“Initial jobless claims, a tracker of sorts for layoffs
in the U.S., crept higher at the end of July but clung near a half-century low.
New claims inched up by
1,000 to 218,000 in the seven days from July 22 to July 28.” Story
at…
FACTORY ORDERS (Reuters)
“New orders for U.S.-made goods rose for a second
straight month in June, but business spending plans on equipment were not as
strong as initially thought, suggesting a further slowdown was likely in the
third quarter. Factory goods orders increased 0.7 percent…” Story at…
P/E10 APPROACHING 1929 LEVELS (Advisor Perspectives)
“The historic P/E10 average is 16.8…We can also use a
percentile analysis to put today's market valuation in the historical context.
As the chart below illustrates, latest P/E10 ratio is approximately at about
the 97th percentile of this series.” [We are now 96.7% with 100% the absolute
max.]
Commentary and charts at…
MARKET REPORT / ANALYSIS
-Thursday the S&P 500 was up about 0.5% to 2827.
-VIX dropped about 7% to 12.19.
-The yield on the 10-year Treasury slipped to 2.986%.
My daily sum of 17 Indicators remained -5 while the
10-day smoothed version that negates the daily fluctuations slipped from -16 to
-17. Bottom line: Thursday looks a lot like Wednesday. Indicators seem to be in
flux – it is not yet clear whether we will see some more serious selling start
up or if the market will continue higher.
So far, it does not look like this shaky patch in the market will lead
to a big selloff. Indicators are not screaming sell, but we can’t be sure, so
stay tuned. At this point, 2780 looks like a strong support point if the market
does slip down.
I remain fully invested.
MOMENTUM ANALYSIS:
TODAY’S RANKING OF
15 ETFs (Ranked Daily)
*For additional background on the ETF ranking system see
NTSM Page at…
TODAY’S RANKING OF THE DOW 30 STOCKS (Ranked Daily)
The top ranked stock receives 100%. The rest are then
ranked based on their momentum relative to the leading stock.
*I rank the Dow 30 similarly to the ETF ranking system.
For more details, see NTSM Page at…
Intel took a huge hit today, dropping 8.6% due to trade
war/tariff concerns. I suspect this is overblown. Intel has a PE of 21 (vs.??
for the Dow 30) and a Dividend yield of 2.3%...seems like a value buy to me. As
shown above, it ranks 21st in the Dow 30 momentum trading system and
that’s not good.
THURSDAY MARKET INTERNALS (NYSE DATA)
Market Internals remained
NEUTRAL on the market.
Market Internals are a decent trend-following analysis of
current market action but should not be used alone for short term trading. They
are usually right, but they are often late.
They are most useful when they diverge from the Index. In 2014, using these internals alone would
have made a 9% return vs. 13% for the S&P 500 (in on Positive, out on
Negative – no shorting).
18 Apr 2018 I
increased stock investments from 35% to 50% based on the Intermediate/Long-Term
Indicator that turned positive on the 17th. (It has since turned Neutral.) For
me, fully invested is a balanced 50% stock portfolio. 50% is my minimum unless
I am in full defense mode.
On 10 May 2018 I
added stock positions to increase Stock investments to 58% based on more
evidence that the correction is over. This is high for me given that we are
late in this cycle (and as a retiree), but it indicates my bullishness after
the correction. I’ll sell these new positions quickly if the market turns down.
INTERMEDIATE / LONG-TERM INDICATOR
Intermediate/Long-Term
Indicator: Thursday, the Price indicator was positive; Volume, VIX &
Sentiment indicators were neutral. Overall this is a NEUTRAL indication.
