The
Investment Company Institute reported yesterday that Long term US mutual funds
experienced $375-million in inflows for the week ending 23 March so Mom & Pop investor (whoever
they are) are starting to come back…again.
The
ICI data is good news. Here’s some from
the other side. CNNMoney reported, “Of
the 16 economists surveyed by CNNMoney, all but two have reduced their first
quarter economic growth predictions within the last month. Eleven have cut
their expectations for the entire year.” Predictions were for a growth rate of 3.3% in
the first three months of this year. But now, those predictions are only 2.7%. Robert Reich economist
and former Labor Secretary in the Clinton Administration wrote on his blog
recently, “Why aren't Americans being told the truth about the economy? We're
heading in the direction of a double dip -- but you'd never know it if you
listened to the upbeat messages coming out of Wall Street and Washington.”
Be vigilant….
SUMMARY
OF NTSM INDICATORS:
As
of today’s close, our 4-areas of market analysis present the following picture:
SENTIMENT: Sell. %-bulls
indicator is 66% as of tonight. As I
said yesterday, when 2 out of every 3-people think it is time to buy, it is
really time to sell. The last 2-times
sentiment hit 66% we had pullbacks of 8% and 15% in 2010. The 2-times before that resulted in 6%
pullbacks in 2009.
PRICE:
Neutral. The Price analysis indicator
has been meandering around is now firmly in neutral territory. The up moves just haven’t been very big.
VOLUME:
Buy. More volume has been going to the upside..
VIX: Neutral.
Our VIX indicator is Hold.
SUMMARY:
The overall Navigate the Stock Market analysis is NEUTRAL today, and that makes
13-days with HOLD as our overall outcome. (See the page How to Use the NTSM System).
The NTMS analysis gave its first SELL signal of this cycle on 22 Feb 2011at S&P 1315.
As a result of that SELL signal, I am still conservatively positioned with only 30% invested in stocks.
