 

My longer-term indicator system switched back to neutral. I remain cautiously bullish.

 

MOMENTUM ANALYSIS:  

TODAY’S RANKING OF  15 ETFs (Ranked Daily)

The top ranked ETF receives 100%. The rest are then ranked based on their momentum relative to the leading ETF.  While momentum isn’t stock performance per se, momentum is closely related to stock performance. For example, over the 4-months from Oct thru mid-February 2016, the number 1 ranked Financials (XLF) outperformed the S&P 500 by nearly 20%. In 2017 Technology (XLK) was ranked in the top 3 Momentum Plays for 52% of all trading days in 2017 (if I counted correctly.) XLK was up 35% on the year while the S&P 500 was up 18%.

*For additional background on the ETF ranking system see NTSM Page at…

http://navigatethestockmarket.blogspot.com/p/exchange-traded-funds-etf-ranking.html

 

TODAY’S RANKING OF THE DOW 30 STOCKS (Ranked Daily)

The top ranked stock receives 100%. The rest are then ranked based on their momentum relative to the leading stock. (On 5 Apr 2018 I corrected a coding/graphing error that had consistently shown Nike incorrectly.)

*I rank the Dow 30 similarly to the ETF ranking system. For more details, see NTSM Page at…

https://navigatethestockmarket.blogspot.com/p/a-system-for-trading-dow-30-stocks-my_8.html

 

THURSDAY MARKET INTERNALS (NYSE DATA)

Market Internals remained Negative on the market.

Market Internals are a decent trend-following analysis of current market action but should not be used alone for short term trading. They are usually right, but they are often late.  They are most useful when they diverge from the Index.  In 2014, using these internals alone would have made a 9% return vs. 13% for the S&P 500 (in on Positive, out on Negative – no shorting). 

 

 

18 Apr 2018 I increased stock investments from 35% to 50% based on the Intermediate/Long-Term Indicator that turned positive on the 17th. (It has since turned Neutral.) For me, fully invested is a balanced 50% stock portfolio. 50% is my minimum unless I am in full defense mode.

 

On 10 May 2018 I added stock positions to increase Stock investments to 58% based on more evidence that the correction is over. This is high for me given that we are late in this cycle (and as a retiree), but it indicates my bullishness after the correction. I’ll sell these new positions quickly if the market turns down.

 

INTERMEDIATE / LONG-TERM INDICATOR

Intermediate/Long-Term Indicator: Thursday, the Price indicator was positive; the Sentiment, VIX & Volume indicators were neutral. Overall this is a NEUTRAL indication.

Existing Home Sales … Crude Inventories … Stock Market Analysis… ETF Trading … Dow 30 Ranking

HOME SALES (Washington Post)

“U.S. existing home sales slipped 0.4 percent in May, as the prolonged shortage of properties on the market is deterring home-buying.” Story at…

https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/us-home-sales-fell-04-percent-in-may-amid-inventory-crunch/2018/06/20/b9fb101c-7492-11e8-bda1-18e53a448a14_story.html?utm_term=.0d013668faf3

 

CRUDE INVENTORIES (OilPrice.com)

“Crude oil prices remained relatively stable after the Energy Information Administration reported a draw of 5.9 million barrels in U.S. crude oil inventories for the week to June 15.” Story at…

https://oilprice.com/Energy/Crude-Oil/Oil-Inch-Higher-On-Strong-Crude-Draw.html

 

MARKET REPORT / ANALYSIS         

-Wednesday the S&P 500 was up about 0.2% to 2767.

-VIX dropped about 4% to 12.79. 

-The yield on the 10-year Treasury rose to 2.933%.

 

115 stocks made new-highs on the NYSE while only 38 stocks made new-lows.  That’s a nice switch from yesterday’s numbers.  New-high/new-low data is the aircraft carrier of indicators – it usually takes a long time to turn around. The turn back to a positive spread today is a nice sign.

 

My daily sum of 17 Indicators improved slightly from -6 to -5, while the 10-day smoothed version dropped from +14 to +4. A number above zero shows most indicators are bullish. The improvement on the day was small, but I'll take an optimistic stance and say the sum of indicators is Neutral.

