“Richmond Federal Reserve Bank President Jeffrey Lacker made a case Sunday for ending QE3: the costs of asset purchases are rising and any future benefits are likely to be small. “The data in the first half of the year in my view is confirming my sense that the asset purchases were unlikely to have a noticeable effect on growth, ” Lacker said in an interview with the Richmond Times Dispatch on Sunday.” Story at…
http://blogs.marketwatch.com/capitolreport/2013/08/19/feds-lacker-more-asset-purchases-just-wont-help-economy/
Full Lacker interview from the Richmond Times Dispatch
at…
http://www.timesdispatch.com/business/national-international/fed-s-lacker-sees-tough-choices-ahead-for-u-s/article_14c5ff6c-b37d-5492-8dac-d338cf5421bc.html
ALARM BELLS AT 10-YR TREASURY OF 2.9% (CNBC)
“Art Cashin says "alarm bells" will go off for
stocks if the yield on the 10-year Treasury note hits 2.9 percent. Cashin, UBS' director of floor operations at
the NYSE, also told CNBC's Bob Pisani at midday that rising interest rates are
already causing some problems for stocks in emerging markets like Thailand,
India and Indonesia.” Video and summary
from CNBC at…http://www.cnbc.com/id/100972141
CHICAGO FWD NATIONAL ACTIVITY INDEX – BELOW AVG GROWTH
(Forex Factory)
“Index shows economic growth in July again below average
The Chicago Fed National Activity Index (CFNAI) edged up to –0.15 in July
from–0.23 in June.” Story at…http://www.forexfactory.com/news.php?do=news&id=443135
MARKET REPORT
Tuesday, the S&P was Up 0.4% to 1652 (rounded) at the close.
The S&P 500 again sold off in the last hour when the pros are in
action.Tuesday, the S&P was Up 0.4% to 1652 (rounded) at the close.
VIX was down 1% to 14.91
MARKET INTERNALS (NYSE DATA)
The 10-day moving average of stocks
advancing on the NYSE rose to 42% at the close.
Usually a value below 50% signals additional trouble for the markets.
New-lows still outpaced new-highs today
leaving the spread at -221 with the 10-day change in spread still trending
down.
Today’s reading of Internals is negative on
the market and suggests the market is likely to continue its downward trend,
although a temporary bounce is possible.
NTSM
Tuesday, the overall NTSM analysis was HOLD at
the close.
MY INVESTED POSITION
I remain about 20% invested in stocks as of 5 March (S&P 500
-1540). The NTSM system sold at
1575 on 16 April. (This is just another
reminder that I should follow the NTSM analysis and not act emotionally – I am
under-performing my own system by about 2%!)
I have no problems leaving 20% or 30% invested. If the market is cut in half (worst case) I’d only lose 10%-15% of my investments. It also hedges the bet if I am wrong since I will have some invested if the market goes up. No system is perfect.
