Jobless Claims ... Leading Economic Indicators ... Philadelphia FED Index ... Momentum Trading DOW Stocks & ETFs … Stock Market Analysis ...

 
“Trade what you see; not what you think.” – The Old Fool, Richard McCranie, trader extraordinaire.
 
CHRISTMAS QUIZ:  During which part of the day do the ships arrive? Answer at bottom of blog.
 
WAR IS COMING (GB NEWS)
“The Chinese President, who recently returned from a visit to San Francisco, is expected to have the capacity to annex the island nation [Taiwan] by 2027. However, foreign policy hawk Gordon Chang suggested an attempt to subjugate Taipei would result in an “all out” global conflict... “It appears that Chinese doctrine on the first day of a war with Taiwan will target Japan and the United States for various reasons.”...China’s military buildup, response to sanctions, stockpiling efforts, surveying of American nuclear weapons, purging of dissident officers and mobilising the civilian population showed Beijing is “preparing” for conflict.” Story at...
'War is coming!' Xi Jinping's Taiwan invasion plan includes chilling warning about US 'attack' (msn.com)
My cmt: It’s possible.  I’ve wondered whether investors are buying Intel due to the threat of war.  If China takes Taiwan where will chips be made?
"The Taiwan question is a matter of national sovereignty, territorial integrity and national unity. So this is something like a life-or-death question for China … there's no room for concession." - Former Chinese Ambassador to the U.S., Cui Tiankai.
 
“Unsurprisingly, the all-Democrat appointed Colorado Supreme Court has ruled against President Trump. Supporting a Soros-funded, left-wing group’s scheme to interfere in an election on behalf of Crooked Joe Biden by removing President Trump’s name from the ballot and eliminating the rights of Colorado voters to vote for the candidate of their choice.” – Trump Campaign spokesman Steven Cheung.
My cmt. Typical Trumper – rude, crude, and wrong.  The only hope for a Joe Biden second term is for Donald Trump to be the republican candidate. Polls show that he would get demolished by former Governor of South Carolina, Nikki Haley, so if this was a partisan decision, they would have ruled in Trump’s favor.
 
THE COLORADO RULING CHANGED MY MIND – TRUMP SHOULD BE KEPT OFF THE BALLOT (The Atlantic)
“When I review divided appellate-court decisions, I almost always read the dissenting opinions first. The habit formed back when I was a young law student and lawyer—and Federalist Society member—in the late 1980s, when I would pore (and, I confess, usually coo) over Justice Antonin Scalia’s latest dissents.
I came to adopt the practice not just for newsworthy rulings that I disagreed with, but for decisions I agreed with...dissents are also intellectually useful: If there’s a weakness in the majority’s argument, an able judge will expose it, sometimes brutally...
[The article concludes] ... The strongest argument for throwing Trump off the ballot is the weakness of the counterarguments.” - George T. Conway III, attorney and a contributor to “The Atlantic.” Story at...
https://www.theatlantic.com/ideas/archive/2023/12/dont-read-the-colorado-ruling-read-the-dissents/676920/
My cmt: This was a good article taking the side that Trump should not be on the ballot. To those who say that Trump was not found guilty of insurrection, the Constitution does not require a guilty verdict. Further, Mr. Conway points out that the trial lasted 5 days and allowed a fair adjudication of the case. I don’t have a strong opinion.  It seems that a case can be made either way.  The Supreme Court will decide and “Who knows?” is the best guess.
 
JOBLESS CLAIMS (AP News)
“The number of Americans applying for unemployment benefits rose slightly last week but still remained at historically low levels despite high interest rates intended to slow hiring and cool the economy. The Labor Department reported Thursday that jobless claims were up by 2,000 to 205,000 the week that ended Dec. 16.” Story at...
https://apnews.com/article/unemployment-benefits-economy-jobs-50517b44ab237e81376d9c5b3872309d
 
GDP (Washigton Examiner)
“Third-quarter GDP growth revised down to 4.9% annual rate.” Story at...
https://www.washingtonexaminer.com/policy/economy/third-quarter-gdp-growth-revised-down-to-4-9-annual-rate
 
PHILADELPHIA FED INDEX (Market Screener)
“Industrial activity in the northeastern USA contracted at a sharper-than-expected pace in December, according to a survey published Thursday by the Philadelphia Fed. The Philly Fed index came in at -10.5 this month...” Story at...
https://www.marketscreener.com/quote/index/DOW-JONES-INDUSTRIAL-4945/news/USA-further-deterioration-in-the-Philly-Fed-index-45617991/
 
LEADING ECONOMIC INDICATORS (Conference Board)
"’The US LEI continued declining in November, with stock prices making virtually the only positive contribution to the index in the month,’ said Justyna Zabinska-La Monica, Senior Manager, Business Cycle Indicators, at The Conference Board. ‘Housing and labor market indicators weakened in November, reflecting warning areas for the economy. The Leading Credit Index™ and manufacturing new orders were essentially unchanged, pointing to a lack of economic growth momentum in the near term. Despite the economy's ongoing resilience—as revealed by the US CEI—and December's improvement in consumer confidence, the US LEI suggests a downshift of economic activity ahead. As a result, The Conference Board forecasts a short and shallow recession in the first half of 2024.’" Press release at...
https://www.prnewswire.com/news-releases/the-conference-board-leading-economic-index-lei-for-the-us-fell-again-in-november-302021055.html
 
MARKET REPORT / ANALYSIS
-Thursday the S&P 500 rose about 1% to 4747.
-VIX dipped about 0.1% to 13.65.
-The yield on the 10-year Treasury rose to 3.892%.
 
PULLBACK DATA:
-Drop from Top: 1%. 25.4% max (on a closing basis).
-Trading Days since All-Time Top: 495-days. (The top was 3 January 2022.)
The S&P 500 is 9.6% ABOVE its 200-dMA and 6.4% ABOVE its 50-dMA.
*I won’t call the correction over until the S&P 500 makes a new-high; however, evidence suggests the major bear-market bottom of the 25% decline was in the 3600 area and we called a buy on 4 October 2022.
 
MY TRADING POSITIONS:
XLK – Technology ETF (holding since the October 2022 lows).
XLY - Consumer Discretionary ETF. (Holding since the October 2022 lows - I bought more XLY 8/21/23.)
 
INTC – Added 12/6/2023.
BA – Added 12/6/2023.
 
DWCPF - Dow Jones U.S. Completion Total Stock Market Index. – Added 12/7/2023. This is a large position in my retirement account betting on Small Caps.
 
TODAY’S COMMENT:
Yesterday there was a 90% down-volume day. Today, 90% of the volume was up-volume and the S&P 500 closed near the top of its daily range - panic selling followed by panic buying. If that pattern continues, I’ll be worried that a top is near or has already ocurred.
 
