“Durable-goods orders rose 1% in June, the first increase
in three months…Orders minus transportation rose 0.4%, the
government said. Excluding defense, orders rose 1.5%.” Story at…
JOBLESS CLAIMS (Reuters)
“The number of Americans filing for unemployment benefits
rose from a more than 48-1/2-year low last week, but continued to point to a
tightening labor market. Initial claims for state unemployment benefits
increased 9,000 to a seasonally adjusted 217,000 for the week ended July 2…”
Story at…
MARKET REPORT / ANALYSIS
-Thursday the S&P 500 dipped about 0.3% to 2837.
-VIX was down about 1% to 12.14.
-The yield on the 10-year Treasury little changed at 2.977%.
My daily sum of 17 Indicators slipped from +4 to +3 (not
a significant change) while the 10-day smoothed version that negates the daily
fluctuations was unchanged at -14, indicating that conditions in the market are
similar to 2-weeks ago. This is a mildly bullish indication.
Not much change from yesterday, except that Money Trend was/is
down, not up; I was wrong yesterday. Smart Money (based on late day action) is
turning up. 10-day Breadth improved today again. RSI remans elevated. Bollinger
Bands haven’t indicated overbought yet.
I remain fully invested.
MOMENTUM ANALYSIS:
TODAY’S RANKING OF
15 ETFs (Ranked Daily)
The top ranked ETF receives 100%. The rest are then
ranked based on their momentum relative to the leading ETF. While momentum isn’t stock performance per
se, momentum is closely related to stock performance. For example, over the 4-months
from Oct thru mid-February 2016, the number 1 ranked Financials (XLF) outperformed
the S&P 500 by nearly 20%. In 2017 Technology (XLK) was ranked in the top 3
Momentum Plays for 52% of all trading days in 2017 (if I counted correctly.)
XLK was up 35% on the year while the S&P 500 was up 18%.
*For additional background on the ETF ranking system see
NTSM Page at…
TODAY’S RANKING OF THE DOW 30 STOCKS (Ranked Daily)
The top ranked stock receives 100%. The rest are then
ranked based on their momentum relative to the leading stock.
*I rank the Dow 30 similarly to the ETF ranking system.
For more details, see NTSM Page at…
THURSDAY MARKET INTERNALS (NYSE DATA)
Market Internals remained
Positive on the market.
Market Internals are a decent trend-following analysis of
current market action but should not be used alone for short term trading. They
are usually right, but they are often late.
They are most useful when they diverge from the Index. In 2014, using these internals alone would
have made a 9% return vs. 13% for the S&P 500 (in on Positive, out on
Negative – no shorting).
18 Apr 2018 I
increased stock investments from 35% to 50% based on the Intermediate/Long-Term
Indicator that turned positive on the 17th. (It has since turned Neutral.) For
me, fully invested is a balanced 50% stock portfolio. 50% is my minimum unless
I am in full defense mode.
On 10 May 2018 I
added stock positions to increase Stock investments to 58% based on more
evidence that the correction is over. This is high for me given that we are
late in this cycle (and as a retiree), but it indicates my bullishness after
the correction. I’ll sell these new positions quickly if the market turns down.
INTERMEDIATE / LONG-TERM INDICATOR
Intermediate/Long-Term
Indicator: Thursday, the Price indicator was positive; Volume, VIX &
Sentiment indicators were neutral. Overall this is a NEUTRAL indication.
