Cautiously optimistic on stocks

  

The NTSM system dropped to Neutral (Hold) on the slight down-day today, mostly because the VIX indicator came down some to neutral.  Other indicators went up so it was a mixed bag.  It is not unusual for the NTSM analysis to drop to a neutral after a Buy recommendation so we shouldn’t read anything too negative into today’s market.

We started this period of confused market action on 22 Feb with the S&P 500 about 15% above its 200-day moving average. As of today’s close, we are 10% above the 200-dMA so this sideways market-action has helped clear the air some. 

I continue to worry that we’re not getting away from the 1330-1350 area and that puts us at risk for another retreat. With that in mind, and the Buy signal we had on 20 April, I remain 50% invested in stocks.