JOBS
http://money.cnn.com/
US Job Creation Plunges, but Rate Drops to 7.6% (CNBC)
“Job creation slowed to a crawl
during March, with the U.S. economy creating just 88,000 positions though the
unemployment rate fell to 7.6 percent…Friday's report fell short of economist
expectations of 200,000 new jobs, confirming some of the weakness in recent
reports. Moreover, the drop in the jobless rate was little more than a
statistical anomaly, with the labor-force participation rate tumbling to a
34-year low of 63.3 percent.” Full story
at…http://www.cnbc.com/id/100618938
JOBS REPORT A “DISASTER”
“The 88,000 number is an unequivocally bad number for the
month” but “it’s also the most unreliable,” Brusca notes. “This number will be
revised up, don’t worry.” - Bob Brusca,
chief economist of FAO EconomicsFull story at…
http://finance.yahoo.com/blogs/daily-ticker/march-jobs-disaster-bad-report-don-t-panic-145114040.html
“Don’t worry…be happy.” – Stock market advice from Bobby
McFerrin
HIRING SURGE OVER
“The surge in employment fueled by part-time jobs and the
Obamacare effect may finally be over. Although the establishment survey showed
a gain of 88,000 jobs, the household survey, off which the unemployment rate is
based, showed a loss of 206,000 jobs.” – Mish Shedlock Full story at…http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com/2013/04/jobs-88000-unemployment-rate-76.html
CENTRAL BANKS
CREATING INSTABILITY – George Soros (ZeroHedge)
…the central
banks' actions are 'creating' increasing financial instability because,
"let's face it, quantitative easing is really, and directly, competitive
devaluation." Full story at…http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2013-04-05/george-soros-warns-central-banks-are-creating-financial-instability
WHY I THINK THE MARKET IS TOPPING
RE: Further details on why I think the market is topping
- here’s another one:
I calculate daily statistics that
track movements in price and volume. My
statistical analysis is a surprisingly accurate indicator that has warned of
every top in the past 2-yrs. It is not
one of my indicators in the NTSM system though, because while it does signal
trouble ahead, the warning comes about 1-month in advance. That is too much lead time to be effective in
calling a top; however, sometimes the indicator flashes sell again at the top. The statistical analysis began warning in
early February and again 8-trading days ago, and has continued through today.
MARKET RECAP
Friday, the S&P 500 finished fell 0.4% to 1553 (rounded).
Friday, the S&P 500 finished fell 0.4% to 1553 (rounded).
(If you told me yesterday that jobs would come in at less than half the
expected value and the market would only be down 0.4%; I wouldn’t have believed
you.)
VIX rose 0.2% to 13.92.
NTSM
Friday, the NTSM analysis remained HOLD at the close. The numerical analysis has not yet confirmed my “off-the-grid” top-call.
MY INVESTED POSITION
I remain about 20% invested in stocks as of 5 March (S&P 500 -1540),
due to my risk tolerance rather than the numerical NTSM analysis. To put it bluntly, I currently have no
tolerance for risk. (If I were strictly
following the NTSM numbers, I'd still be heavily invested in stocks.) My
reasoning may be found at…http://navigatethestockmarket.blogspot.com/2013/03/why-i-got-mostly-out-of-stock-market.html