 

Breadth, measured as the % of stocks on the NYSE that advanced over the last 10-days, has dropped to 47.1%. (More stocks have been going down over the last 2-weeks than have been going up.) This is generally bearish and the market internals I track remain negative.

 

RSI is an elevated (but neutral) 71; the Bollinger Band indicator is neutral.

 

My longer-term indicator system improved to bullish; I remain a bull.

 

MOMENTUM ANALYSIS:  

TODAY’S RANKING OF  15 ETFs (Ranked Daily)

The top ranked ETF receives 100%. The rest are then ranked based on their momentum relative to the leading ETF.  While momentum isn’t stock performance per se, momentum is closely related to stock performance. For example, over the 4-months from Oct thru mid-February 2016, the number 1 ranked Financials (XLF) outperformed the S&P 500 by nearly 20%. In 2017 Technology (XLK) was ranked in the top 3 Momentum Plays for 52% of all trading days in 2017 (if I counted correctly.) XLK was up 35% on the year while the S&P 500 was up 18%.

*For additional background on the ETF ranking system see NTSM Page at…

http://navigatethestockmarket.blogspot.com/p/exchange-traded-funds-etf-ranking.html

 

TODAY’S RANKING OF THE DOW 30 STOCKS (Ranked Daily)

The top ranked stock receives 100%. The rest are then ranked based on their momentum relative to the leading stock. (On 5 Apr 2018 I corrected a coding/graphing error that had consistently shown Nike incorrectly.)

*I rank the Dow 30 similarly to the ETF ranking system. For more details, see NTSM Page at…

https://navigatethestockmarket.blogspot.com/p/a-system-for-trading-dow-30-stocks-my_8.html

 

WEDNESDAY MARKET INTERNALS (NYSE DATA)

Market Internals remained Negative on the market.

Market Internals are a decent trend-following analysis of current market action but should not be used alone for short term trading. They are usually right, but they are often late.  They are most useful when they diverge from the Index.  In 2014, using these internals alone would have made a 9% return vs. 13% for the S&P 500 (in on Positive, out on Negative – no shorting).

 

 

18 Apr 2018 I increased stock investments from 35% to 50% based on the Intermediate/Long-Term Indicator that turned positive on the 17th. (It has since turned Neutral.) For me, fully invested is a balanced 50% stock portfolio. 50% is my minimum unless I am in full defense mode.

 

On 10 May 2018 I added stock positions to increase Stock investments to 58% based on more evidence that the correction is over. This is high for me given that we are late in this cycle (and as a retiree), but it indicates my bullishness after the correction. I’ll sell these new positions quickly if the market turns down.

 

INTERMEDIATE / LONG-TERM INDICATOR

Intermediate/Long-Term Indicator: Wednesday, the Price & VIX indicators were positive; the Sentiment & Volume indicators were neutral. Overall this is a BULLISH indication.

Housing Starts … Trade War … Stock Market Analysis … ETF Trading … Dow 30 Ranking

HOUSING (Reuters)

“U.S. homebuilding surged to near an 11-year high in May amid an acceleration in both single-family and multi-family home construction, but a second straight monthly drop in permits suggested housing market activity would remain moderate.” Story at…

https://www.reuters.com/article/us-usa-economy-housingstarts/us-housing-starts-jump-to-near-11-year-high-permits-fall-idUSKBN1JF1N9

 

TRADE WAR – WHERE ARE WE HEADED? (Real Investment Advice)

“With the market weakness yesterday [Monday], we are holding off adding to our equity “long positions” until we see where the market finds support. Currently, there is a cluster of support coalescing at the 100-dma. The 50-dma is set to cross back above the 100-dma this week, and the downtrend line from the March highs also resides at that juncture… we suspect the market will be sufficiently oversold enough for a reflexive bounce by the end of the month. Again...the most probable outcome currently remains a continued sideways and choppy market.” – Lance Roberts. Commentary at…

http://realinvestmentadvice.com/technically-speaking-the-drums-of-trade-war/

 

MARKET REPORT / ANALYSIS         

-Tuesday the S&P 500 was down about 0.4% to 2763.

