Voter Fraud? ... Jobless Claims ... Retail Sales ... Momentum Trading DOW Stocks & ETFs … Stock Market Analysis ...
CHRISTMAS QUIZ: Who are Hans Gruber and Franz Gruber?
Answer at end of post.
“Trade what you see; not what you think.” – The Old Fool,
Richard McCranie, trader extraordinaire.
“Look, Trump’s not a conservative...He’s a populist,
authoritarian narcissist. So historically speaking, all of his tendencies are
basically where narcissism takes him, which is whatever makes him popular,
makes him feel good at any given moment… He doesn’t think in classical
liberal-conservative terms. He thinks in an authoritarian way. And he’s been
able to get a big chunk of the Republican base to follow him because he’s the
culture warrior. And so I think Adam and Liz stepped out of the flow and called
it out and, you know, paid for it. Paid for it with their careers...
...And there has to be some line, some principle that is
so important to you that you’re just not going to cross so that when you’re
brushing your teeth in the morning, look yourself in the mirror. You like what
you see. I think Adam [Kinziger] and Liz [Cheney] are brushing their teeth,
liking what they see... I think there’s a lot of people who already regret not
getting him [Trump] out of out of the way [in the second impeachment] when they
could have. So I think history will be kind to those people who saw what was
happening and called it out, even though it was at the expense of their
personal well being.” – Paul Ryan, Former Republican Speaker of the House.
POPE FRANCIS LECTURES ISRAEL (WSJ)
“Catholic theology has shaped the Judeo-Christian “just
war” theory that midwifed the modern laws of war. If the pope believes there is
a certain level of civilian casualties in Gaza that is per se impermissible, he
is fundamentally wrong. That view, common though it is, conflicts with key
just-war precepts that demand careful balancing of competing imperatives...
just war’s principal role is to protect the innocent to the extent possible, a
task that pacifism can’t accomplish.
Just-war precepts, as incorporated into the traditional
laws of war, have two distinct components. The first, jus ad bellum, comprises
the rules governing when force may be rightly used... The
second component, jus in bello, encompasses the rules
governing how force
may be lawfully used, including at whom it may be directed... The laws of war
used to play no favorites. Since World War II, however, humanitarian
organizations, led by the International Committee of the Red Cross, have sought
to provide special privileges for national liberation movements, an imprecise
term that could If the laws of war were rewritten to preclude law-abiding
powers like Israel and the U.S. from defending themselves against lawless
combatants like Hamas, Hezbollah and Iran, lawlessness would inevitably
prevail.” - David B. Rivkin served at the Justice Department and the White House
Counsel’s Office in the Reagan and George H.W. Bush administrations and Peter
Berkowitz is a senior
fellow at Stanford’s Hoover Institution. He served as director of the U.S.
State Department’s policy planning staff, 2019-21. Commentary from WSJ at...
https://www.wsj.com/articles/the-primitive-pacifism-of-pope-francis-lecture-to-israel-augustine-just-war-fa9c66ba
HEARTLAND POLL CLAIMS VOTER FRAUD WAS WIDESPREAD DURING
2020 (Yahoo Finance)
“A new poll by The Heartland Institute and Rasmussen Reports found
one-in-five voters who cast mail-in ballots during the 2020 presidential
election admit to participating in at least one kind of voter fraud.” – Story
at...
https://finance.yahoo.com/news/heartland-rasmussen-poll-one-five-161100197.html
My cmt: First of all, we need to always question the
source of information. Immediately we
see that the Heartland Institute is best known for its support of the tobacco
industry. For more than a decade, the Heartland Institute claimed that smoking
did not cause health problems. Hmmm...doesn’t
seem too reputable to me. When I looked
at some of the questions in the poll – They’re suspiciously worded and some of
the results seem impossible. For example: “During the 2020 election, did you
fill out a ballot, in part or in full, on behalf of a friend or family member,
such as a spouse or child?” 21% of respondents said Yes. There’s nothing wrong
with that activity and it is allowed in most states as long as the person who filled
out the ballot didn’t forge a signature.
