“U.S. consumers spent less at auto dealers, gas stations
and department stores in February, causing overall retail sales to slip 0.1%. It
was the third consecutive month of declining retail sales…” Story at…
PRODUCER PRICE INDEX (Reuters)
“U.S. producer prices increased slightly more than
expected in February as a rise in the cost of services offset a decline in the
price of goods… That lifted the year-on-year increase in the PPI to 2.8 percent
in February from 2.7 percent in January.” Story at…
CRUDE INVENTRIES (OilPrice.com)
“After plunging oil bulls into deeper gloom by
forecasting a 131,000-bpd jump
in shale oil production next month, the Energy Information Administration reported a
5-million-barrel increase in crude oil inventories for the week to March 9…”
Story at…
MARKET REPORT / ANALYSIS
-Wednesday the S&P 500 was Down about 0.6% to 2749.
-VIX was UP about 5% to 17.23.
-The yield on the 10-year Treasury slipped to 2.817%.
50-dMA of the S&P 500 was 2747 today. The Index was
in that area 5 or 6 times before slipping down to 2744 late in the day. It
rallied from there to close just above the 50-day (0.1%). That’s somewhat
positive, but we’re going to have to wait to see whether the 50-dMA and my
trend line at about 2739 are going to hold.
If the trend-line is significantly broken, it may be time to sell again.
My sum of 17 Indicators was unchanged at +3, but the
smoothed version remains down.
10-day Breadth moved up to 57%; that means over the last
10-days, 57% of the stocks on the NYSE have moved up and that’s now signaling
overbought on the advance-decline ratio.
A few negative signs remain:
-New-Highs are still falling when measured on a long-term
basis. Usually, this indicator bottoms when the S&P 500 makes a bottom so
it’s a worry that is still there.
-The Advance-decline ratio is signaling overbought. This
one is usually early and I’ll ignore it for now. Now, it’s all about the chart and whether we
can hold above 2739. A lot of traders will be watching the 50-dMA at 2747.
TODAY’S RANKING OF
15 ETFs (Ranked Daily)
The top ranked ETF receives 100%. The rest are then
ranked based on their momentum relative to the leading ETF. While momentum isn’t stock performance per
se, momentum is closely related to stock performance. For example, over the 4-months
from Oct thru mid-February 2016, the number 1 ranked Financials (XLF) outperformed
the S&P 500 by nearly 20%. In 2017 Technology (XLK) was ranked in the top 3
Momentum Plays for 52% of all trading days in 2017 (if I counted correctly.)
XLK was up 35% on the year while the S&P 500 was up 18%.
*For additional background on the ETF ranking system see
NTSM Page at…
TODAY’S RANKING OF THE DOW 30 STOCKS (Ranked Daily)
The top ranked stock receives 100%. The rest are then
ranked based on their momentum relative to the leading stock.
*I rank the Dow 30 similarly to the ETF ranking system.
For more details, see NTSM Page at…
Boeing (BA) has
slipped to #3 on fears that the Chinese will retaliate against US tariffs by
placing their own restrictions on Boeing.
WEDNESDAY MARKET INTERNALS (NYSE DATA)
Market Internals remained
Positive on the market.
Market Internals are a decent trend-following analysis of
current market action but should not be used alone for short term trading. They
are usually right, but they are often late.
They are most useful when they diverge from the Index. In 2014, using these internals alone would
have made a 9% return vs. 13% for the S&P 500 (in on Positive, out on
Negative – no shorting).
LONG TERM INDICATOR
Wednesday, the VIX
indicator was negative; Price was positive; Sentiment and Volume were neutral.
MY INVESTED STOCK POSITION:
TSP (RETIREMENT ACCOUNT – GOV EMPLOYEES) ALLOCATION
27 February, I
increased stock holdings from 40% to 50% with the remainder in a mix of stocks
and (mostly short-term) bonds. (A comparable TSP allocation would be 50% in the
S&P 500 Index fund (C-Fund) with the remainder 50% G-Fund (Government
securities). This is a conservative retiree position.