-VIX was up about 8% to 13.35. 

-The yield on the 10-year Treasury slipped to 2.899%.

 

The S&P 500 dipped to its lower trend line (2740ish) this morning and bounced up from there. The day's “rally” continued for the rest of the day. Closing Tick (sum of last trades of the day) was a mildly bullish +39 and late-day, price-action was also mildly bullish. The markets may dip to the trendline again, or even test the 50-dMA (currently 2709), but so far there doesn’t seem to be any signs of panic over Trade Wars or other news, so I am cautiously bullish in the near term.

 

While S&P 500 closed at 3.9% above its 200-dMA, the NYSE Composite is only 0.2% above its 200-dMA. Perhaps the Comp is suggesting selling won’t last too much longer.  

 

My daily sum of 17 Indicators declined from -3 to -6, while the 10-day smoothed version dropped from +24 to +14. A number above zero shows most indicators are bullish, but the trend has been down and overall that's a bearish sign.

 

Breadth, measured as the % of stocks on the NYSE that advanced over the last 10-days, has dropped to 47.5%. (More stocks have been going down over the last 2-weeks than have been going up.) The market internals I track are now negative.

 

My longer-term indicator system dropped to neutral.

 

MOMENTUM ANALYSIS:  

TODAY’S RANKING OF  15 ETFs (Ranked Daily)

The top ranked ETF receives 100%. The rest are then ranked based on their momentum relative to the leading ETF.  While momentum isn’t stock performance per se, momentum is closely related to stock performance. For example, over the 4-months from Oct thru mid-February 2016, the number 1 ranked Financials (XLF) outperformed the S&P 500 by nearly 20%. In 2017 Technology (XLK) was ranked in the top 3 Momentum Plays for 52% of all trading days in 2017 (if I counted correctly.) XLK was up 35% on the year while the S&P 500 was up 18%.

*For additional background on the ETF ranking system see NTSM Page at…

http://navigatethestockmarket.blogspot.com/p/exchange-traded-funds-etf-ranking.html

 

TODAY’S RANKING OF THE DOW 30 STOCKS (Ranked Daily)

The top ranked stock receives 100%. The rest are then ranked based on their momentum relative to the leading stock. (On 5 Apr 2018 I corrected a coding/graphing error that had consistently shown Nike incorrectly.)

*I rank the Dow 30 similarly to the ETF ranking system. For more details, see NTSM Page at…

https://navigatethestockmarket.blogspot.com/p/a-system-for-trading-dow-30-stocks-my_8.html

 

TUESDAY MARKET INTERNALS (NYSE DATA)

Market Internals declined to Negative on the market.

Market Internals are a decent trend-following analysis of current market action but should not be used alone for short term trading. They are usually right, but they are often late.  They are most useful when they diverge from the Index.  In 2014, using these internals alone would have made a 9% return vs. 13% for the S&P 500 (in on Positive, out on Negative – no shorting).

 

 

18 Apr 2018 I increased stock investments from 35% to 50% based on the Intermediate/Long-Term Indicator that turned positive on the 17th. (It has since turned Neutral.) For me, fully invested is a balanced 50% stock portfolio. 50% is my minimum unless I am in full defense mode.

 

On 10 May 2018 I added stock positions to increase Stock investments to 58% based on more evidence that the correction is over. This is high for me given that we are late in this cycle (and as a retiree), but it indicates my bullishness after the correction. I’ll sell these new positions quickly if the market turns down.

 

INTERMEDIATE / LONG-TERM INDICATOR

Intermediate/Long-Term Indicator: Tuesday, the Price indicator was positive; the Sentiment, VIX & Volume indicators were neutral. Overall this is a NEUTRAL indication.

