“‘There have been multiple occurrences of the Hindenburg Omen in the last several weeks,’ [Art] Cashin, the director of floor operations at UBS, said in his morning note…[He cited the following from SentimenTrader's Jason Goepfert]
‘With the latest market rally, the Omens are flaring up
again. There have been 5 Omens triggered out of the past 8 trading sessions
(your data may vary—we're using the same sources we've always used for
historical data). That's actually the closest-grouped cluster since early
November 2007. It's extremely rare to
see as many Omens occurring together as we've seen over the past 50 days. The
last time was prior to the bear market in 2007.
The time before that was prior to the bear market in 2000.’” Story and
video from CNBC at…
http://www.cnbc.com/id/100955925
Not since 2000?
2007? Ouch! Hindenburg Omen is a
collection of technical indicators that have usually (but not always) presaged
market troubles.
BUYBACK BINGE: ANOTHER SIGN OF A MARKET PEAK - HOCHBERG (Yahoo
Finance, Breakout)
“It has been six years since we last saw a spike in stock
buybacks, and it has also been six years since we last saw a market crash. While some might dismiss that fact as mere coincidence, for
Steve Hochberg, chief market analyst at Elliott Wave
International, it's proof that another major correction is about to
occur.
"It has occurred cycle, over cycle, over cycle. It
occurred 1999. It occurred in 2007. And now it's occurring again,"
Hochberg says of the trend that shows a spate of share repurchases is a warning
sign rather than a positive indicator that the people who know the company best
see value.” Story and video from Yahoo
Finance at…
http://finance.yahoo.com/blogs/breakout/buyback-binge-another-sign-market-peak-says-elliott-123944555.html
RETAIL SALES UP (Bloomberg)
“Retail sales
rose in July for a fourth consecutive month, showing the U.S. economy is breaking
free of the effects of higher taxes and federal budget cuts…The 0.2 percent
increase followed a 0.6 percent gain in June that was larger than previously
reported, according to Commerce Department figures issued today in Washington.”
Story at… http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2013-08-13/retail-sales-in-u-s-rose-in-july-for-fourth-consecutive-month.html
A 0.2% increase is not much, but it was in-line with
economist’s consensus estimates at Briefing.com.
MARKET REPORT
Tuesday, the S&P was up 0.3% to 1694 (rounded).
VIX was down 4% to 12.31. Tuesday, the S&P was up 0.3% to 1694 (rounded).
The options boys just don’t believe that
there will be a correction!
MARKET INTERNALS (NYSE DATA)
The 10-day moving average of stocks
advancing on the NYSE was down a bit to 47% at the close. Usually a value below 50% signals additional
trouble for the markets. For the day
only 41% of stocks advanced!
New-lows of 187 outpaced the new-highs of
130 today leaving the spread at -57 with the 10-day change in spread heading
down.
Today’s reading of Internals is negative on
the market and I was surprised to see them significantly down given that the
S&P 500 was up. This suggests
tomorrow (Wednesday) will be a downer.
NTSM
Tuesday, the overall NTSM analysis was HOLD at
the close.
Indicators follow:
VIX is signaling “all clear” and is quite
positive.PRICE is positive.
SENTIMENT remains negative.
VOLUME is stuck in neutral.
Unless the indicators come to more agreement,
the NTSM will remain HOLD.
MY INVESTED POSITION
I remain about 20% invested in stocks as of 5 March (S&P 500
-1540). The NTSM system sold at
1575 on 16 April. (This is just another
reminder that I should follow the NTSM analysis and not act emotionally – I am
under-performing my own system by about 2%!)
I have no problems leaving 20% or 30% invested. If the market is cut in half (worst case) I’d
only lose 10%-15% of my investments. It
also hedges the bet if I am wrong since I will have some invested if the market
goes up. No system is perfect.