Yahoo also reported that “17% of mail-in voters said they
voted “in a state where you were no longer a permanent resident.” This is
extraordinarily high. It implies that 17% of mail in voters moved and that seems
bogus; but since a lot of people did move during the pandemic, it’s possible
that that many moved due to Covid. But the question doesn’t ask whether they
voted twice; so while this might be a technical violation, it does not suggest
that the election results were changed by these absentee voters. The queston
really is, “Did 17% of voters vote twice?” The poll doesn’t answer that
question.
The Heritage Foundation maintains a voter fraud database
and I have previously reported cases where voters voted in more than one state.
For example from the database: “Carol Hannah, was registered to vote in Mohave
County, Arizona, and Adams County, Colorado, and was convicted of voter fraud
for voting in both states during the 2010 election. Hannah's double voting was
detected by the Interstate Voter Registration Crosscheck Program, a system in
which Arizona shares voter data with at least 20 other states. She was
convicted and sentenced to three years' supervised probation and $1,000 in
fines.” Voter fraud is a criminal offense. So far there is no evidence that
fraud changed the outcome of the 2020 Presidential election.
The Yahoo article concludes with the statement that
“Taken together, the results of these survey questions appear to show that
voter fraud was widespread in the 2020 election, especially among those who
cast mail-in ballots.”
I’d say that what the article shows is that the author of
this article is not very good at critical thinking and is more interested in
getting views than providing worthwhile information.
JOBLESS CLAIMS (AP News)
“The number of Americans filing for jobless benefits fell
last week as the labor market continues to thrive despite high interest rates
and elevated costs. Applications for unemployment benefits fell by 19,000 to
202,000 for the week ending Dec. 9...” Story at...
https://apnews.com/article/unemployment-benefits-jobless-claims-layoffs-labor-eb84bdb7303c9a816f3c45f47f069880
RETAIL SALES (Yahoo Finance)
“November retail sales posted surprise growth on
Thursday, underscoring how the US consumer remains
in a better position than many have feared. Retail sales grew 0.3% in November...”
Story at...
https://finance.yahoo.com/news/november-retail-sales-surprise-wall-street-133538943.html
My cmt: Retails sales were 4.1% on a year-over-year
basis.
MARKET REPORT / ANALYSIS
-Thursday the S&P 500 rose about 0.3% to 4720. (Only
1.6% below its all-time high.)
-VIX rose about 2% to 12.48.
-The yield on the 10-year Treasury dipped to 3.921%. (It’s
been a while since it was below 4%.)
PULLBACK DATA:
-Drop from Top: 1.6%. 25.4% max (on a closing basis).
-Trading Days since All-Time Top: 490-days. (The top was
3 January 2022.)
The S&P 500 is 9.4% ABOVE its 200-dMA and 6.8% ABOVE
its 50-dMA.
*I won’t call the correction over until the S&P 500
makes a new-high; however, evidence suggests the major bear-market bottom (25%
decline) was in the 3600 area and we called a buy on 4 October 2022.
MY TRADING POSITIONS:
XLK – Technology ETF (holding since the October 2022
lows).
XLY - Consumer Discretionary ETF. (Holding since the
October 2022 lows - I bought more XLY 8/21/23.)
I took profits and then reestablished positions as
follows:
SSO – 2x S&P 500 ETF. Added 8/24/23.
QLD – Added 8/30/23.
INTC – Added 12/6/2023.
BA – Added 12/6/2023.
DWCPF - Dow Jones U.S. Completion Total Stock Market
Index. – Added 12/7/2023. This is a large position in my retirement account
betting on Small Caps.
TODAY’S COMMENT:
I took a half-position in
Intel since it seemed to be in consolidation and it was the #1 momentum stock
in the Dow. I figured I could buy more
later at a lower price. Since I made the
purchase, a little more than a week ago, Intel is up more than 8%. So much for
timing! The question is, buy more now or continue waiting?
The market is overbought
on several measures. The Overbought/oversold Index is overbought and it is a short-term
measure suggesting a dip of a few days, if that long. Bollinger Bands remain overbought. The
S&P 500 is too far ahead of breadth, another overbought sign. RSI is a
whisker from overbought. While we see these negative signs, markets are in buy-mode
due to the recent Fed pivot in language, if not actions.
