Tuesday, February 26, 2013

Consumer Confidence Up; But Down

CONSUMER CONFIDENCE (dShort.com)
“The Latest Conference Board Consumer Confidence Index was released this morning based on data collected through February 14. The 69.6 reading was well above the consensus estimate of 62.0 ... But in context of this indicator's history, the consumer remains in a recessionary mindset." - Doug Short, Advisor Perspectives


Full story at...
http://advisorperspectives.com/dshort/updates/Conference-Board-Consumer-Confidence-Index.php

CONSUMERS ON CRASH COURSE (CNBC)
Consumers are clipping coupons at a rate not seen since before the 2007 recession, and that's a troubling sign, according to Coupons.com CEO Steven Boal... This pattern is almost identical to the one that played out right before the last major economic downturn...
"The index tends to run in a range," he explained. "In September, October, November in 2007, it popped out of its range for the first time... And, for the first time since then, we are seeing a tripping out of the range," said Boal, a former Wall Street executive."  Full story at...
http://www.cnbc.com/id/100485313
 
FAST MONEY TEAM SAYS BUY (CNBC)
With the markets dipping in the last several trading sessions, the "Fast Money" team was in agreement that strong fundamentals and healthy market dynamics will push the market higher, urging investors to look at pullbacks as buying opportunities.
http://www.cnbc.com/id/100492196
 
I almost started tracking a "Fast Money" index because when the regular hosts are ALL bullish; it's usually time to sell.

MARKET RECAP and CORRECTION THOUGHTS
Tuesday, the S&P 500 finished up 0.6% to 1,497 (rounded).  VIX was down 11%, to 16.87. 

Market internals are leaning toward the correction scenario, so it looks like correction to me.  On the other hand, another indicator hints the S&P 500 will move up a bit higher before turning down...we’ll see.

NTSM
Tuesday, the NTSM analysis remained HOLD at the close.

MY INVESTED POSITION
Based on a BUY signal 7 of 9-days, and more importantly, consecutive closes above the prior high of 1466, I moved into the stock market at 1471 on the S&P 500 on 14 January.  I am currently invested in a range of near 50% invested in stocks.