Both RSI and Bollinger Bands have cleared their overbought indications, but the S&P 500 remains too far ahead of breadth (number of issues advancing) on the NYSE.
 
While there were some bearish signs today, the Summary of Indicators (Friday Rundown indicators) was 23-bulls and 2-bears market action doesn’t appear (at this point) to be particularly concerning.
 
I predicted months ago that the S&P 500 would make a new high this year.  The Index is close, 1% to go. Come-on markets, don’t fail me now.
 
The daily spread of 20 Indicators (Bulls minus Bears) remained +10 (a positive number is bullish; negatives are bearish); the 10-day smoothed sum that smooths the daily fluctuations improved from +89 to +96. (The trend direction is more important than the actual number for the 10-day value.) These numbers sometimes change after I post the blog based on data that comes in late. Most of these 20 indicators are short-term so they tend to bounce around a lot.
 
LONG-TERM INDICATOR: The Long Term NTSM indicator remained BUY: PRICE, VOLUME & VIX are bullish; SENTIMENT is neutral. (One warning: The Long-Term Indicator is not a good top-indicator. It can signal BUY at a top.)
 
(The important major BUY in this indicator was on 21 October 2022, 7-days after the bear-market bottom. For my NTSM overall signal, I suggested that a short-term buying opportunity occurred on 27 September (based on improved market internals on the retest), although without market follow-thru, I was unwilling to call a buy; however, I did close shorts and increased stock holdings. I issued a Buy-Signal on 4 October, 6-days before the final bottom, based on stronger market action that confirmed the market internals signal. The NTSM sell-signal was issued 21 December, 9 sessions before the high of this recent bear market, based on the bearish “Friday Rundown” of indicators.)
 
BOTTOM LINE
I remain bullish.
 
ETF - MOMENTUM ANALYSIS:
TODAY’S RANKING OF 15 ETFs (Ranked Daily)
ETF ranking follows:

The top ranked ETF receives 100%. The rest are then ranked based on their momentum relative to the leading ETF.
*For additional background on the ETF ranking system see NTSM Page at…
http://navigatethestockmarket.blogspot.com/p/exchange-traded-funds-etf-ranking.html
 
DOW STOCKS - TODAY’S MOMENTUM RANKING OF THE DOW 30 STOCKS (Ranked Daily)
DOW 30 momentum ranking follows:

The top ranked Stock receives 100%. The rest are then ranked based on their momentum relative to the leading Stock.
For more details, see NTSM Page at…
https://navigatethestockmarket.blogspot.com/p/a-system-for-trading-dow-30-stocks-my_8.html
 
THURSDAY MARKET INTERNALS (NYSE DATA)

My basket of Market Internals remained BUY. (My basket of Market Internals is a decent trend-following analysis of current market action, but should not be used alone for short term trading. They are most useful when they diverge from the Index.) 
 

...My current invested position is about 65% stocks, including stock mutual funds and ETFs. I’m usually about 50% invested in stocks. I’m “over invested” now expecting new, all-time highs this year. That burns all the cash.  I have about 25% of the portfolio in bonds.
 
I trade about 15-20% of the total portfolio using the momentum-based analysis I provide here. When I see a definitive bottom, I add a lot more stocks to the portfolio using an S&P 500 ETF as I did back in October.
 
CHRISTMAS QUIZ: Ans. “I saw three ships come sailing in, on Christmas day on Christmas day. I saw three ships come sailing in, on Christmas Day in the morning.”
 

Consumer Confidence ... Home Sales ... Crude Oil Inventories ... Momentum Trading DOW Stocks & ETFs … Stock Market Analysis ...

 
“Trade what you see; not what you think.” – The Old Fool, Richard McCranie, trader extraordinaire.
 
“If the Arabs put down their weapons today, there would be no more violence. If the Jews put down their weapons today, there would be no more Israel.” - Golda Meir, a founder of the State of Israel (1948) and later its fourth prime minister (1969–74).
 
“Many of us have been exasperated by the antics of Just Stop Oil protesters. Now, I believe that these are well-meaning and committed to their cause and I am sure that they think that they are trying to save the planet in the best way they can think of – gain publicity, get people talking and influence politicians. But what would happen if we literally just stopped oil tomorrow and did without the natural resources on which the world, its economies and populations depend? The answer: most likely six billion people would die within a year.” - Neil Record. Story at...
What could happen if we just stopped oil? Six billion might die (msn.com)
 
EXPERT HIRED BY TRUMP SAYS THERE WAS  NO FRAUD (msn.com)
“During Block's recent appearance on CNN's 'OutFront', host Erin Burnett asked, ‘You were hired by team Trump to investigate voter fraud...Did you find the widespread fraud they wanted you to find?’
‘No. In my job looking for voter fraud for the campaign, we didn't find any– we didn't find enough fraud to have impacted the result of any election in any of the swing states that we took a look at.’" Story at...
'Can't wait until he repeats this in court': Trump mocked as expert hired by ex-POTUS to prove voter fraud says he found all claims to be false (msn.com)
 
CONSUMER CONFIDENCE (Conference Board)
“The Conference Board Consumer Confidence Index® increased in December to 110.7...“December’s increase in consumer confidence reflected more positive ratings of current business conditions and job availability, as well as less pessimistic views of business, labor market, and personal income prospects over the next six months,” said Dana Peterson, Chief Economist at The Conference Board. “While December’s renewed optimism was seen across all ages and household income levels, the gains were largest among householders aged 35-54 and households with income levels of $125,000 and above. December’s write-in responses revealed the top issue affecting consumers remains rising prices...” Press release at...
https://www.conference-board.org/topics/consumer-confidence
 
EXISTING HOME SALES (YahooFinance)
“Homebuying activity picked up slightly in November, but the housing market is still pretty much stalled as home prices continue to climb higher. Total existing home sales inched up 0.8% in November...” Sory at...
https://finance.yahoo.com/news/existing-home-sales-rise-slightly-in-november-as-mortgage-rates-fall-162911578.html
 
CRUDE OIL INVENTORIES (EIA)
“U.S. commercial crude oil inventories (excluding those in the Strategic Petroleum Reserve) increased by 2.9 million barrels from the previous week. At 443.7 million barrels, U.S. crude oil inventories are about 1% below the five year average for this time of year.” Report at...
https://ir.eia.gov/wpsr/wpsrsummary.pdf
 
MARKET REPORT / ANALYSIS
-Wednesday the S&P 500 fell about 1.5% to 4698.
-VIX rose about 9% to 13.69.
-The yield on the 10-year Treasury dipped to 3.855%.
 
