Tuesday, March 7, 2017

Consumer Credit … GDP Forecast Falls to 1.3% … ETF Buying Suggests Top … Stock Market Analysis … Trading ETFs and ETF Ranking

CONSUMER CREDIT (MarketWatch)
“Consumer borrowing rose $14.2 billion in December, well below Wall Street expectations, as credit-card use increased at a much slower pace that in the prior month.” Story at…
 
GDP-NOW (Atlanta Federal Reserve)
“The GDPNow model forecast for real GDP growth (seasonally adjusted annual rate) in the first quarter of 2017 is 1.3 percent on March 7, down from 1.8 percent on March 1.
 
The forecasts for first-quarter real personal consumption expenditures growth and real nonresidential equipment investment growth fell from 2.1 percent and 9.1 percent, respectively, to 1.8 percent and 7.3 percent, respectively, after Thursday's motor vehicles sales release from the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis. The forecast of the contribution of inventory investment to first-quarter growth fell from -0.50 percentage points to -0.72 percentage points after yesterday's manufacturing report from the U.S. Census Bureau.” For more see…
My cmt: What the…? We’ll have to see how the GDP numbers play out.  There is a lot of variability in these guesses; yes, in my opinion the FED is just making an educated guess. I have no idea if this will influence FED thinking regarding future rate hikes.  They have already signaled a hike in March. See the chart below for the historical chart of Fed Funds.