“The indicator for overall activity remained slightly positive this month, but other broad indicators were mixed. Indicators for new orders and employment were weaker this month. The survey's broad indicators of future activity suggest that firms expect continued growth, but optimism waned compared with last month.”
Story at: http://www.businessinsider.com/philadelphia-fed-manufacturing-april-2013-4#ixzz2QpIc7ieX
US UNEMPLOYMENT APPLICATIONS RISE (Denver Post)
“The number of Americans seeking unemployment benefits increased just
4,000 last week to a seasonally adjusted 352,000. The slight gain kept
applications at a level consistent with solid hiring and suggests March's
sluggish hiring may be temporary...."It appears that the modest growth of
the economy is continuing to support modest improvement in labor market
conditions," said Jim Baird, chief investment officer at Plante Moran
Financial Advisors.” Full story at... http://www.denverpost.com/breakingnews/ci_23051922/us-unemployment-aid-applications-rise-352k#ixzz2QpKkcXO5
That’s a curious spin; a slight rise is good news?
MARKET RECAP
Thursday, the S&P 500 was down 0.7% to 1542 (rounded). VIX rose 5% to 17.36.
Thursday, the S&P 500 was down 0.7% to 1542 (rounded). VIX rose 5% to 17.36.
NTSM
Thursday, the NTSM analysis was HOLD at the close, because the VIX indicator switched to neutral.
As expected, last night’s data brought the SENTIMENT indicator up to
63%-bulls and that officially made Sentiment a sell yesterday (Wednesday) to go
along with the PRICE and VIX that were already sell. This just reinforces the SELL call and makes
it more likely that NTSM is right.
In the past, signals that weren’t “right” are not necessarily
“wrong”. Say what?? What I mean is that
even when NTSM calls a sell and we don’t have a 10% or greater correction, I
have generally gotten back in the market very close to the exit point so I
haven’t lost money overall on “not-right” sell signals. (George Orwell would be proud.)
YESTERDAY’S BUY SIGNAL FOR TRADERS????
NO, it wasn’t. The S&P 500
closed down Thursday, so the action Wednesday was not considered a buying
opportunity by traders.MY INVESTED POSITION
I remain about 20% invested in stocks as of 5 March (S&P 500 -1540). My reasoning may be found at…
http://navigatethestockmarket.blogspot.com/2013/03/why-i-got-mostly-out-of-stock-market.html
…but now I have confirmation from the NTSM analysis which sold at 1575 on 16 April. (This is just another reminder that I should follow the NTSM analysis and not act emotionally – I am under-performing my own system by about 2%!)
I have no problems leaving 20% or 30% invested. If the market is cut in half (worst case) I’d
only lose 10%-15% of my investments. It
also hedges the bet if I am wrong since I will have some invested if the market
goes up. No system is perfect.