PULLBACK DATA:
-Drop from Top: 2%. 25.4% max (on a closing basis).
-Trading Days since All-Time Top: 494-days. (The top was 3 January 2022.)
The S&P 500 is 8.6% ABOVE its 200-dMA and 5.5% ABOVE its 50-dMA.
*I won’t call the correction over until the S&P 500 makes a new-high; however, evidence suggests the major bear-market bottom of the 25% decline was in the 3600 area and we called a buy on 4 October 2022.
 
MY TRADING POSITIONS:
XLK – Technology ETF (holding since the October 2022 lows).
XLY - Consumer Discretionary ETF. (Holding since the October 2022 lows - I bought more XLY 8/21/23.)
 
INTC – Added 12/6/2023.
BA – Added 12/6/2023.
 
DWCPF - Dow Jones U.S. Completion Total Stock Market Index. – Added 12/7/2023. This is a large position in my retirement account betting on Small Caps.
 
TODAY’S COMMENT:
We’ve been expecting a pullback of some kind for a  couple of days. We got it today.  It may be just a start of a bigger move, or not. Regardless, I don’t expect much more than a 3%-5% retreat – just a typical short-term dip.
 
Today, 90% of the volume on the NYSE was down-volume. The S&P 500 also closed near its low so it is a concern. This indicator was developed by Lowry Research. They stated: “A single, isolated 90% Downside Day does not, by itself, have any long term trend implications, since they often occur at the end of short term corrections. But, because they show that investors are in a mood to panic, even an isolated 90% Downside Day should be viewed as an important warning that more could follow.” – Lowry Research.
 
It was also a Bearish Outside Reversal Day. According to Investopedia: “This demonstrates that the bulls had control over the market before the bears took the reins in a meaningful way, signaling a shift in the overall trend.”
Perhaps, but like all indicators, it is not always correct, so unless we see other indicators confirming the bearishness I won’t take any action.
 
Wednesday was a statistically significant down-day. That just means that the price-volume move exceeded my statistical parameters. Statistics show that a statistically-significant, down-day is followed by an up-day about 60% of the time. 
 
Tops almost always occur on Statistically-significant, up-days, so this indicator is not warning of a significant top.
 
Both RSI and Bollinger Bands cleared their overbought indications, but the S&P 500 remains too far ahead of breadth (number of issues advancing) on the NYSE.
 
While there were some bearish signs today, the Summary of Indicators (Friday Rundown indicators) was 23-bulls and 4-bears so today’s big down-day doesn’t appear (at this point) to be particularly concerning.
 
I predicted months ago that the S&P 500 would make a new high this year.  The Index is close, 2% to go. Come-on markets, don’t fail me now.
 
The daily spread of 20 Indicators (Bulls minus Bears) declined from +11 to +10 (a positive number is bullish; negatives are bearish-14 is a very high number); the 10-day smoothed sum that smooths the daily fluctuations improved from +85 to +89. (The trend direction is more important than the actual number for the 10-day value.) These numbers sometimes change after I post the blog based on data that comes in late. Most of these 20 indicators are short-term so they tend to bounce around a lot.
 
LONG-TERM INDICATOR: The Long Term NTSM indicator remained BUY: PRICE, VOLUME & VIX are bullish; SENTIMENT is neutral. (One warning: The Long Term Indicator is not a good top indicator.)
 
(The important major BUY in this indicator was on 21 October 2022, 7-days after the bear-market bottom. For my NTSM overall signal, I suggested that a short-term buying opportunity occurred on 27 September (based on improved market internals on the retest), although without market follow-thru, I was unwilling to call a buy; however, I did close shorts and increased stock holdings. I issued a Buy-Signal on 4 October, 6-days before the final bottom, based on stronger market action that confirmed the market internals signal. The NTSM sell-signal was issued 21 December, 9 sessions before the high of this recent bear market, based on the bearish “Friday Rundown” of indicators.)
 
BOTTOM LINE
I remain bullish.
 
ETF - MOMENTUM ANALYSIS:
TODAY’S RANKING OF 15 ETFs (Ranked Daily)
ETF ranking follows:

The top ranked ETF receives 100%. The rest are then ranked based on their momentum relative to the leading ETF.
*For additional background on the ETF ranking system see NTSM Page at…
http://navigatethestockmarket.blogspot.com/p/exchange-traded-funds-etf-ranking.html
 
DOW STOCKS - TODAY’S MOMENTUM RANKING OF THE DOW 30 STOCKS (Ranked Daily)
DOW 30 momentum ranking follows:

The top ranked Stock receives 100%. The rest are then ranked based on their momentum relative to the leading Stock.
For more details, see NTSM Page at…
https://navigatethestockmarket.blogspot.com/p/a-system-for-trading-dow-30-stocks-my_8.html
 
WEDNESDAY MARKET INTERNALS (NYSE DATA)

My basket of Market Internals remained BUY. (My basket of Market Internals is a decent trend-following analysis of current market action, but should not be used alone for short term trading. They are most useful when they diverge from the Index.) 
 

...My current invested position is about 65% stocks, including stock mutual funds and ETFs. I’m usually about 50% invested in stocks. I’m “over invested” now expecting new, all-time highs this year. That burns all the cash.  I have about 25% of the portfolio in bonds.
 
I trade about 15-20% of the total portfolio using the momentum-based analysis I provide here. When I see a definitive bottom, I add a lot more stocks to the portfolio using an S&P 500 ETF as I did back in October.
 
CHRISTMAS QUIZ: Ans. “I saw three ships come sailing in, on Christmas day on Christmas day. I saw three ships come sailing in, on Christmas Day in the morning.”

Housing Starts ... Permits ... Momentum Trading DOW Stocks & ETFs … Stock Market Analysis ...

“Trade what you see; not what you think.” – The Old Fool, Richard McCranie, trader extraordinaire.
 
CHRISTMAS QUIZ:  According to a carol, how many ships come sailing in on Christmas Day?
 
“As temperatures go up, we’re likely to see more people die from heat. That’s absolutely true. You hear this all the time. But what is underreported is the fact that nine times as many people die from cold. ... As temperatures go up, you’re going to see fewer people die from cold. Over the last 20 years, because of temperature rises, we have seen about 116,000 more people die from heat. But 283,000 fewer people die from cold... Only reporting on the minuses, and only emphasizing worst-case outcomes, is not a good way to inform people.” - Bjorn Lomborg, President, Copenhagen Consensus Center. Former director of the Environmental Assessment Institute in Copenhagen.
 
“You might have been shocked to see American college students demonstrate in support of Hamas. But we should be careful not to overreact and expect the U.S. to degenerate into such hatred... Many people assume that the ideology of the young is a predictor of the future. But students grow up. They start out as pacifists until they realize that other people want to kill them. They start out as socialists until they realize that socialism brings economic ruin. In the real world, they learn through experience and exposure to other viewpoints that many policies that sound nice lead to terrible consequences.” – Dr. Michael Segal. He is a neurologist and neuroscientist. From WSJ Opinion pages.
 
