“Consumer sentiment last month rose to the second-highest
level since 2004 and plentiful job opportunities buoyed Americans’ spirits amid
stock-market volatility, a University of Michigan survey showed Friday.” Story
at…
MARKET REPORT / ANALYSIS
-Friday the S&P 500 was UP about 0.5% to 2691.
-VIX was DOWN about 13% to 19.59.
-The yield on the 10-year Treasury rose to 2.863%.
Today, my sum of 17 Indicators dropped from -2 to -11.
Negative numbers are bearish since this is just a sum of positive and negative
indicators. The smoothed version has stalled and remains neutral.
The Index remains below its 50-dMA (2736) so now it will
have to break above it before we feel more positive.
My trend-following indicators are currently bearish as
one might expect. The Topping indicators (Sentiment; Breadth vs. the S&P
500) are close to signaling a top and that’s scary. RSI & Bollinger Bands
are currently neutral.
I am going to continue to watch and decide later on the
need to add or subtract from stock holdings. Friday there was a positive close
with positive late-day action. Closing Tick (sum of last trades of the day) was
+310. Those are positive signs and usually lead to an up-day for the next
trading session. Whether that will
follow thru to the upside or lead to more selling is something we can’t
predict. The Wall Street computers seem to be in control.
TODAY’S RANKING OF
15 ETFs (Ranked Daily)
The top ranked ETF receives 100%. The rest are then
ranked based on their momentum relative to the leading ETF. While momentum isn’t stock performance per
se, momentum is closely related to stock performance. For example, over the 4-months
from Oct thru mid-February 2016, the number 1 ranked Financials (XLF) outperformed
the S&P 500 by nearly 20%. In 2017 Technology (XLK) was ranked in the top 3
Momentum Plays for 52% of all trading days in 2017 (if I counted correctly.)
XLK was up 35% on the year while the S&P 500 was up 18%.
*For additional background on the ETF ranking system see
NTSM Page at…
TODAY’S RANKING OF THE DOW 30 STOCKS (Ranked Daily)
The top ranked stock receives 100%. The rest are then
ranked based on their momentum relative to the leading stock.
*I rank the Dow 30 similarly to the ETF ranking system.
For more details, see NTSM Page at…
FRIDAY MARKET INTERNALS (NYSE DATA)
Market Internals
are Negative on the market.
Market Internals are a decent trend-following analysis of
current market action, but should not be used alone for short term trading.
They are usually right, but they are often late. They are most useful when they diverge from
the Index. In 2014, using these
internals alone would have made a 9% return vs. 13% for the S&P 500 (in on Positive,
out on Negative – no shorting).
LONG TERM INDICATOR
Friday, the VIX
indicator was negative; Volume, Sentiment and Price were neutral.
MY INVESTED STOCK POSITION:
TSP (RETIREMENT ACCOUNT – GOV EMPLOYEES) ALLOCATION
Today, 27
February, I increased stock holdings from 40% to 50% with the remainder in a
mix of stocks and (mostly short-term) bonds. (A comparable TSP allocation would
be 50% in the S&P 500 Index fund (C-Fund) with the remainder 50% G-Fund
(Government securities). This is a conservative retiree position.
