Jobs, Unemployment and the Employment Situation Survey

JOBS REPORT
BLS Press Release: “Total nonfarm payroll employment increased by 157,000 in January, and the unemployment rate was essentially unchanged at 7.9 percent, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today.  Retail trade, construction, health care, and wholesale trade added jobs over the month.”

JOBS REPORT – CLOSER LOOK from dShort.com, Advisor Perspectives…
“Today's nonfarm number is lower than the briefing.com consensus, which was for 193K new nonfarm jobs, and the unemployment rate is higher than the 7.7% expectation…There was, however, some positive news in the 2012 annual revisions to the Establishment Survey Data. We saw significant upward revisions for the last three months of the year.”  Full analysis from…

http://advisorperspectives.com/dshort/updates/Unemployment-and-the-Market.php

MORE JOBS REPORT – AN EVEN CLOSER LOOK

(THE LAST HURRAH FOR JOBS) from Mish Shedlock, Global Economic Analysis
“The establishment survey reported a gain of 157,000 jobs this month.  However, for the third consecutive month, the household survey is much weaker than the headline number. The household survey shows a gain of a mere 17,000 jobs. Last month the household survey gained only 28,000 jobs. The unemployment rate rose to 7.9%...As measured by the household survey (the basis for the reported unemployment number) the number of unemployed rose by 126,000…

…For the third month in a row, the underlying numbers were weak. The revisions to the population statistics support some of the drop in the unemployment rate, but those adjustments are in the past.

The recent divergence between the household survey and the payroll survey will close. The question is which way. Given business hiring plans, Obamacare adjustments, and the increase in payroll taxes that will take 2% of consumer spending away from those who need it most, I expect this is the last hurrah for jobs.” – Mish Shedlock, Global Economic Analysis
See the full commentary  at…

http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com/

HELP WANTED INDEX POINTING TO EMPLOYMENT SLOWDOWN? (lance Roberts at Streettalk Live)

“The Conference Board publishes a monthly "help wanted" index which tracks the number of Total Online Help Wanted Ads and the Number of New Ads…The recent stagnation in payrolls is consistent with the stagnation of the demand by employers issuing "help wanted" ads. Historically, such stagnation has been indicative of peaks in the employment cycle. This is a very real "fly in the ointment" of those expecting a resurgence of economic activity in the months ahead.”  Full story reposted at dShort.com, Doug Short Advisor Perspectives at…
http://advisorperspectives.com/dshort/guest/Lance-Roberts-130131-Help-Wanted-Indicator.php

MARKET RECAP

Friday, the S&P 500 was up 1% to 1,513 (rounded).  VIX fell nearly 10%, to 12.90 as the “Fear Index” once again proved there isn’t any.

NTSM

The NTSM analysis switched to BUY on Friday because VIX fell through the floor and Price was still positive.    

Sentiment is once again climbing into the cautionary range; Sentiment hit 59%-bulls yesterday calculated from selected Guggenheim (formerly Rydex) bull and bear funds.

There is plenty of conflict in the economic data.  So watching the market rather than all the economics is more important than ever.  I think there is a correction coming, but there is no point in exiting the market before there is a clear indication.

MY INVESTED POSITION

Based on a BUY signal 7 of 9-days, and more importantly, consecutive closes above the prior high of 1466, I moved into the stock market at 1471 on the S&P 500 on 14 January.  I am currently invested in a range of near 50% invested in stocks.