HOUSING STARTS / PERMITS (Yahoo Finance)
“US new-home construction unexpectedly surged in November to a six-month high, benefiting from a dearth of existing houses on the market and suggesting the crunch in residential real estate is easing. Residential starts increased 14.8% last month...” Story at...
https://finance.yahoo.com/news/us-housing-starts-unexpectedly-rise-135013183.html
 
MARKET REPORT / ANALYSIS
-Tuesday the S&P 500 rose about 0.6% to 4768.
-VIX dipped about 0.2% to 12.53.
-The yield on the 10-year Treasury dipped slightly to 3.931%.
 
PULLBACK DATA:
-Drop from Top: 0.6%. 25.4% max (on a closing basis).
-Trading Days since All-Time Top: 493-days. (The top was 3 January 2022.)
The S&P 500 is 10.3% ABOVE its 200-dMA and 7.3% ABOVE its 50-dMA.
*I won’t call the correction over until the S&P 500 makes a new-high; however, evidence suggests the major bear-market bottom of the 25% decline was in the 3600 area and we called a buy on 4 October 2022.
 
MY TRADING POSITIONS:
XLK – Technology ETF (holding since the October 2022 lows).
XLY - Consumer Discretionary ETF. (Holding since the October 2022 lows - I bought more XLY 8/21/23.)
 
INTC – Added 12/6/2023.
BA – Added 12/6/2023.
 
DWCPF - Dow Jones U.S. Completion Total Stock Market Index. – Added 12/7/2023. This is a large position in my retirement account betting on Small Caps.
 
TODAY’S COMMENT:
Again, both RSI and Bollinger Bands remain overbought along with a couple of other overbought indications. When both Bollinger Bands and RSI are overbought, there is usually a retreat of some kind.  We might be looking at a 3-5% pullback, but there is nothing to say that this rally can’t continue longer.  Markets can stay overbought for longer than one might imagine
 
Bollinger Bands signal 2 standard deviations above the average. Statistically, that is a level that is exceeded only 5% of the time. It is showing that the Index is stretched higher than normal.
 
RSI, Relative Strength Index, measures the size of up-moves vs. all-moves on a 14-day moving average basis and presents the result as a percentile. For example; if the RSI is 85, it means that the size of up-moves is in the 85th percentile when compared to all moves over the 14-day period.  If ALL moves had been up, RSI would be 100 – a definite short term sell indicator. For my purposes, 30 is oversold (suggesting a turn-around to the upside) and 80 is overbought. If the up-moves and down-moves are equal in size over the 14-day period, RSI would be 50. Today’s RSI is 85.
 
I predicted months ago that the S&P 500 would make a new high this year.  The Index is close, 0.6% to go. I might be right, yet.
 
The daily spread of 20 Indicators (Bulls minus Bears) improved from +5 to +11 (a positive number is bullish; negatives are bearish-14 is a very high number); the 10-day smoothed sum that smooths the daily fluctuations improved from +81 to +85. (The trend direction is more important than the actual number for the 10-day value.) These numbers sometimes change after I post the blog based on data that comes in late. Most of these 20 indicators are short-term so they tend to bounce around a lot.
 
LONG-TERM INDICATOR: The Long Term NTSM indicator remained BUY: PRICE, VOLUME & VIX are bullish; SENTIMENT is neutral.
 
(The important major BUY in this indicator was on 21 October 2022, 7-days after the bear-market bottom. For my NTSM overall signal, I suggested that a short-term buying opportunity occurred on 27 September (based on improved market internals on the retest), although without market follow-thru, I was unwilling to call a buy; however, I did close shorts and increased stock holdings. I issued a Buy-Signal on 4 October, 6-days before the final bottom, based on stronger market action that confirmed the market internals signal. The NTSM sell-signal was issued 21 December, 9 sessions before the high of this recent bear market, based on the bearish “Friday Rundown” of indicators.)
 
BOTTOM LINE
I remain bullish.
 
ETF - MOMENTUM ANALYSIS:
TODAY’S RANKING OF 15 ETFs (Ranked Daily)
ETF ranking follows:

The top ranked ETF receives 100%. The rest are then ranked based on their momentum relative to the leading ETF.
*For additional background on the ETF ranking system see NTSM Page at…
http://navigatethestockmarket.blogspot.com/p/exchange-traded-funds-etf-ranking.html
 
DOW STOCKS - TODAY’S MOMENTUM RANKING OF THE DOW 30 STOCKS (Ranked Daily)
DOW 30 momentum ranking follows:

The top ranked Stock receives 100%. The rest are then ranked based on their momentum relative to the leading Stock.
For more details, see NTSM Page at…
https://navigatethestockmarket.blogspot.com/p/a-system-for-trading-dow-30-stocks-my_8.html
 
TUESDAY MARKET INTERNALS (NYSE DATA)

My basket of Market Internals remained BUY. (My basket of Market Internals is a decent trend-following analysis of current market action, but should not be used alone for short term trading. They are most useful when they diverge from the Index.) 
 

...My current invested position is about 75% stocks, including stock mutual funds and ETFs. I’m usually about 50% invested in stocks. I’m “over invested” now expecting new, all-time highs this year. That burns all the cash.  I have about 25% of the portfolio in bonds.
 
I trade about 15-20% of the total portfolio using the momentum-based analysis I provide here. When I see a definitive bottom, I add a lot more stocks to the portfolio using an S&P 500 ETF as I did back in October.
 
CHRISTMAS QUIZ: Ans. I saw three ships come sailing in, on Christmas day on Christmas day. I saw three ships come sailing in, on Christmas Day in the morning.
 

Momentum Trading DOW Stocks & ETFs … Stock Market Analysis ...

 
“Trade what you see; not what you think.” – The Old Fool, Richard McCranie, trader extraordinaire.

 

“The climate summit concluded without significant concessions from China, and demand for EVs dropped sharply.” —Michael Ramirez. Political commentary at...
https://michaelpramirez.com/index.html
 
CHRISTMAS QUIZ: In which carol do we learn that Jesus was not a crybaby?
 Answer at end of post.
 
GOLDMAN BULLISH (msn.com)
“The Federal Reserve’s pivot last week to an easier monetary policy made many investors more bullish toward stocks. You can count Goldman Sachs among them. It has raised its year-end 2024 target for the S&P to 5,100 from 4,700.” Story at... 
Goldman sharply shifts stocks forecast after Fed's policy pivot (msn.com)
 
MARKET REPORT / ANALYSIS
-Monday the S&P 500 rose about 0.5% to 4741. (Only 1.2% below its all-time high.)
-VIX rose about 2% to 12.56.
-The yield on the 10-year Treasury rose to 3.935%.
 