NAHB Housing Index … Stock Market Analysis… ETF Trading … Dow 30 Ranking

NAHB HOUSING INDEX (forexlive)

“The NAHB housing market index for June came in at 68 versus 70 expected. That was also lower than the 70 in May.” Story at…

https://www.forexlive.com/news/!/nahb-housing-market-index-for-june-vs-70-expected-20180618

 

MARKET REPORT / ANALYSIS         

-Monday the S&P 500 slipped about 0.2% to 2774.

-VIX was up about 3% to 12.31. 

-The yield on the 10-year Treasury slipped to 2.897%.

 

My daily sum of 17 Indicators declined slightly from -2 to -3, while the 10-day smoothed version dropped from +33 to +24. A number above zero shows most indicators are bullish. Overall not much change from last week, but as noted last week, a number of the indicators have stalled and appear to be rolling over to the downside.

 

Breadth, measured as the % of stocks on the NYSE that advanced over the last 10-days, has dropped below 50% and now sits at 49.1%. (More stocks have been going down over the last 2-weeks than have been going up.) The market internals I track would be negative except that advancing volume is still headed up.

 

RSI is surprisingly elevated at 71 (I was surprised that RSI was up today on a down day for the S&P 500). 80 is overbought. Smart Money is headed down. When we compared the Internals vs the S&P 500 price, price is too far ahead of Internals and is close to signaling a top. New-high/new-low data is generally bearish, but the graph of new-highs continues higher and that’s a bullish sign for the time being.

 

My longer-term indicator system remains bullish and I remain a bull. Short-term, the deterioration in indicators is worrisome. Indictors are still declining, but it's not yet time to panic.

 

MOMENTUM ANALYSIS:  

TODAY’S RANKING OF  15 ETFs (Ranked Daily)

The top ranked ETF receives 100%. The rest are then ranked based on their momentum relative to the leading ETF.  While momentum isn’t stock performance per se, momentum is closely related to stock performance. For example, over the 4-months from Oct thru mid-February 2016, the number 1 ranked Financials (XLF) outperformed the S&P 500 by nearly 20%. In 2017 Technology (XLK) was ranked in the top 3 Momentum Plays for 52% of all trading days in 2017 (if I counted correctly.) XLK was up 35% on the year while the S&P 500 was up 18%.

*For additional background on the ETF ranking system see NTSM Page at…

http://navigatethestockmarket.blogspot.com/p/exchange-traded-funds-etf-ranking.html

 

TODAY’S RANKING OF THE DOW 30 STOCKS (Ranked Daily)

The top ranked stock receives 100%. The rest are then ranked based on their momentum relative to the leading stock. (On 5 Apr 2018 I corrected a coding/graphing error that had consistently shown Nike incorrectly.)

*I rank the Dow 30 similarly to the ETF ranking system. For more details, see NTSM Page at…

https://navigatethestockmarket.blogspot.com/p/a-system-for-trading-dow-30-stocks-my_8.html

 

MONDAY MARKET INTERNALS (NYSE DATA)

Market Internals remained Neutral on the market.

Market Internals are a decent trend-following analysis of current market action but should not be used alone for short term trading. They are usually right, but they are often late.  They are most useful when they diverge from the Index.  In 2014, using these internals alone would have made a 9% return vs. 13% for the S&P 500 (in on Positive, out on Negative – no shorting). 

 

18 Apr 2018 I increased stock investments from 35% to 50% based on the Intermediate/Long-Term Indicator that turned positive on the 17th. (It has since turned Neutral.) For me, fully invested is a balanced 50% stock portfolio. 50% is my minimum unless I am in full defense mode.

 

On 10 May 2018 I added stock positions to increase Stock investments to 58% based on more evidence that the correction is over. This is high for me given that we are late in this cycle (and as a retiree), but it indicates my bullishness after the correction. I’ll sell these new positions quickly if the market turns down.

 

INTERMEDIATE / LONG-TERM INDICATOR

Intermediate/Long-Term Indicator: Monday, the Price & VIX indicators were positive; the Sentiment & Volume indicators were neutral. Overall this is a BULLISH indication.

