“Friday’s jobs report came in well below expectations, raising concerns that the recovery in the world's largest economy is weakening. March's participation rate was at its lowest since 1979, according to the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics. Just 88,000 jobs were added to the economy last month... ‘In the labor market, at least, we see a real risk of even worse news down the line,’ Ian Shepherdson, chief economist at Pantheon Macroeconomic Advisors said in a research note on Monday. ... The weakening [labor] demand is mostly coming from smaller firms that are below the radar of the Institute for Supply Management (ISM) survey, which reflects national factory activity...” - Matt Clinch, CNBC. Full story at... http://www.cnbc.com/id/100622802
As Mish Shedlock noted (and we reported here at http://navigatethestockmarket.blogspot.com/2013/03/fridays-unemployment-numbers-not-so.html
) most of the recent hiring has been due to an unintended consequence of
Obamacare – many employers are converting full-time employees to part time
employees to avoid health care expenses.
With that trend ending, we are left with the “real” employment - without
the Obamacare noise – and it’s not good.
MARKET RECAP
Monday, the S&P 500 finished up 0.6% to 1563 (rounded).
Monday, the S&P 500 finished up 0.6% to 1563 (rounded).
VIX fell 5% to 13.19.
I remain amazed that the employment number was less than half the
expected amount Friday and the markets fell less than one-half percent while
VIX was basically unchanged.
Unbelievable!
Even more surprising, when I reviewed the numbers over the weekend, the
volume actually was 89% of the previous low (2-days before) and breadth
improved. Many would consider those
technicals to be signaling, “correction-over, time to buy”. That made today’s (Monday’s) market action
important and the buy-the-dip crowd took the bait…but not whole heartedly. Monday’s volume was almost 15% below the
normal for the month – a very low reading.
Still, this likely signals another move up so maybe the S&P 500 will
actually move up to its upper trend line.
If it did, that would put it at a new high of (about) 1600, but
first we need to get past the old high of 1570 (not my most insightful comment).
NTSM
Monday, the NTSM analysis remained HOLD at the close.
MY INVESTED POSITION
I remain about 20% invested in stocks as of 5 March (S&P 500 -1540),
due to my risk tolerance rather than the numerical NTSM analysis. To put it bluntly, I currently have no
tolerance for risk. (If I were strictly
following the NTSM numbers, I'd still be heavily invested in stocks.) My
reasoning may be found at…http://navigatethestockmarket.blogspot.com/2013/03/why-i-got-mostly-out-of-stock-market.html