PULLBACK DATA:
-Drop from Top: 1.2%. 25.4% max (on a closing basis).
-Trading Days since All-Time Top: 492-days. (The top was 3 January 2022.)
The S&P 500 is 9.7% ABOVE its 200-dMA and 6.8% ABOVE its 50-dMA.
*I won’t call the correction over until the S&P 500 makes a new-high; however, evidence suggests the major bear-market bottom of the 25% decline was in the 3600 area and we called a buy on 4 October 2022.
 
MY TRADING POSITIONS:
SSO – 2x S&P 500 ETF. SOLD 12/18/2023.
QLD – SOLD 12/18/2023.
 
XLK – Technology ETF (holding since the October 2022 lows).
XLY - Consumer Discretionary ETF. (Holding since the October 2022 lows - I bought more XLY 8/21/23.)
 
INTC – Added 12/6/2023.
BA – Added 12/6/2023.
 
DWCPF - Dow Jones U.S. Completion Total Stock Market Index. – Added 12/7/2023. This is a large position in my retirement account betting on Small Caps.
 
TODAY’S COMMENT:
Again we see that there are enough Top indicators to suggest a retreat of some kind.  Both RSI and Bollinger Bands remain overbought along with a couple of other overbought indications. I decided to take profits in my leveraged, long positions in SSO and QLD very late in the day.  Leveraged ETFs are best sold when markets are on the upswing.  They can lose $ fast if markets retreat.
 
I predicted months ago that the S&P 500 would make a new high this year.  The Index is close, 1.2% to go.
 
The daily spread of 20 Indicators (Bulls minus Bears) declined +13 to +7 (a positive number is bullish; negatives are bearish-14 is a very high number); the 10-day smoothed sum that smooths the daily fluctuations improved from +79 to +83. (The trend direction is more important than the actual number for the 10-day value.) These numbers sometimes change after I post the blog based on data that comes in late. Most of these 20 indicators are short-term so they tend to bounce around a lot.
 
LONG-TERM INDICATOR: The Long Term NTSM indicator remained BUY: PRICE, VOLUME & VIX are bullish; SENTIMENT is neutral.
 
(The important major BUY in this indicator was on 21 October 2022, 7-days after the bear-market bottom. For my NTSM overall signal, I suggested that a short-term buying opportunity occurred on 27 September (based on improved market internals on the retest), although without market follow-thru, I was unwilling to call a buy; however, I did close shorts and increased stock holdings. I issued a Buy-Signal on 4 October, 6-days before the final bottom, based on stronger market action that confirmed the market internals signal. The NTSM sell-signal was issued 21 December, 9 sessions before the high of this recent bear market, based on the bearish “Friday Rundown” of indicators.)
 
BOTTOM LINE
I remain bullish.
 
ETF - MOMENTUM ANALYSIS:
TODAY’S RANKING OF 15 ETFs (Ranked Daily)
ETF ranking follows:

The top ranked ETF receives 100%. The rest are then ranked based on their momentum relative to the leading ETF.
*For additional background on the ETF ranking system see NTSM Page at…
http://navigatethestockmarket.blogspot.com/p/exchange-traded-funds-etf-ranking.html

DOW STOCKS - TODAY’S MOMENTUM RANKING OF THE DOW 30 STOCKS (Ranked Daily)
DOW 30 momentum ranking follows:

The top ranked Stock receives 100%. The rest are then ranked based on their momentum relative to the leading Stock.
For more details, see NTSM Page at…
https://navigatethestockmarket.blogspot.com/p/a-system-for-trading-dow-30-stocks-my_8.html

MONDAY MARKET INTERNALS (NYSE DATA)

My basket of Market Internals remained BUY. (My basket of Market Internals is a decent trend-following analysis of current market action, but should not be used alone for short term trading. They are most useful when they diverge from the Index.) 
 

...My current invested position is about 65% stocks, including stock mutual funds and ETFs. I’m usually about 50% invested in stocks. I’m “over invested” now expecting new, all-time highs this year. 
 
I trade about 15-20% of the total portfolio using the momentum-based analysis I provide here. When I see a definitive bottom, I add a lot more stocks to the portfolio using an S&P 500 ETF as I did back in October.
 
CHRISTMAS QUIZ: In which carol do we learn that Jesus was not a cry baby? Ans.
“Away in a Manger” contains these words:
“The cattle are lowing
the poor baby wakes.
But little Lord Jesus,
No crying He makes.”

Empire State Manufacturing... Industrial Production ... Composite PMI ... Momentum Trading DOW Stocks & ETFs … Stock Market Analysis ...

 
“Trade what you see; not what you think.” – The Old Fool, Richard McCranie, trader extraordinaire.
 
EMPIRE STATE MANUFACTURING (New York Fed)
“Business activity declined in New York State, according to firms responding to the December 2023 Empire State Manufacturing Survey. The headline general business conditions index fell twenty-four points to -14.5, continuing to oscillate around -8.6—the average observed over the past year. New orders fell for a third consecutive month, and shipments also declined. Unfilled orders continued to shrink significantly, and delivery times shortened at the fastest pace since well before the pandemic. Inventories moved lower. Employment declined modestly, and the average workweek edged down. The pace of input price increases moderated, while the pace of selling price increases held steady. After reporting a steep drop in the outlook last month, firms were a little more positive in December, but their optimism remained quite subdued.” Report at...
https://www.newyorkfed.org/survey/empire/empiresurvey_overview
 
INDUSTRIAL PRODUCTION (Floor Daily)
“In November, industrial production increased 0.2%, and manufacturing output rose 0.3%, reports the Federal Reserve. The increase in manufacturing output was more than accounted for by a 7.1% bounceback in motor vehicles and parts production following the resolution of strikes at several major automakers.” Story at...
https://www.floordaily.net/flooring-news/industrial-production-rose-02-in-november
 
S&P GLOBAL COMPOSITE PMI (S&P Global)
“US businesses signaled a slightly stronger close to 2023 as activity rose at the fastest pace for five months in December. The quicker upturn in output was supported by the sharpest increase in new orders since July. Nonetheless, rates of expansion remained historically subdued as firms continued to highlight challenges stimulating demand. Growth was driven by the service sector, as manufacturers registered a further downturn in new orders and a renewed drop in production.” Press release at...
https://www.pmi.spglobal.com/Public/Home/PressRelease/435137fa5a754c79988b22a4378ce135
 
MARKET REPORT / ANALYSIS
-Friday the S&P 500 was little changed at 4719. (Still only 1.6% below its all-time high.)
-VIX dipped about 2% to 12.28.
-The yield on the 10-year Treasury dipped to 3.915%.
 
