“Payrolls rose by 162,000, the least in four months, and the jobless rate dropped to 7.4 percent from 7.6 percent. The workweek shrank, and hourly earnings fell for the first time since October… “This isn’t a disaster of a report but it shows the U.S. remains vulnerable to a slower economic-growth performance,” said Julia Coronado, chief economist for North America at BNP Paribas in New York… “
Full story at…
“The previous two months were revised lower. The employment change for May revised down by 19,000 (from +195,000 to +176,000), and the employment change for June revised down by 7,000 (from +195,000 to +188,000).”
…The unemployment rate dropped 0.2 to at 7.4%.
…Were it not for people dropping out of the labor force, the unemployment rate would be over 9%. In addition, there are 8,245,000 people who are working part-time but want full-time work…A year ago there were 8,245,000. There has been no improvement in a year…
…Digging under the surface, much of the drop in the unemployment rate over the past two years is nothing but a statistical mirage coupled with a massive increase in part-time jobs starting in October 2012.” Analysis at…
"…the economist defines "speculative bubble" as "a situation in which news of price increases spurs investor enthusiasm, which spreads by psychological contagion from person to person…"
“…usually, bubbles burst on their own. It's like it goes too far, gets overextended and bursts. And it's not usually due to higher rates, or anything you can pin your explanation on." – Robert Shiller, Yale Professor and author of “Irrational Exuberance.”
Friday, the S&P was UP 0.16% to 1610 (rounded).
VIX collapsed more than 7% to 11.98.
The NTSM analysis is now underperforming the 2013 S&P 500 by 11%...ouch.
VOLUME is neutral. If there is some bullish action over the next few days, the Volume indicator will switch to a “buy”. If that happens, the NTSM system will signal a “Buy” even with the negative Sentiment reading. The last “Buy” signal was 1 February 2013. This the longest time I can remember without a “Buy” call. There have been 17 “Sell” signals over that period and that has been the basis for my negative stance on the market.