Yesterday, I pointed out
that “...based on standard deviation analysis of daily changes, the market’s
daily moves have been too consistent.
When this statistical signal warns, the markets usually experience a top
within a month.” When I put final volume numbers in last night, this indicator
reversed to a neutral position. Good.
That’s one less bear sign to worry about.
Thursday, there was >80%
up-volume on the NYSE. Total volume was up too, about 60% above the monthly
average. This may be due to ongoing buyer’s panic or a symptom of options
expiration tomorrow.
Yesterday, I wondered
yesterday what the Traders on the CNBC show “Half Time Report” would say after
the Fed shift in language. Today, they were bullish to exhuberent on the
market, altough I’d say they were skeptical that large cap tech will continue
to lead. In general they were suggesting trimming large cap tech to reasonable
portfolio size, not selling it.
To answer the Intel
question, I’ll wait a bit longer before filling the other half-position
The daily spread of 20 Indicators (Bulls minus Bears) remained
+14 (a positive number is bullish; negatives are bearish-14 is a very high
number); the 10-day smoothed sum that smooths the daily fluctuations improved
from +56 to +71. (The trend direction is more important than the actual number
for the 10-day value.) These numbers sometimes change after I post the blog
based on data that comes in late. Most of these 20 indicators are short-term so
they tend to bounce around a lot.
LONG-TERM INDICATOR: The Long Term NTSM indicator
remained BUY: PRICE, VOLUME & VIX are bullish; SENTIMENT is neutral.
(The important major BUY in this indicator was on 21
October 2022, 7-days after the bear-market bottom. For my NTSM overall signal,
I suggested that a short-term buying opportunity occurred on 27 September
(based on improved market internals on the retest), although without market
follow-thru, I was unwilling to call a buy; however, I did close shorts and
increased stock holdings. I issued a Buy-Signal on 4 October, 6-days before the
final bottom, based on stronger market action that confirmed the market internals
signal. The NTSM sell-signal was issued 21 December, 9 sessions before the high
of this recent bear market, based on the bearish “Friday Rundown” of
indicators.)
BOTTOM LINE
I remain bullish.
ETF - MOMENTUM ANALYSIS:
TODAY’S RANKING OF 15 ETFs (Ranked Daily)
ETF ranking follows:
The top ranked ETF receives
100%. The rest are then ranked based on their momentum relative to the leading
ETF.
*For additional background on
the ETF ranking system see NTSM Page at…
http://navigatethestockmarket.blogspot.com/p/exchange-traded-funds-etf-ranking.html
DOW STOCKS - TODAY’S MOMENTUM RANKING
OF THE DOW 30 STOCKS (Ranked Daily)
DOW 30 momentum ranking
follows:
The top ranked Stock receives
100%. The rest are then ranked based on their momentum relative to the leading Stock.
For more details, see NTSM
Page at…
https://navigatethestockmarket.blogspot.com/p/a-system-for-trading-dow-30-stocks-my_8.html
THURSDAY MARKET INTERNALS
(NYSE DATA)
My basket of Market Internals remained BUY. (My basket of Market
Internals is a decent trend-following analysis of current market action, but
should not be used alone for short term trading. They are most useful when they
diverge from the Index.)
...My current invested
position is about 75% stocks, including stock mutual funds and ETFs. I’m
usually about 50% invested in stocks. I’m “over invested” now expecting new,
all-time highs this year. That burns all the cash. I have about 25% of the portfolio in bonds.
I trade about 15-20% of the
total portfolio using the momentum-based analysis I provide here. When I see a
definitive bottom, I add a lot more stocks to the portfolio using an S&P
500 ETF as I did back in October of 2022.
Who are Hans Gruber and Franz Gruber? Answer: Hans Gruber
was the fictional terrorist who took over the Nakatomi Tower in the Movie “Die
Hard.” Franz Gruber wrote the melody to “Silent Night” in 1818.