PULLBACK DATA:
-Drop from Top: 1.6%. 25.4% max (on a closing basis).
-Trading Days since All-Time Top: 491-days. (The top was 3 January 2022.)
The S&P 500 is 9.3% ABOVE its 200-dMA and 6.6% ABOVE its 50-dMA.
*I won’t call the correction over until the S&P 500 makes a new-high; however, evidence suggests the major bear-market bottom (25% decline) was in the 3600 area and we called a buy on 4 October 2022.
 
MY TRADING POSITIONS:
XLK – Technology ETF (holding since the October 2022 lows).
XLY - Consumer Discretionary ETF. (Holding since the October 2022 lows - I bought more XLY 8/21/23.)
 
I took profits and then reestablished positions as follows:
SSO – 2x S&P 500 ETF. Added 8/24/23.
QLD – Added 8/30/23.
 
INTC – Added 12/6/2023.
BA – Added 12/6/2023.
 
DWCPF - Dow Jones U.S. Completion Total Stock Market Index. – Added 12/7/2023. This is a large position in my retirement account betting on Small Caps.
 
TODAY’S COMMENT:
There are enough Top indicators to suggest a retreat of some kind.  Both RSI and Bollinger Bands are overbought along with a couple of other overbought indications. I’m not making any portfolio changes at this time.  There are enough bull signs that if there is a pullback, it should be small.  That could always change so I’ll watch indicators. I predicted months ago that the S&P 500 would make a new high this year.  The Index is close, 1.6% to go. It may be close.
 
We look at a summary of indicators on Friday. (These indicators tend to be both long-term and short-term, so they are different than the 20 that I report on daily.) The weekly rundown of indicators remained very bullish this week: now 5-bear and 23-bull.
 
BULL SIGNS
-There was a Follow-Thru Day 13 December that cancels any Distribution Days.
-The smoothed advancing volume on the NYSE is rising.
-The 10-dMA percentage of issues advancing on the NYSE (Breadth) is above 50%.
-The 50-dMA percentage of issues advancing on the NYSE (Breadth) is above 50%
-MACD of the percentage of issues advancing on the NYSE (breadth) made a bullish crossover 12 October.
-Smoothed Buying Pressure minus Selling Pressure.
-MACD of S&P 500 price made a bullish crossover 12 Dec.
-My Money Trend indicator is rising.
-Long-term new-high/new-low data.
-Short-term new-high/new-low data.
-Slope of the 40-dMA of New-highs is rising.
-The graph of the 100-day Count (the 100-day sum of up-days).
-McClellan Oscillator.
-The Smart Money (late-day action).
-On average, the size of up-moves has been larger than the size of down-moves over the last month.
-VIX indicator.
-There was a high up-volume day on 13 December. In addition, there were back-to-back, high up-volume days (80%+) on the NYSE 13 & 14 Dec.
-XLI-ETF (Cyclical Industrials) vs the S&P 500. The 40-dMA of spread is turning up – call it bullish.
-S&P 500 spread vs. Utilities (XLU-ETF) is turning bullish.
-The 5-day EMA is above the 10-day EMA, so short-term momentum is bullish.
-The 5-10-20 Timer System is BUY.
-There was a Zweig Breadth Thrust 3 November. That’s a rare, very-bullish sign, that will remain bullish until the McClellan Oscillator turns negative.
-63% of the 15-ETFs that I track have been up over the last 10-days. (45-55% is neutral.)
 
NEUTRAL
-Overbought/Oversold Index (Advance/Decline Ratio).
-Sentiment.
-Bollinger Band Squeeze 28 April - expired.
-The 50-dMA percentage of issues advancing on the NYSE (Breadth) has not been below 50%, for more than 3 days in a row.
-27 November there was a Bearish Outside Reversal Day, but since the McClellan Oscillator is bullish and low volumes on the prior day may have screwed this indicator, I’ll call this one neutral.
-There have been 13 up-days over the last 20 sessions.
-There have been 6 up-days over the last 10 sessions.
-There was a New-high/New-low spread reversal on 4 October (based on std deviation of spread). - Expired
-The S&P 500 is 9.3% above its 200-dMA. (Bear indicator is 12% above the 200-day.)
-The short-term, 10-day EMA, Fosback Hi-Low Logic Index.
-The long-term, 50-dEMA, Fosback Hi-Low Logic Index.
-There were Hindenburg Omen signals 11 & 12 Sept 2023 – expired. The McClellan Oscillator turned positive.
-The Calm-before-the-Storm/Panic Indicator flashed a top warning signal 15 Sept., but it may well have been a bottom signal. - Expired
-2.8% of all issues traded on the NYSE made new, 52-week highs when the S&P 500 made a new all-time-high, 3 January 2022. (There is no bullish signal for this indicator.) This indicated that the advance was too narrow and a correction was likely to be >10%. It proved correct, but is now Expired.
 
BEAR SIGNS
-There have been 5 Statistically-Significant days (big moves in price-volume) in the last 15-days.
-Bollinger Bands.
-RSI.
-The 100-dMA percentage of issues advancing on the NYSE (Breadth) is below 50%
-Issues advancing on the NYSE (Breadth) compared to the S&P 500.
 
On Monday’s update of the Friday summary of indicators (20 December 2021), 9 days before the top of the current 25% correction, there were 21 bear-signs and zero bull-signs. Now there are 5 bear-signs and 23-Bull. Last week, there were 5 bear-sign and 17 bull-signs.
 
The daily spread of 20 Indicators (Bulls minus Bears) declined +14 to +13 (a positive number is bullish; negatives are bearish-14 is a very high number); the 10-day smoothed sum that smooths the daily fluctuations improved from +71 to +79. (The trend direction is more important than the actual number for the 10-day value.) These numbers sometimes change after I post the blog based on data that comes in late. Most of these 20 indicators are short-term so they tend to bounce around a lot.
 
LONG-TERM INDICATOR: The Long Term NTSM indicator remained BUY: PRICE, VOLUME & VIX are bullish; SENTIMENT is neutral.
 
(The important major BUY in this indicator was on 21 October 2022, 7-days after the bear-market bottom. For my NTSM overall signal, I suggested that a short-term buying opportunity occurred on 27 September (based on improved market internals on the retest), although without market follow-thru, I was unwilling to call a buy; however, I did close shorts and increased stock holdings. I issued a Buy-Signal on 4 October, 6-days before the final bottom, based on stronger market action that confirmed the market internals signal. The NTSM sell-signal was issued 21 December, 9 sessions before the high of this recent bear market, based on the bearish “Friday Rundown” of indicators.)
 
BOTTOM LINE
I remain bullish.
 