Empire Manufacturing … Industrial Production … Consumer Sentiment … Stock Market Analysis… ETF Trading … Dow 30 Ranking

EMPIRE MANUFACTURING (MarketWatch)

“The Empire State manufacturing survey rose 4.9 points in June to a reading of 25, the highest since October, the New York Fed said Friday.” Story at…

https://www.marketwatch.com/story/empire-state-manufacturing-index-climbs-to-best-level-in-eight-months-in-june-2018-06-15

 

INDUSTRIAL PRODUCTION (MarketWatch)

"Industrial production fell in May for the first time in four months, but the drop-off was largely the result of a major fire at an auto-parts supplier for Ford F, -0.08%trucks instead any weakness in the U.S. economy.” Story at…

https://www.marketwatch.com/story/big-fire-at-auto-parts-supplier-drags-down-us-industrial-production-in-may-2018-06-15

 

CONSUMER SENTIMENT (CNBC)

“The index rose to its highest level since hitting 101.4 in March.” Story at…

https://www.cnbc.com/2018/06/15/the-university-of-michigan-early-june-consumer-sentiment-index.html

 

MARKET REPORT / ANALYSIS         

-Friday the S&P 500 slipped about 0.1% to 2780.

-VIX was dropped about 1% to 11.98. 

-The yield on the 10-year Treasury slipped to 2.920%.

 

My daily sum of 17 Indicators declined slightly from -1 to -2, while the 10-day smoothed version dropped from +39 to +33. A number above zero shows most indicators are bullish. Overall not much change from yesterday, but a number of the indicators have stalled and appear to be rolling over to the downside.

 

My longer-term indicator system remains bullish and I remain a bull. Short-term, the deterioration in indicators is worrisome and we’ll take a closer look at indicators next week.

 

MOMENTUM ANALYSIS:  

TODAY’S RANKING OF  15 ETFs (Ranked Daily)

The top ranked ETF receives 100%. The rest are then ranked based on their momentum relative to the leading ETF.  While momentum isn’t stock performance per se, momentum is closely related to stock performance. For example, over the 4-months from Oct thru mid-February 2016, the number 1 ranked Financials (XLF) outperformed the S&P 500 by nearly 20%. In 2017 Technology (XLK) was ranked in the top 3 Momentum Plays for 52% of all trading days in 2017 (if I counted correctly.) XLK was up 35% on the year while the S&P 500 was up 18%.

*For additional background on the ETF ranking system see NTSM Page at…

http://navigatethestockmarket.blogspot.com/p/exchange-traded-funds-etf-ranking.html

 

TODAY’S RANKING OF THE DOW 30 STOCKS (Ranked Daily)

The top ranked stock receives 100%. The rest are then ranked based on their momentum relative to the leading stock. (On 5 Apr 2018 I corrected a coding/graphing error that had consistently shown Nike incorrectly.)

*I rank the Dow 30 similarly to the ETF ranking system. For more details, see NTSM Page at…

https://navigatethestockmarket.blogspot.com/p/a-system-for-trading-dow-30-stocks-my_8.html

 

THURSDAY MARKET INTERNALS (NYSE DATA)

Market Internals remained Neutral on the market.

Market Internals are a decent trend-following analysis of current market action but should not be used alone for short term trading. They are usually right, but they are often late.  They are most useful when they diverge from the Index.  In 2014, using these internals alone would have made a 9% return vs. 13% for the S&P 500 (in on Positive, out on Negative – no shorting). 

 

18 Apr 2018 I increased stock investments from 35% to 50% based on the Intermediate/Long-Term Indicator that turned positive on the 17th. (It has since turned Neutral.) For me, fully invested is a balanced 50% stock portfolio. 50% is my minimum unless I am in full defense mode.

 

On 10 May 2018 I added stock positions to increase Stock investments to 58% based on more evidence that the correction is over. This is high for me given that we are late in this cycle (and as a retiree), but it indicates my bullishness after the correction. I’ll sell these new positions quickly if the market turns down.

 

INTERMEDIATE / LONG-TERM INDICATOR

Intermediate/Long-Term Indicator: Friday, the Price & VIX indicators were positive; the Sentiment & Volume indicators were neutral. Overall this is a BULLISH indication.