PERSONAL SPENDING (Reuters)
“U.S. consumer spending rose marginally for a second
straight month in February as households boosted savings, the latest indication
the economy lost momentum in the first quarter.” Story at…
This is thought to be the FED’s favorite inflation gauge.
PCE PRICES (CNBC)
“There
was also a moderation in monthly inflation readings after prices
pushed higher in January. The personal consumption expenditures (PCE) price
index excluding the volatile food and energy components rose 0.2 percent last
month after advancing 0.3 percent in January. That lifted the year-on-year
increase in the so-called core PCE price index to 1.6 percent, the biggest gain
since February 2017…” Story at…
JOBLESS CLAIMS (MarketWatch)
“Initial U.S. jobless claims declined by 12,000 to
215,000 in the seven days ended March 24…” story at…
CHICAGO PMI (Peoples Pundit Daily)
“The MNI Chicago Business Barometer (PMI) unexpectedly
fell 4.5 points to 57.4 in March, down from 61.9 in February, hitting the
lowest level in exactly one year. The Institute for Supply Management (ISM)
said growth in the Barometer, which has been extraordinarily strong, moderated
for a third straight month.” Story at…
MICHIGAN SENTIMENT (Bloomberg)
“Consumer sentiment in March reached the highest level
since 2004 as a solid labor market and growth expectations offset concerns
about tariffs and stock-market volatility, a University of Michigan survey
showed Thursday.” Story at…
ECRI LEADING INDICATORS TURN DOWN (Financial Sense)
Right now, ECRI's leading indicators are pointing down,
both for the United States and for the global economy. “The growth rates of our
long leading indicators have turned down,” he said. “That tells us that the
synchronized global growth upturn that we've all been enjoying last year is
drawing to a close and in fact may already be over.” ECRI’s approach is to look
at a large array of leading indexes, with each leading index a composite of a
handful of good leading indicators of the current cycle. Their long leading
index provides a three to four quarters lead, on average, at turning points, he
noted.” Commentary at…
https://www.financialsense.com/fs-staff/lakshman-achuthan-cyclical-downturn-not-recession-cards-2018
Let’s hope
their indicators are more accurate this time.
They famously called a recession a few years back. It was famously
wrong.