ETF - MOMENTUM ANALYSIS:
TODAY’S RANKING OF 15 ETFs (Ranked Daily)
ETF ranking follows:

The top ranked ETF receives 100%. The rest are then ranked based on their momentum relative to the leading ETF.
*For additional background on the ETF ranking system see NTSM Page at…
http://navigatethestockmarket.blogspot.com/p/exchange-traded-funds-etf-ranking.html
 
DOW STOCKS - TODAY’S MOMENTUM RANKING OF THE DOW 30 STOCKS (Ranked Daily)
DOW 30 momentum ranking follows:

The top ranked Stock receives 100%. The rest are then ranked based on their momentum relative to the leading Stock.
For more details, see NTSM Page at…
https://navigatethestockmarket.blogspot.com/p/a-system-for-trading-dow-30-stocks-my_8.html
 
FRIDAY MARKET INTERNALS (NYSE DATA)

My basket of Market Internals remained BUY. (My basket of Market Internals is a decent trend-following analysis of current market action, but should not be used alone for short term trading. They are most useful when they diverge from the Index.) 
 

...My current invested position is about 75% stocks, including stock mutual funds and ETFs. I’m usually about 50% invested in stocks. I’m “over invested” now expecting new, all-time highs this year. That burns all the cash.  I have about 25% of the portfolio in bonds.
 
I trade about 15-20% of the total portfolio using the momentum-based analysis I provide here. When I see a definitive bottom, I add a lot more stocks to the portfolio using an S&P 500 ETF as I did back in October.
 

 

Voter Fraud? ... Jobless Claims ... Retail Sales ... Momentum Trading DOW Stocks & ETFs … Stock Market Analysis ...

 
CHRISTMAS QUIZ: Who are Hans Gruber and Franz Gruber? Answer at end of post.
 
“Trade what you see; not what you think.” – The Old Fool, Richard McCranie, trader extraordinaire.
 
“Look, Trump’s not a conservative...He’s a populist, authoritarian narcissist. So historically speaking, all of his tendencies are basically where narcissism takes him, which is whatever makes him popular, makes him feel good at any given moment… He doesn’t think in classical liberal-conservative terms. He thinks in an authoritarian way. And he’s been able to get a big chunk of the Republican base to follow him because he’s the culture warrior. And so I think Adam and Liz stepped out of the flow and called it out and, you know, paid for it. Paid for it with their careers...
...And there has to be some line, some principle that is so important to you that you’re just not going to cross so that when you’re brushing your teeth in the morning, look yourself in the mirror. You like what you see. I think Adam [Kinziger] and Liz [Cheney] are brushing their teeth, liking what they see... I think there’s a lot of people who already regret not getting him [Trump] out of out of the way [in the second impeachment] when they could have. So I think history will be kind to those people who saw what was happening and called it out, even though it was at the expense of their personal well being.” – Paul Ryan, Former Republican Speaker of the House.
 
POPE FRANCIS LECTURES ISRAEL (WSJ)
“Catholic theology has shaped the Judeo-Christian “just war” theory that midwifed the modern laws of war. If the pope believes there is a certain level of civilian casualties in Gaza that is per se impermissible, he is fundamentally wrong. That view, common though it is, conflicts with key just-war precepts that demand careful balancing of competing imperatives... just war’s principal role is to protect the innocent to the extent possible, a task that pacifism can’t accomplish.
Just-war precepts, as incorporated into the traditional laws of war, have two distinct components. The first, jus ad bellum, comprises the rules governing when force may be rightly used... The second component, jus in bello, encompasses the rules governing how force may be lawfully used, including at whom it may be directed... The laws of war used to play no favorites. Since World War II, however, humanitarian organizations, led by the International Committee of the Red Cross, have sought to provide special privileges for national liberation movements, an imprecise term that could If the laws of war were rewritten to preclude law-abiding powers like Israel and the U.S. from defending themselves against lawless combatants like Hamas, Hezbollah and Iran, lawlessness would inevitably prevail.” - David B. Rivkin served at the Justice Department and the White House Counsel’s Office in the Reagan and George H.W. Bush administrations and Peter Berkowitz is a senior fellow at Stanford’s Hoover Institution. He served as director of the U.S. State Department’s policy planning staff, 2019-21. Commentary from WSJ at...
https://www.wsj.com/articles/the-primitive-pacifism-of-pope-francis-lecture-to-israel-augustine-just-war-fa9c66ba
 
HEARTLAND POLL CLAIMS VOTER FRAUD WAS WIDESPREAD DURING 2020 (Yahoo Finance)
“A new poll by The Heartland Institute and Rasmussen Reports found one-in-five voters who cast mail-in ballots during the 2020 presidential election admit to participating in at least one kind of voter fraud.” – Story at...
https://finance.yahoo.com/news/heartland-rasmussen-poll-one-five-161100197.html
My cmt: First of all, we need to always question the source of information.  Immediately we see that the Heartland Institute is best known for its support of the tobacco industry. For more than a decade, the Heartland Institute claimed that smoking did not cause health problems.  Hmmm...doesn’t seem too reputable to me.  When I looked at some of the questions in the poll – They’re suspiciously worded and some of the results seem impossible. For example: “During the 2020 election, did you fill out a ballot, in part or in full, on behalf of a friend or family member, such as a spouse or child?” 21% of respondents said Yes. There’s nothing wrong with that activity and it is allowed in most states as long as the person who filled out the ballot didn’t forge a signature.
 
Yahoo also reported that “17% of mail-in voters said they voted “in a state where you were no longer a permanent resident.” This is extraordinarily high. It implies that 17% of mail in voters moved and that seems bogus; but since a lot of people did move during the pandemic, it’s possible that that many moved due to Covid. But the question doesn’t ask whether they voted twice; so while this might be a technical violation, it does not suggest that the election results were changed by these absentee voters. The queston really is, “Did 17% of voters vote twice?” The poll doesn’t answer that question.
 
The Heritage Foundation maintains a voter fraud database and I have previously reported cases where voters voted in more than one state. For example from the database: “Carol Hannah, was registered to vote in Mohave County, Arizona, and Adams County, Colorado, and was convicted of voter fraud for voting in both states during the 2010 election. Hannah's double voting was detected by the Interstate Voter Registration Crosscheck Program, a system in which Arizona shares voter data with at least 20 other states. She was convicted and sentenced to three years' supervised probation and $1,000 in fines.” Voter fraud is a criminal offense. So far there is no evidence that fraud changed the outcome of the 2020 Presidential  election.
 
The Yahoo article concludes with the statement that “Taken together, the results of these survey questions appear to show that voter fraud was widespread in the 2020 election, especially among those who cast mail-in ballots.”
 
