“The Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia’s barometer of regional manufacturing activity dropped further into negative territory this month, far below analysts’ expectations, on declines in overall activity and new orders…Negative readings indicate that a larger percentage of respondents said there was a decrease in the level of general business activity than the percentage who said there was an increase…Analysts warned against reading too much into the Philly Fed report, which is regional, and has been weaker than national data.” Full story…
http://www.marketwatch.com/story/us-manufacturing-growth-slows-down-2013-02-21
STRIKE THREE! THE AMERICAN CONSUMER IS OUT (CNBC)
"We see there's three meaningful headwinds on the
lower-income consumer this year that are taking place right now and in order of
importance, I'd put it first on the delay in tax refunds," said Peter
Keith, a senior research analyst at Piper Jaffray. "Secondly, I'd put it
on the payroll tax cut expiration that was mentioned earlier. And lastly, we're
starting to see gas prices go up." Full story at…http://www.cnbc.com/id/100481196
ECONOMIC INDICATOR SHOWS SLOWDOWN DEAD-AHEAD (ZeroHedge)
“The GLI is rotating from expansion to slowdown rapidly... the
drivers of the weakness are the Baltic Dry Index, Global PMIs, Global New
Orders Less Inventories, and Goldman's Aussie and Canadian Dollar TWI.”Full story at…
http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2013-02-21/global-leading-indicator-shows-slowdown-dead-ahead
The Philadelphia Federal Reserve report was a surprise
today and that may have impacted the markets.
The looming sequester is an issue, but most economists seem to rate it a
1% drag on the economy. That’s a pretty
big number, but not anywhere near the worry of the Fiscal Cliff. Most seem to think the sequester will be
short lived since the cuts are so poorly conceived. (See yesterday’s blog.)
It seems to me that we are seeing more negative reports
regarding the economy. Still, I don’t think we have seen a top in the
Markets yet.
Market internals reversed down today; if they drop much
faster I’d say it would confirm a correction.
As it stands now, the Jury is still out.
MARKET RECAP
Thursday, the
S&P 500 finished down 0.6% to 1,502 (rounded). There was some late day buying so that was good to see.
VIX was up 4% to
15.22.
NTSM
Thursday, the NTSM analysis remained HOLD at the. All indicators are neutral. Only Sentiment is on the verge of a sell signal, but the NTSM analysis won't switch to sell unless more indicators are negative.
MY INVESTED POSITION
Based on a BUY
signal 7 of 9-days, and more importantly, consecutive closes above the prior
high of 1466, I moved into the stock market at 1471 on the S&P 500 on 14
January. I am currently invested in a
range of near 50% invested in stocks.
