GDP (Briefing.com)
“Second quarter GDP was revised up to 2.5% in the second estimate from a previously reported 1.7%. That is up from a 1.1% gain in Q1 2013. The Briefing.com consensus expected second quarter GDP to be revised to 2.1%...Overall, the upward revision to GDP growth does not suggest that the underlying currents of weak growth are ending. Almost the entire upward revision came from a stronger-than-originally reported trade deficit, which is likely to reverse in the third quarter. That means the increase in GDP pulled potential growth from the third quarter into the second and was not the result of a strengthening economic situation…Even after the upward revision to second quarter GDP, expectations for future growth remain soft.” Full story with charts and analysis at…
http://www.briefing.com/Investor/Calendars/Economic/Releases/gdp.htm
INITIAL JOBLESS CLAIMS DROP (LA Times)
“The number of people filing for first-time unemployment
benefits fell to a seasonally adjusted 331,000 last week from the previous
week's revised figure of 337,000. Analysts had expected the number to drop to 332,000.”Story at…
http://www.latimes.com/business/money/la-fi-mo-weekly-jobless-claims-economy-20130829,0,5625754.story
SUMMERS AS FED CHIEF – BLACK SWAN EVENT (CNBC)
“Speculation that Larry Summers is the favored candidate
to take over Ben Bernanke as Fed chief has resurfaced in recent weeks,
prompting a strong backlash from some industry watchers, with one going as far
as labeling his potential appointment as a ‘black swan’ event….…Summers is seen as a greater hawk between the two, which analysts say could mean the rapid unwinding of the massive U.S. monetary stimulus that has supported the economy. ‘That could be the black swan that people aren't expecting,’ Bouroudjian said.’” Story at…
http://www.cnbc.com/id/100995386
MARKET REPORT
Thursday, the S&P was up 0.2% to 1638 (rounded) at the close.
VIX was up 2% to 16.81.Thursday, the S&P was up 0.2% to 1638 (rounded) at the close.
The Pros sold late in the day and VIX went up, so maybe traders are
preparing for the return of market participants. Volume has been 10-20% below normal this
week, depending on the day, so we can’t
place too much value in any of this week’s data.
MARKET INTERNALS (NYSE DATA)
The 10-day moving average of stocks
advancing on the NYSE broke up to 49% at the close Thursday, a big improvement
over yesterday. Any number below 50%
suggests trouble for the market.
New-lows slightly outpaced new-highs today
leaving the spread at -4 (it was -43 yesterday), with the 10-day moving average
of change in spread now up.
Today’s reading of Internals is mixed so let’s wait and see what happens next week. The pre-Holiday trading has been slow and
choppy with almost daily reversals.
NTSM
Thursday, the overall NTSM analysis was HOLD
at the close.
MY INVESTED POSITION
I remain about 20% invested in stocks as of 5 March (S&P 500
-1540). The NTSM system sold at
1575 on 16 April. (This is just another
reminder that I should follow the NTSM analysis and not act emotionally – I am
under-performing my own system by about 2%!)
I have no problems leaving 20% or 30% invested. If the market is cut in half (worst case) I’d
only lose 10%-15% of my investments. It
also hedges the bet if I am wrong since I will have some invested if the market
goes up. No system is perfect.