I’d say that what the article shows is that the author of this article is not very good at critical thinking and is more interested in getting views than providing worthwhile information.
 
JOBLESS CLAIMS (AP News)
“The number of Americans filing for jobless benefits fell last week as the labor market continues to thrive despite high interest rates and elevated costs. Applications for unemployment benefits fell by 19,000 to 202,000 for the week ending Dec. 9...” Story at...
https://apnews.com/article/unemployment-benefits-jobless-claims-layoffs-labor-eb84bdb7303c9a816f3c45f47f069880
 
RETAIL SALES (Yahoo Finance)
“November retail sales posted surprise growth on Thursday, underscoring how the US consumer remains in a better position than many have feared. Retail sales grew 0.3% in November...” Story at...
https://finance.yahoo.com/news/november-retail-sales-surprise-wall-street-133538943.html
My cmt: Retails sales were 4.1% on a year-over-year basis.
 
MARKET REPORT / ANALYSIS
-Thursday the S&P 500 rose about 0.3% to 4720. (Only 1.6% below its all-time high.)
-VIX rose about 2% to 12.48.
-The yield on the 10-year Treasury dipped to 3.921%. (It’s been a while since it was below 4%.)
 
PULLBACK DATA:
-Drop from Top: 1.6%. 25.4% max (on a closing basis).
-Trading Days since All-Time Top: 490-days. (The top was 3 January 2022.)
The S&P 500 is 9.4% ABOVE its 200-dMA and 6.8% ABOVE its 50-dMA.
*I won’t call the correction over until the S&P 500 makes a new-high; however, evidence suggests the major bear-market bottom (25% decline) was in the 3600 area and we called a buy on 4 October 2022.
 
MY TRADING POSITIONS:
XLK – Technology ETF (holding since the October 2022 lows).
XLY - Consumer Discretionary ETF. (Holding since the October 2022 lows - I bought more XLY 8/21/23.)
 
I took profits and then reestablished positions as follows:
SSO – 2x S&P 500 ETF. Added 8/24/23.
QLD – Added 8/30/23.
 
INTC – Added 12/6/2023.
BA – Added 12/6/2023.
 
DWCPF - Dow Jones U.S. Completion Total Stock Market Index. – Added 12/7/2023. This is a large position in my retirement account betting on Small Caps.
 
TODAY’S COMMENT:
I took a half-position in Intel since it seemed to be in consolidation and it was the #1 momentum stock in the Dow.  I figured I could buy more later at a lower price.  Since I made the purchase, a little more than a week ago, Intel is up more than 8%. So much for timing! The question is, buy more now or continue waiting?
 
The market is overbought on several measures. The Overbought/oversold Index is overbought and it is a short-term measure suggesting a dip of a few days, if that long.  Bollinger Bands remain overbought. The S&P 500 is too far ahead of breadth, another overbought sign. RSI is a whisker from overbought. While we see these negative signs, markets are in buy-mode due to the recent Fed pivot in language, if not actions.
 
Yesterday, I pointed out that “...based on standard deviation analysis of daily changes, the market’s daily moves have been too consistent.  When this statistical signal warns, the markets usually experience a top within a month.” When I put final volume numbers in last night, this indicator reversed to a neutral position. Good.  That’s one less bear sign to worry about.
 
Thursday, there was >80% up-volume on the NYSE. Total volume was up too, about 60% above the monthly average. This may be due to ongoing buyer’s panic or a symptom of options expiration tomorrow.
 
Yesterday, I wondered yesterday what the Traders on the CNBC show “Half Time Report” would say after the Fed shift in language. Today, they were bullish to exhuberent on the market, altough I’d say they were skeptical that large cap tech will continue to lead. In general they were suggesting trimming large cap tech to reasonable portfolio size, not selling it.
 
To answer the Intel question, I’ll wait a bit longer before filling the other half-position
 
The daily spread of 20 Indicators (Bulls minus Bears) remained +14 (a positive number is bullish; negatives are bearish-14 is a very high number); the 10-day smoothed sum that smooths the daily fluctuations improved from +56 to +71. (The trend direction is more important than the actual number for the 10-day value.) These numbers sometimes change after I post the blog based on data that comes in late. Most of these 20 indicators are short-term so they tend to bounce around a lot.
 
LONG-TERM INDICATOR: The Long Term NTSM indicator remained BUY: PRICE, VOLUME & VIX are bullish; SENTIMENT is neutral.
 
(The important major BUY in this indicator was on 21 October 2022, 7-days after the bear-market bottom. For my NTSM overall signal, I suggested that a short-term buying opportunity occurred on 27 September (based on improved market internals on the retest), although without market follow-thru, I was unwilling to call a buy; however, I did close shorts and increased stock holdings. I issued a Buy-Signal on 4 October, 6-days before the final bottom, based on stronger market action that confirmed the market internals signal. The NTSM sell-signal was issued 21 December, 9 sessions before the high of this recent bear market, based on the bearish “Friday Rundown” of indicators.)
 
BOTTOM LINE
I remain bullish.
 
ETF - MOMENTUM ANALYSIS:
TODAY’S RANKING OF 15 ETFs (Ranked Daily)
ETF ranking follows:

The top ranked ETF receives 100%. The rest are then ranked based on their momentum relative to the leading ETF.
*For additional background on the ETF ranking system see NTSM Page at…
http://navigatethestockmarket.blogspot.com/p/exchange-traded-funds-etf-ranking.html
 
DOW STOCKS - TODAY’S MOMENTUM RANKING OF THE DOW 30 STOCKS (Ranked Daily)
DOW 30 momentum ranking follows:

The top ranked Stock receives 100%. The rest are then ranked based on their momentum relative to the leading Stock.
For more details, see NTSM Page at…
https://navigatethestockmarket.blogspot.com/p/a-system-for-trading-dow-30-stocks-my_8.html
 
THURSDAY MARKET INTERNALS (NYSE DATA)

My basket of Market Internals remained BUY. (My basket of Market Internals is a decent trend-following analysis of current market action, but should not be used alone for short term trading. They are most useful when they diverge from the Index.) 
 

...My current invested position is about 75% stocks, including stock mutual funds and ETFs. I’m usually about 50% invested in stocks. I’m “over invested” now expecting new, all-time highs this year. That burns all the cash.  I have about 25% of the portfolio in bonds.
 
I trade about 15-20% of the total portfolio using the momentum-based analysis I provide here. When I see a definitive bottom, I add a lot more stocks to the portfolio using an S&P 500 ETF as I did back in October of 2022.
 
Who are Hans Gruber and Franz Gruber? Answer: Hans Gruber was the fictional terrorist who took over the Nakatomi Tower in the Movie “Die Hard.” Franz Gruber wrote the melody to “Silent Night” in 1818.