Hmmm…still not a Buy yet

I track statistically significant moves in the S&P 500.  Those are moves that exceed 2/3 of all moves over a given period in size and volume. In other words, they are the bigger moves up or down.  We expect to have a statistically significant move every 3-days or so.  For example from 16 Feb until 16 Mar there were 6-statistically significant moves over 20-days. 

Now here is an odd fact.  Since 16 March, there have been no statistically significant days.  That is a 13-day period.  This sort of market action (smaller moves in price and volume) tends to happen at the highs.  Does this portend further down moves ahead?  Perhaps, but I really don’t know.  I think one reason for the lack of volatility is that even the professional traders are confused by this market.   

I have been trying to convince myself to Buy even though the NTSM analysis has not yet called a Buy.  I haven’t been able to do it.  Fundamentally, I think the market is due to head up, but since there seems to be a lot of doubt, I will wait for some clarification.

The Navigate the Stock Market analysis is still HOLD and shows little change from yesterday. 

 I am still conservatively positioned with only 30% invested in stocks.