“U.S. central bankers discussed raising interest rates
soon to counter excessive economic strength but also examined how global trade
disputes could batter businesses and households, minutes of the Federal
Reserve’s last policy meeting showed on Wednesday…PARTICIPANTS GENERALLY
EXPECTED FURTHER GRADUAL HIKES…” Story at…
CRUDE INVENTORIES (OilPrice.com)
“Crude oil prices jumped on Wednesday following the
Energy Information Administrations’ latest weekly petroleum status report, with
the authority confirming a
draw in crude oil inventories of 5.8 million barrels for the week to August 17.”
Story at…
HOME SALES (Builderonline.com)
“Existing-home sales slid for the fourth straight month
in July to the slowest pace in more than two years, the National Association of
Realtors reported Wednesday. The West was the only region with an increase
in sales last month. Total existing-home sales decreased 0.7% to a seasonally
adjusted annual rate of 5.34 million in July from 5.38 million in June.” Story
at…
MARKET REPORT / ANALYSIS
-Wednesday the S&P 500 slipped about a point to 2862.
-VIX dropped about 5% to 12.25
-The yield on the 10-year Treasury was down to 2.816% as
of this post.
Currently, my daily sum of 17 Indicators slipped slightly
from +9 to +8 (a positive number is bullish) while the 10-day smoothed version
that negates the daily fluctuations improved from -28 to -17.
Overall, indicators are getting more bullish. Today’s blog is a repeat of yesterday. Not
much has changed, so just read yesterday’s notes for market analysis.
I remain fully invested…at least until we see some more
signs of trouble.
MOMENTUM ANALYSIS:
TODAY’S RANKING OF
15 ETFs (Ranked Daily)
The top ranked ETF receives 100%. The rest are then
ranked based on their momentum relative to the leading ETF. While momentum isn’t stock performance per
se, momentum is closely related to stock performance. For example, over the
4-months from Oct thru mid-February 2016, the number 1 ranked Financials (XLF)
outperformed the S&P 500 by nearly 20%. In 2017 Technology (XLK) was ranked
in the top 3 Momentum Plays for 52% of all trading days in 2017 (if I counted
correctly.) XLK was up 35% on the year while the S&P 500 was up 18%.
*For additional background on the ETF ranking system see
NTSM Page at…
TODAY’S RANKING OF THE DOW 30 STOCKS (Ranked Daily)
The top ranked stock receives 100%. The rest are then
ranked based on their momentum relative to the leading stock.
*I rank the Dow 30 similarly to the ETF ranking system.
For more details, see NTSM Page at…
WEDNESDAY MARKET INTERNALS (NYSE DATA)
Market Internals
remained POSITIVE on the market.
Market Internals are a decent trend-following analysis of
current market action but should not be used alone for short term trading. They
are usually right, but they are often late.
They are most useful when they diverge from the Index. In 2014, using these internals alone would
have made a 9% return vs. 13% for the S&P 500 (in on Positive, out on
Negative – no shorting).
I am now 50% invested in stocks. For me, fully invested
is a balanced 50% stock portfolio. As a retiree, this is a position with which
I am comfortable unless I am in full defense mode or feeling especially
optimistic.
INTERMEDIATE / LONG-TERM INDICATOR
Intermediate/Long-Term
Indicator: Wednesday, the Price indicator was positive; Volume & VIX
indicators were neutral; Sentiment was bearish. Overall this is still a NEUTRAL
indication.
